The Danger of March Madness
J-Ho’s poor Tourney run cost him draft spots (Photo. Isom)This morning our friends over at DraftExpress are re-running a great article they posted this time last year about how the NCAA Tournament can basically screw your favorite NBA squad:
Patrick O’Bryant in 2006, Julius Hodge in 2005, Kirk Snyder in 2004…every year (except 2007?) there is at least one player who uses the NCAA tournament as a spring board to get drafted much higher than they otherwise would have. Trajan Langdon, Ed O’Bannon, Mateen Cleaves, Bo Kimble, Yinka Dare, Bryce Drew, Jared Jeffries, Tate George, Keith Smart…we could go on and on and on for days.
Sometimes, it works out well. Dwyane Wade had a rare NCAA tournament triple double against Kentucky on his way to leading Marquette to the Final Four. That helped him get drafted 5th overall in an extremely strong draft, and he’s now arguably the best player in the entire league.
Sometimes, it doesn’t. Josh Howard scored only 12 points in the first round of the 2003 NCAA tournament as #2 seed Wake Forest squeaked past #15 seed East Tennessee State. Forget winning the ACC for the first time in his school’s history, being named NCAA player of the year by four separate media outlets or being considered a consensus first team All-American, it was the last game of his college career, a miserable 14 point, 1 assist, 7 turnover performance losing to 10th seeded Auburn that sealed his fate and almost saw him fall out of the first round altogether. Howard is now laughing all the way to the bank.
It’s really just human nature. People best recall, and therefore put the most weight on, what they saw last. In the case of certain NBA General Managers, who often don’t hit the scouting trail themselves until after the NBA trade deadline has passed, a magnificent or terrible NCAA tournament performance can be their first introduction to a player their scouts have spent years evaluating—thus deeming their staff’s scouting reports essentially useless. “It can be really frustrating,” one longtime NBA Director of Scouting –who preferred to be quoted off the record—lamented. “You watch a player 10 or 12 times in person over their career…the good, the bad and the average, trying to get a true sense of what a player is really like, and then that all gets thrown out the window because of one game. Then go try to tell your boss that what they saw with their own eyes on the biggest and most electric stage in the world for amateur players, in front of thousands of screaming fans, wasn’t real. You have to fight with the media hype, the draft sites, the fans, everyone. And at the end of the day, your voice gets drowned out.”Some NBA executives—a small minority albeit– for that reason specifically decide to skip attending the tournament altogether. “I’ll watch it on TV, not because I don’t want to be there, but to protect myself, from myself essentially,” says a highly respected NBA Assistant General Manager. “In that atmosphere, it’s almost impossible not to get caught up in the experience and become a fan of certain players. That’s going to cloud your judgment…especially if you’re watching a player for the first or second time.”
Check out the full article HERE.
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March 4th, 2008 at 9:55 am
duece says:
true
March 4th, 2008 at 10:24 am
doc says:
Whoever wants to argue Wade as the best player is a asshole.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:24 am
mrcanadian says:
Great article. I always thought scotty thurman would have made a good pro. Couldn’t figure that one out.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Prof. TX says:
It’s hard enough to tell if a good college player will turn out to be good in the NBA or not, you certainly can’t tell from a couple of tournament games.
Adam Morrison, JJ Redick, etc. The college game is too much about those short-distance 3′s and a lack of defense outside of a few shot blockers trying to make a highlight reel. It’s just not the same game.
It’s funny to me every time someone suggests that a good college team could beat a bad nba team, as writers sometimes do. Who are the worst nba teams right now? Miami? Wade and Marion would destroy any college squad.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:41 am
williams says:
The only way Dwyane Wade is ‘arguably’ the best player in the League is if you were arguing with DWades mother.
March 4th, 2008 at 11:53 am
MoxWestCoastRep says:
How about Hakim Warrick? He had a great tourney with the orange, I always thought he was going to be a beast. Same for G-Mac.
The Obannon brothers were awesome actually that whole Bruins team was great in college….Edney, Bailey all those boys. Game just didn’t translate in the L
March 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
GEE... Cold on em! says:
Yea this year I think the tourney will really effect draft status. With some, it won’t either way, like your Beasley, Rose and Love’s of the world. Other though, Hibbert, Mayo and Lofton, people will be watching to see how they bring it.
I hope they make that money, cause it’s bad when you go cold in the tourney!
March 4th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
myrie says:
This is the exact reason tems have scouts. So you can see a players full body of work; for the season or for their career. You can’t put much into the tournament games.
Some good teams/players are on the bubble and don’t even get in the tourney.
…and by the way, there aren’t many ballers on this earth better than Dwyane Wade.
March 4th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
dagwaller says:
Hahaha, doc and williams, that’s the first thing I was going to say.
The problem with this kind of thinking is the same thing wrong with passing up international prospects, 7 foot projects, and prep-to-pros guys back in the day. If a GM passes up the hot hand in the tourney, people will be saying, “OMFG HOW DID YOU NOT SEE THAT?! How could you NOT draft him after the game he had against the 5 seed?!” Hindsight is 20/20. The article even said so (about Howard).
I think that, barring about a 5 year period (from MJ’s last title to the ’03 draft class) there was a low cycle for the league, during which there either wasn’t the right kind of talent, or people weren’t putting the talent together the right way, or the talent wasn’t being coached the right way. Other than that period, the GMs have historically done a great job getting the best talent into the League – hard to bust on them. Yea, there have been busts, but how many players have taken too long to get in, that should’ve gotten in sooner? Arvydas Sabonis? It’s not like he didn’t get drafted years before he came over…
March 4th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Damon says:
wade the best player in the league? maybe top 5, but no way is he better than lebron and especially kobe.
no way…
March 4th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
hotdog says:
true damon, wade is definitely top 5. he’s playing injured by the way and hes just finishing this season and avoid injuries. that means jump shots galore from him. it can benfit him coz hes working on his jumpshots in games.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
word says:
good points in this article.
March 5th, 2008 at 2:54 am
JoV says:
The article was written last year,during that time,Dwade can be considered the best player in the league.
March 5th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
dagwaller says:
Guys that could be in Top 5 way before Wade:
Lebron
Kobe
TD
Garnett
Dwight Howard
CP3
Manu Ginobili
Wade ain’t shit this season