Will Joakim go Top 5 on Draft Night?The first time we rolled out our ‘07 mock draft, it wasn’t so much based on what we thought will happen, but what we thought should happen on June 28. But who are we kidding? Even in a year when the Top 2 spots are fool-proof, that still leaves 58 other chances for the front-office guys to make stupid decisions. Just look at some of the players chosen ahead of Paul Millsap, last year’s 47th pick: Solomon Jones, James Augustine and Bobby Jones all went before Millsap (an invaluable contributor on a conference finals team) along with a bunch of guys we’ve still never seen on an NBA court, like Lior Eliyahu, Marcus Vinicius, Kosta Perovic and Joel Freeland. And it’s not like Millsap was some diamond-in-the-ruff coming out of college — he led the NCAA in rebounding THREE YEARS IN A ROW. So this time we’re dropping idealism for realism and predicting what will most likely happen in the Lottery …
1. Portland Trail Blazers — Greg Oden, C, Ohio State. If there is a raging debate going on in the Blazers’ war room come draft night (other than “pizza or wings?”) the measurements and combine numbers at the Orlando pre-draft camp will tilt the scales in Oden’s favor over Kevin Durant. The next Tim Duncan measures a legit 7-feet with shoes on, has a 7-foot-4 wingspan, and outperformed KD in speed, agility and vertical leap drills. Plus he has less than 8 percent body fat, which is off the charts for a big man. Another factor to consider: if (when) Duncan and the Spurs win the NBA title in the next few days — further proof that a dominant big man is the key to winning in the NBA — Oden’s chances at being the No. 1 pick improve that much more. If LeBron’s Cavs pull off the miracle upset, score one for Durant.
2. Seattle Supersonics — Kevin Durant, SF, Texas. The last time we did the mock draft, Durant was listed as a “SF/PF.” But after he couldn’t even put up 185 pounds on the bench press once in Orlando, you can get the “PF” out of here. Not saying the bench-press numbers mean a lot — nobody plays ball in a weight room, after all — but it does give an indication that Durant is better served reigning buckets from the perimeter and off the wing than trying to post up with the bigs.
3. Atlanta Hawks — Al Horford, PF, Florida. Everyone knows the Hawks need a point guard, and everyone knows Mike Conley is the top prospect at the position. (We’d argue that Acie Law is a better all-around player than Conley right now, but potential always trumps production in the draft.) There is a chance, though, that the Hawks could land Conley with their second pick at No. 11 or use that pick to trade up higher into the Top 10 for Conley, giving them room to use the No. 3 pick on someone with size. Did they use a Top-5 pick on power forward Shelden Williams last year? Yeah, but that’s never stopped them before.
4. Memphis Grizzlies — Joakim Noah, C, Florida. Why not? The Grizzlies need a tough guy in the paint more than they need an inside scorer, and if we’re going to battle, we’d take Noah over Brandan Wright in a heartbeat. Back when it looked like the Suns were going to get ATL’s Lottery pick, everyone said Joakim would be a great fit in Phoenix. With Memphis going to an up-tempo, Phoenix-like system, Joakim would be a great fit here, too.
5. Boston Celtics — Corey Brewer, SF, Florida. With the rumors flying around that Boston is trying to acquire Rashard Lewis and/or Shawn Marion in a trade, obviously they see a need at the three spot. For the sake of Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers’ rep, they need to pick someone who won’t get them killed in the media or by Boston fans, and no one would argue with Brewer given his college pedigree and across-the-board skills.
6. Milwaukee Bucks — Mike Conley, PG, Ohio State. Here’s where the Hawks choke on their war-room snacks, wondering “Why didn’t we think of Milwaukee?” when they chose to leave Conley on the board. Mo Williams is a free agent, and if he leaves, the Bucks don’t have one true PG on their roster. It’s Earl Boykins, Charlie Bell and Lynn Greer. They might need Conley as much as anyone.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves — Brandan Wright, PF, North Carolina. Do the Wolves need a power forward, with KG, Craig Smith and now Juwan Howard reportedly already on the roster? No. Is Wright getting so much hype that teams who don’t even need him might take him anyway? Yes. Is Kevin McHale one of the League’s worst personnel decision-makers? Yes. 2 + 2 = 4.
8. Charlotte Bobcats — Spencer Hawes, C, Washington. An upgrade over Primoz Brezec and a 7-footer who can allow Emeka Okafor to move to the four.
9. Chicago Bulls — Jeff Green, SF/PF, Georgetown. Too good to pass up for the Bulls. Green can step in and give the Bulls interior and mid-range scoring, passing from the frontcourt, another advantageous size/speed matchup for Scott Skiles to toy with, and Green is a winner who’s going to a winning team already.
10. Sacramento Kings — Yi Jianlian, SF/PF, Guangdong South Tigers (China). A guy projected to go as high as No. 3 falling all the way to the Kings at 10? They have to bite. Especially if there’s any truth to these Ron Artest trade rumors, the Kings could need some added depth in the front court.
