Highs and Lows: Portland Trail Blazers
Brandon Roy, Dime #24NBA training camps start up in a couple weeks. In the meantime, we’re going team-by-team, from 1 to 30, exploring what each team’s ceiling is for the upcoming season and where their basement is. In other words, what are the realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for each squad?
Additions: SG Rudy Fernandez, PG Jerryd Bayless, SF Nicolas Batum, PF Ike Diogu.
Losses: PG Jarrett Jack, SF James Jones.
Ceiling: Playoffs
Portland’s biggest “addition” is Greg Oden, who missed what would have been his rookie season while recovering from microfracture knee surgery. If Oden is all the way healthy and lives up to just half of the hype he’s getting, at the very least the Blazers have a rebounding and shot-blocking 7-foot force in the middle who makes everyone else’s job easier defensively. Brandon Roy is a superstar; he had a stretch last year where he was getting mild MVP consideration, and will keep getting better as he continues to work on his jumper and adds another layer of maturity and wisdom. Jerryd Bayless looked very Wade-ish in Portland’s summer league, and Rudy Fernandez was equally Ginobili-ish in the Olympics; those two could be the most explosive pair of rookies on any team in the NBA. Coach Nate McMillan is good enough to come up with schemes to win a few more games than Portland’s talent alone allows; just watch the Blazers/Jazz games from last year if you don’t believe that. McMillan will have this team ready defensively, they have a nice blend of slashers, playmakers, shooters and post guys on offense, and everyone involved truly believes they can hang with the Western Conference’s big dogs. As good as the Blazers might be on paper, though, young teams have to take their postseason lumps once they arrive at the dance. If Portland makes the playoff field — and they should — I wouldn’t expect them to get past the first round. At least not this year.
Basement: Barely missing the playoffs
Expectations and excitement are sky-high in Portland, but let’s get a quick reality check: First and foremost, the Blazers’ entire roster has a combined 52 games of postseason experience — and the majority of that comes from Raef LaFrentz (35 games), who might not even play this season due to shoulder surgery. The rest is divvied up in small, insignificant increments between Joel Przybilla, Luke Jackson (who might not make the opening day roster) and Steve Blake. Second, there are legit injury concerns. Roy had knee surgery this summer, Channing Frye is already sidelined with an ankle, Oden is coming off microfracture, LaFrentz has a torn labrum, and LaMarcus Aldridge just looks fragile. And third, this is a young squad with a lot of new faces; will they develop a positive chemistry? How fragile will that chemistry be considering the big expectations being placed on their shoulders? None of these guys have played with Oden. The backcourt trio of Roy/Bayless/Fernandez have never played together before. Martell Webster is basically in a contract year. And Travis Outlaw made some offseason comments that hint at him wanting more shots, which will be at a premium with Bayless and Fernandez around. The Blazers are gonna be good — they might even be my favorite team in the League — but don’t be so surprised if they fall just short of how good everyone thinks they’re going to be.
‘08-09 NBA preview archives
9/18 — New Jersey Nets
9/17 — Minnesota Timberwolves
9/16 — Cleveland Cavaliers
9/15 — Phoenix Suns
9/12 — Milwaukee Bucks
9/11 — L.A. Clippers
9/10 — Orlando Magic
September 19th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
vinny says:
As long as this team stays relatively healthy they will be in the playffs-and fun to watch. Damm is Lafrentz hurt again??
September 19th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
dagwaller says:
Cmon, Austin - I expected a little more in the “balls” department from you. I figured the ceiling would be something like Western Conference Finals, and the basement would be something like a step back from last year (if everyone gets hurt or Outlaw goes crazy or D-Miles comes back and goes postal).
September 19th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Austin Burton says:
I was gonna say “second round” as the ceiling, but I don’t see a Western Conference playoff team who Portland could beat in the first round. MAYBE the Jazz ’cause they seem to have their number, but that’s it. The playoff experience factor is huge.
