H.O.F. Watch – “Too Early”
Chris Paul on Dime #36Throughout our Hall of Fame Watch series, a few candidates we’ve put up for debate have been deemed “too early” by our readers — most notably LeBron, D-Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo. But the reason we ran with those guys is the Gale Sayers argument. If you don’t know, Sayers was a phenomenal running back for the Chicago Bears whose NFL career was derailed by knee injuries after just five good years — those who saw him play or have just seen highlight clips know he was like a cross between Barry Sanders and Eric Dickerson, a player who was truly before his time. Despite his five-year run, Sayers was still inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame (which does not, like basketball’s H.O.F., consider college or any other accomplishments). So when choosing Dime’s H.O.F. Watch candidates, we put out cut-off point at five years: anyone who’s at least in their fifth season currently was eligible, opening the door for those aforementioned Class of ‘03 Draft superstars.
As for anyone who entered the NBA after 2003, those are the ones we determined it was too early for. But in the spirit of debate, here are some guys we could have profiled from the “too young” group, who could become Hall of Fame-worthy in the coming years:
Andrea Bargnani (2nd year; 11.6 ppg) — Expected to become the next Dirk Nowitzki, a 7-foot scoring machine who can shoot from deep. And if Dirk is in the H.O.F. discussion, Bargnani very well could be in due time. The big difference is that, unless something changes with Chris Bosh’s situation, Bargnani won’t be the focal point of the Raptors like Dirk is with the Mavs.
Andrew Bynum (3rd year; 6.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg) — Drafted to be the next Shaq, or at least something close to it, Bynum is just starting to tap into his potential this year. The Lakers appear committed to keeping him around to be their building block whenever the post-Kobe era commences.
Luol Deng (4th year; 15.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg) — In the ‘07 playoffs, Deng showed that he has the potential to be a true star in the NBA. He’ll be a candidate if he sustains that same level of play over a long period of time, plus he does have the benefit of playing for one of the League’s marquee franchises.
Kevin Durant (1st year; 19.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg) — As one NBA scout told us in Duran’s Dime #32 cover story: “Durant was put on the earth to score a zillion points,” right after comparing KD to James Worthy and T-Mac. No matter his team’s situation: winning or losing, in Seattle or Oklahoma City, Durant is going to get buckets for a long time.
Rudy Gay (2nd year; 12.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg) — The talent is unquestioned. The heart, desire and will to win have been questioned since Rudy was in high school. He has been very good this year, so it’s not too early to cancel out those Pippen/Tayshaun/Reggie Lewis comparisons.
Ben Gordon (4th year; 17.8 ppg) — A reputed clutch shooter with an NBA Sixth Man of the Year award on his mantle and an NCAA championship. So far he’s been notoriously inconsistent, but the potential for putting up major stats is there.
Dwight Howard (4th year; 15.7 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 1.7 bpg) — The current front-runner to be the League’s ‘08 MVP, Dwight is on pace for the first 20-15 season since Moses Malone in ‘83. There’s no reason Dwight can’t be the NBA’s best center for the next decade-plus, and his current Orlando team is built to contend for a championship.
Andre Iguodala (4th year; 13.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.8 spg) — A stat-stuffer and a highlight-maker who is being presented with an opportunity to be the face of the Philadelphia 76ers.
Al Jefferson (4th year; 11 ppg, 7.2 rpg) — In his second season as a starter, Jefferson is The Man in Minnesota for this first stage of the post-Garnett era. There’s a reason he was long considered untouchable to the Celtics’ front office.
Kevin Martin (4th year; 13.7 ppg) — The Kings have decided to build their franchise around Martin. He’s dropping buckets and his career averages will climb as he contends for scoring crowns in the future, but will he ever have enough talent around him to win in the postseason?
Greg Oden (TBD) — He has been hailed as the NBA’s next great center since he was collecting national Player of the Year trophies in high school. Although undeniably talented, Oden has always had some nagging injury to deal with, and his recent microfracture knee surgery is definitely a big red flag for his future success. And compared to the other great centers he’s been linked to, Oden had very little college experience.
Emeka Okafor (4th year; 14.4 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 bpg) — He’s got an NBA Rookie of the Year, an NCAA championship and a Final Four MVP on his resume already. Okafor has shown potential to be a game-changer similar to Alonzo Mourning or Ben Wallace, but he’s also been injury-prone.
Chris Paul (3rd year; 16.9 ppg, 8.5 apg, 2.2 spg) — Halfway through his rookie year everyone wanted to crown CP as the next great NBA point guard. He hasn’t disappointed, either, taking Rookie of the Year in ‘06, making the Team USA roster and already locking down a spot right behind Steve Nash and Jason Kidd as one of the League’s best at his position.
Brandon Roy (2nd year; 16.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg) — Last year’s Rookie of the Year is the foundation of the Trail Blazers (pending Oden’s arrival). A lot of his future team success will ride on how Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge pan out, but individually, Roy can put up the requisite numbers. However, knee and foot injuries that have bothered him since college are a concern.
Josh Smith (4th year; 12.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.5 bpg) — Building a Shawn Marion-like body of work, only without the winning or impossible-to-ignore numbers. The highlights are there for J-Smoove, but he’ll need more consistent production and some kind of team success.
Deron Williams (3rd year; 14.1 ppg, 7.1 apg) — He’s already a Top-5 point guard in the League, and once Kidd and Nash retire, should assume the mantle as one of the Top-3. Deron seems destined to lead the NBA in assists some day, perhaps multiple times.