11. Atlanta Hawks — Acie Law, PG, Texas A&M. They still make out fine with Law or Conley, so they don’t leave MSG looking too bad.
12. Philadelphia 76ers — Julian Wright, SF, Kansas. The Sixers need size and a point guard. Wright, while versatile, doesn’t necessarily give them either one of those things, but he would be the best player on the board at this point and not the worst pick Billy King’s ever made.
13. New Orleans Hornets — Nick Young, SG, USC. Chris Paul needs some wings who can light up the scoreboard, and one thing Young does well is get buckets.
14. Los Angeles Clippers — Javaris Crittenton, PG, Georgia Tech. This will come down to Crittenton (the best PG on the board) and Florida State’s Al Thornton (the best player on the board). The Clips know they’re hurting at the point; we’ll assume they make the right call. Then again, don’t be surprised if five years from now we’re looking at Crittenton like the next Reece Gaines.
June 14th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
JohnnyB says:
First!
June 14th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Veezie says:
I hope Charlotte dont get Spencer Hawes..I am against drafting white post players in round 1!! They all SUCK or get hurt! Id rather have Yi Jianlian instead PLEASE!!! Just like when Charlotte (then the hornets) freakin drafted Kirk Haston from Indiana over a Tony Parker in 2001.
June 14th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Lucky Lester says:
Please tell me you guys don’t think Brandan Wright is a bad player. He’s easily a top 10 pick, yet this site keeps booting him around like he’s garbage. He’s got a super soft touch around the basket, and runs pretty well for a big guy. And Specer Hawes, as white as he is tall, is a very talented big player with post moves and a nice jumper from anywhere on the floor…
June 14th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Noah says:
Watch out for Corey Brewer, he might be the best player in this draft. He’s got size at 6′9, a jumper and the athleticism to contribute right away, like Brandon Roy. Mike Conley is a nice pick for anyone who takes him, but he’s still 2-3 years away from being NBA ready, is he better than Marcus Williams?? I don’t see Jokaim as anything more than a career backup and whoever gets Hawes and Julian Wright have some great investments for the future, but they are not ready right now.
I see this draft having more impact in 5 years than right away, a lot of these guys are extremely talented, but are not physically ready to bang in the NBA. Watch out for the Hawks to grab a Big with the #3 pick, then trade up for Conley. If they do that, watch out, the Hawks are comin, remember Steve Smith, Wilkins and Mookie? They used to be nice.
Also watch out for Michael Jordan to somehow make a bonehead pick with #8 in one of the deepest drafts in years. Anybody remember Kwame? good job Mike. I would like to see the Bobcats grab Jeff Green, he’s smart and could be an Eddie Jones like player, exactly what they need.
June 14th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Arjun says:
I don’t see Wright dropping that far down the board, some considered him a consensus #3 during the season, and while he could use some bulk, the kid shot over 60%, and if there’s one thing we know for sure it’s that you can’t teach size. This kid’s wingspan is unreal, and based on that alone he’ll be able to contribute with blocks and rebounds while picking up the nuances in the NBA game.
I understand the Conley projection is based on his stock right now, but at 6 he would certainly be a waste. I don’t see the kid running Milwakee any better than any of the number of decent FA PG’s available. If you’re nowhere close to winning now, draft the best player, and fill the needs through Free Agency.
On the whole though, this mock is pretty legit, with players matching the corresponding needs of the teams they’re matched with.
Oh, and by the way Veezie, white boys usually fail because they lack the athleticism, but Hawes is pretty legit. Don’t generalize based on race, look at the quality of the athelete. Remember Brent Barry, and in case you forgot, from this year’s finals alone Ginobili used to have serious ups, and pavlovic can seriously hang. And maybe the name Pau Gasol rings a bell? Now this could just be me, but I do believe he didn’t have too bad of a rookie year.
June 14th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
Kyle says:
I agree with you Noah. I think Corey Brewer can be a future all-star. He can be like a Josh Howard in the league.
June 14th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
Veezie says:
Im not being racist about it, i am calling it as it is. Ive heard all about the white post player being athletic in the pre draft camps..blah blah blah (Kirk Haston, Todd Fuller, Joel Pryzbilla, Curtis Borchardt, Ryan Humphrey, Rick Rickart ect) Id rather have a white guard anyday than a white post player. Id even take a european or asian post player. Point is..for a lottery draft pick which millions will be spent, I cannot see myself drafting a white post player. I dont think Spencer Hawes will prove me wrong.
June 14th, 2007 at 9:55 pm
Arneezy says:
Im not being racist about it, i am callin it as it is. Ryan Humphrey is black.
June 14th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
Arjun says:
Veezie, I’m not saying you’re racist, because on the whole white players are less athletic than African American ones. Even if you are, I don’t give a damn because I’m not white. I’m just saying judge each player based on his own ability. Hawes has a good offensive game, is long, and can block shots. He probably isn’t going to be picked that early in my opinion anyway, because mad teams might make a move for Yi (he’s a marketing dream). I’m just saying he isn’t the same as those players you just named because they were taken later for the most part, and each of them had a greatly different game than Hawes. I’m just saying don’t judge a book by its cover because the kid can play. I’d even consider taking Josh McRoberts any pick after 18 or so because the kid can do some things. Posts in general have a very low success rating, whatever race they may be. I can name a long list starting with #1’s like Kwame and the Kandi Man, you really have to watch a guy play to know what he’s truly capable of.