September 19th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
dagwaller says:
Ha, there it is.
September 19th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Quest??? says:
what happened to james jones??
September 19th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
me says:
whyisn’t greg oden in the additions? I know he signed a contract before last season, but if this is officially considered his rookie season, he should be considered an addition. Kinda in the same vein of drafting a foreigner who doesn’t come over for a few years.
September 19th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Sam I Am says:
lol GO WOLVES
September 19th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Phil says:
this sounds like a major homer statement, but i honestly believe the blazers could take the lakers in the playoffs. i’m not saying they’re gonna win more games during the regular season, i just think they match up real well with the lakers. LA can’t win in the rose garden. literally. that just means winning one in LA. they split the series last year and the two games Pdx lost were without B.Roy. i feel like a pdx/la series has the potential for a warriors/mavs type upset.
September 19th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Joe says:
@ Quest - James Jones is in Miami
@AB - the playoff experience is important MOST of the time, but NO went a couple rounds last year with how much playoff experience? Peja and????
By the way, the only championship the Blazers ever won was with a very young and inexperienced team.
One last thing, Aldridge just looks fragile? What the hell? Looks can be decieving my friend
September 19th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Blazermark says:
I dont see a team in the West that we cant smash. We crushed teams in the West last year, with out Oden, Bayless, and Rudy. Heck, sometimes without LA or Brandon. We blew the Lakers out in Ptown, barely lost in LA. We owned G-state and destroyed Utah. Ask Denver how they liked getting their @$$ kicked last year. I cant wait to see what happens this year, but remember our 77 championship team? They were young too!
September 19th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
steven says:
This year definitely has the makings of “77 championship!”
September 19th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Jah says:
They look great on paper. I think they’ll make the playoffs and will only grow together as a better team as time goes on.
September 19th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Homeless J says:
I’d have to agree that the only team in the West they could take in a playoff series is the Jazz (although I think they’d have a good chance of taking out Houston as well. Roy and T-Mac seem like they’re a lock to miss 20-25 games this season due to minor injuries and Yao and Oden have proven that either of them could fall at any minute to freak leg injuries).
I think they would handle the Jazz particularly well, but they’re in the same division, so they’d have to meet in the second round. The Blazers were one of four teams to beat them at home last year in the regular season, and Boozer and AK-47 have been choking in the playoffs lately. I don’t really think it’s likely that they’d get that matchup though, this year it would be more likely to get an 8-vs-1 or at best, 7-vs-2 seed. The Lakers and Spurs have more experience in the playoffs, and the Hornets are near unbeatable as long as they have CP3 and enough pogo stick legged dudes and open 3-point shooters to catch all of his passes.
It would be great just to see them get into the playoffs again, even if they get swept.
September 19th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Three Stacks says:
Portland is no doubt an up and coming team, but counting on them to make noise in the playoffs is kinda wishful, at least this season. Like the Hornets last year, who should have beaten SA in the 2nd round, but inexperience is a big thing in the playoffs. In a couple years, they’ll be scary.
@ Phil, no doubt the Blazers always play LA tight, but coming to LA and winning a playoff game isn’t gonna be that easy. We only lost one game at home in the playoffs last yr (the game 4 collapse in the Finals).
Stop hating on LA, people! We made the Finals last yr with a roster that played together about half a season, and we’re adding another pretty good player. Meanwhile, the biggest moves in the West so far have been Artest to Houston and Posey to NO. I don’t care what people say, I like our chances. We’re getting a chip this year.
September 20th, 2008 at 3:44 am
dagwaller says:
3, I hate to like your prediction, but I think that going into the season, LA is the favorite to come out of the West. That is, unless, Chris Wallace trades Rudy Gay to Phoenix for a pick and Lopez…
September 20th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Big Ael says:
This guy has posted his personal ad to the tall dating site called___tallloving.com____for several months. I just visited his profile page yesterday. It seems he has logged in recently. OMG, is he looking for a new relationship?