Yi Jianlian (1st year; 9.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) — Like Yao Ming, Yi could be bolstered by several All-Star selections and international-icon status. Unlike Yao, Yi doesn’t have the benefit of being a larger-than-life (literally) figure and playing at the NBA’s weakest position. It will be harder for Yi to stand out amongst the League’s superstar forwards, but he does excel in areas where Yao struggles, namely athleticism and aesthetically-pleasing fluidity.
The H.O.F. Watch archive
12/3 – Bruce Bowen
11/30 – Dikembe Mutombo
11/29 – Ron Artest
11/28 – Pau Gasol
11/27 – Kevin Garnett
11/26 – Manu Ginobili
11/21 – Amare Stoudemire
11/20 – Rip Hamilton
11/19 – Baron Davis
11/16 – Shaquille O’Neal
11/15 – Steve Francis
11/14 – Ben Wallace
11/13 – Sam Cassell
11/12 – LeBron James
11/9 – Tim Duncan
11/8 – Steve Nash
11/7 – Yao Ming
11/6 – Gilbert Arenas
11/5 – Robert Horry
11/2 – Kobe Bryant
11/1 – Grant Hill
10/31 – Dirk Nowitzki
10/30 – Tony Parker
10/29 – Elton Brand
10/26 – Carmelo Anthony
10/25 – Vince Carter
10/24 – Penny Hardaway
10/23 – Alonzo Mourning
10/22 – Allen Iverson
10/19 – Dwyane Wade
10/18 – Chauncey Billups
10/17 – Stephon Marbury
10/16 – Jason Kidd
10/15 – Shawn Marion
10/12 – Ray Allen
10/11 – Chris Bosh
10/10 – Chris Webber
10/9 – Paul Pierce
10/5 – Jermaine O’Neal
10/4 – Gary Payton
10/3 – Tracy McGrady
December 5th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
Myrie in NY says:
This list is weak and so is the Gale Sayers argument.
The real truth is, there just aren’t enough potential HOF candidates currently in the league. Dime is well aware, hence the reason for the 2004 and after candidates. There are over 300 players in the NBA and the ‘STAR’ talent level may be as good as any era, but it still lacks HOF quality players.
Of the 325 (or so) ballers, less than 15 are going to the Hall. That’s less than 5% (although, none of it is fact…just Myrie’s opinion).
The HOF watch is probably one of the best things on this site. It is the drawing point that keeps most of us tuned into the site throughout the day. It’s great because there is no wrong answer for any candidate (there is a right answer, but never a wrong one).
But you can tell Dime is running out of names. Is this list a last grasp? Can the HOF watch daily feature continue?
December 5th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
fiyaman says:
Myrie in any league at any yr only 10% (more or less) of the players are really HOF quality so saying that they’re arent that many in the L might be correct but so what its always been like that. The majority of the players are just average there are only a few thet really standout. Thats what make the HOF talk so easy to select. You dont hear any mention on McDysee, Mobley, G. Wallace, Mike Finely, Odom, Kurt Thomas, J. Terry,( I can go on forever. ). These are all very good players but in the L they are just average or maybe slightly above but not HOF material.
I would say, of the 30 teams there is really only 1HOF player per team (there are exceptions i.e. Boston, Heat, Spurs) but generally u dont find more than 2 HOF players on a team at a time. If each team had 2 HOF playes that would still only be 60 out of the 300+. I like this thing DIme thought (even though some suggestions suck) but dont hate on them for coming up with it. IN THIS CASE YOU WANT TO HATE THE PLAYER NOT THE GAME. the game is cool the palyers need to be bettr
December 5th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
Myrie in NY says:
Flyman–
Good points. But doesn’t that make it sad? Where is all the HOF level talent or careers?
I guess it just goes to show how difficult it is to be a pro athlete and produce continually.
December 5th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
Junio says:
using the gale argument, grant and penny woulda be in….
December 5th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
fiyaman says:
yeah .. they need to sign me to a contract.. i’d play for less and 100K
December 5th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
dagwaller says:
But so would Bo…and he’s not.
December 5th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
smity says:
I hope that this doesnt signal the end of the series. if so i understand, for yo can’t go on forever, however i think that any further names mentioned would be just as debated as the names mentioned so far (and thats cause people just love to debate). If there won’t be any more HOF watch—i don’t know. i expected to see a rasheed feature. theres still a lot to talk about though (for example there are a bunch of players who are not in the hall that by all standards should be right?) But i agree with Myrie. This HOF watch series definately had me (at work) checking back to see if the newest candidate had been mentioned (except for on “take it easy fridays” when there was no rush to see the newest obvious pick- but it was still great)
December 5th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
smity says:
Also Dime- How Could you all leave Drew Gooden’s beard off of the “Too Early” HOF Watch???!!! I am outraged.
December 5th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
gdon says:
drew gooden? what a twisted joke. The only thing he’s good for was that messed up patch of hair on his neck.
December 6th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Dave says:
Put me down as someone who isn’t really down with this “too early” HOF list.
If indeed the editors are running out of ideas, I would love to see a historical look back at some players not in the Hall who perhaps should have been. Bernard King and Adrian Dantley head that list, but there were a good number of players in the past whose Hall credentials are definitely worthy of debate.
December 11th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
Rashard Roy says:
Of all these cats you mentioned
few will breakthrough
and few will fall
My list of guaranteed HOF?
D12, CP3, Deron (maybe), AI, and Kevin