June 15th, 2007 at 2:04 am
carrboro says:
more importantly Arju the fine people of Serbia and Montenegro,Argentina and spain. Most likely do not like to be referred to as “white people” but thats just me
June 15th, 2007 at 4:08 am
Arjun says:
My bad, corrboro, no offense intended, I truly respect the european and south american ballers, and the fundamentals the bring whenever they bring their game to the NBA. One of my best friends played for the Under 15 team for Tau Ceramica, the same club Pau Gasol played for, as well as current prospect Marc Gasol (Who my buddy played with). I just was trying to dispute sterotypes that black posts were the only ones worth drafting. I didn’t mean to disrespect nor stereotype anybody.
June 15th, 2007 at 8:16 am
Veezie says:
Arjun I agree with you, you made a valid point. and Arneezy my bad I meant to say Kris Humphrey the dude from Minnesota who got picked by Utah i believe. Im Puerto Rican by the way. Yeah thinking back post players dont normally pan out. does anyone here think Al Horford = Sean May 2005?
June 15th, 2007 at 9:18 am
heavy d says:
No on the Horford=May thing. Horford’s never been flagged as a conditioning concern and is a bit taller than May, I believe. Still don’t like him at 3. I go with the obvious need of Conley because speed kills and Hawks need penetration to get all those forwards some better looks.
June 15th, 2007 at 11:20 am
bron42 says:
Hate to say it but Spencer hawes is a stuff..hes barely average athlete (which is why greg oden was punchin his stuff at the mcdonalds all america) and wasn’t even the best player on washington this year.
Also Arjun, dunking and having serious ups are 2 different things. Manu= can, josh smith=has serious ups. Brent barry=can dunk, vince carter=has serious ups, Pavlovic= can dunk, steve francis=serious ups…theres about a 10-12 inch vert difference.
Brandon wright is dropping because while hes athletic and runs for a big man..hes soft, only has a hook shot and dunks, and sleep walks most of the games. Put his body type with noah’s mentalitty and he’d be nice..BUT hes not.
June 15th, 2007 at 11:50 am
me says:
my thing with Wright is that I just don’t ever see him being a star and he doesn’t play hard enough to make me be excited about having him as a completmentary player that will do whatever it takes to win. a lil more skilled stromile swift but weaker? i’d take any of the FL guys over him since they all will make a team better more likely to win even if as role players.
June 15th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Dan says:
“Also Arjun, dunking and having serious ups are 2 different things. Manu= can, josh smith=has serious ups. Brent barry=can dunk, vince carter=has serious ups, Pavlovic= can dunk, steve francis=serious ups…theres about a 10-12 inch vert difference.”
Whoa, whoa, whoa! Brent Barry won the dunk contest with a free throw line dunk. I think it’s safe to say that, in his prime, he had “serious ups.”
Also I remember Manu posterizing a hell of a lot of unsuspecting defenders in his first few seasons with some pretty sick dunks.
June 15th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
bron42 says:
key word “unsuspecting”…dunking on someone who is sleeping or lookin the other way doesnt make u a hot dunker. I could 360 on shaq if he wasn’t even looking in my direction. So that pretty much cancels out all of manu’s dunks and pavs…Brent barry won via white points. He shouldnt even have beaten darvin ham, not to mention he was against mike finley, ray allen and darrel “did he just lay it up” armstrong. Lastly, you don’t have to have a 40+ inch vert to dunk from the foul like..its more momentum than anything. You still need ups but not crazy, which is why high school players can do it easy now. When any of the guys you name, challenge a shot blocker (and i dont mean a 7′0 takin a charge like lebron) and just bang on him like vince did Zo, then you can say he has ups..but until then its nothing special to get someone sleeping. Cuz if thats teh case tons of guys would be nice…
June 15th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
me says:
and as for Spencer Hawes. I’ll admit I only saw a little bit of him this year, but when you look at the numbers he put up you’d think he doesn’t have that much athleticsm. for a 7 footer who plays as many minutes as he did to average 6.4 rebounds and less than 1.5 blocks a game that says something. says he ain’t that athletic and that he probably ain’t hustlin that hard to get the most out of himself. i hope the Bulls take him though since I don’t like the Bulls. I saw he was compared to Brad Miller on one site, but Miller didn’t average no 6.4 rebounds a game in college.
June 15th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Zack says:
I think someone will get a steal with Aaron Brooks from Oregon. I think he can be like Gilbert Arenas, who was a second round pick
June 15th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Veezie says:
Yeah Atlanta needs to get Conley Jr. at #3 even though that wont make up for passing on Chris Paul back in 05 but they cannot afford to mess up again