Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Oct 23, 2008 / 11:45 am

“Experts” Fantasy Basketball Draft Recap

Deron WilliamsDeron Williams (photo. Christian Kozowyck)

Every year we are invited to play in a an “experts” fantasy basketball league. A bunch of fantasy hoop geeks from sports media outlets draft a team and then write up a little something explaining why they made each move and everyone posts it on their respective site. ESPN, cbssportsline, Slam, Dime etc. Our draft was last night, and here’s how it played out:

There are 14 teams in the league. Here’s my one note to all you guys in or organizing fantasy leagues: 14 adds a strategic dimension, but honestly, a basketball league is best with 12 teams. For the second year in a row the Dime squad had the 14th pick. I’m a fan of the back-to-back picks in drafts to an extent, but with 26 players coming off the board in between picks, there are definitely times that you want to stab yourself during the 20 to 30 minutes you have to wait in between selections. I brought in a partner this year, our editorial assistant Aron Phillips (aka Go Get Em). Young Buck, and I apologize about this Aron, but he is clearly a bit of a fantasy rookie and has what I like to call “fantasy-itis.” In other words, he has trouble separating what makes a good fantasy player from a good basketball player. Tough one to cure but I broke him down last night. I said no to Aron more times last night than I was rejected in college. I gave him a couple picks and tried to be a good partner, but I’m also trying to win. The League is head-to-head with the categories (points, boards, assists, blocks, steals, turnovers, three pointers made, fg and ft percentage) each equaling one win.

The back to back and 14-team league really makes you plan ahead and think about things a little differently. With the 14th and 15th picks I was determined to get a point guard and center, knowing that 26 players later the assists and blocks categories would be tough to fill. For my point guard, our selection was actually very easy. We had thought that either Nash or Deron Williams would be available and we were right. Nash was drafted right before our pick and we jumped on Deron. I could care less if he misses the first week of games. If he’s completely healthy right now, Deron goes 4 to 5 picks earlier.

With the center spot, I was torn. Aron really wanted Dwight Howard and I of course was terrified of Howard’s free throw percentage. I was more interested in Bosh, Yao, or even Al Jefferson (Al and Bosh both give you PF and Center eligibility in this multi-position league). I’m a very strong Yao supporter. When healthy, the stats are tremendous. Take last season’s numbers: 20 points, 11 boards, 2 blocks, and absurd percentages. He doesn’t hurt you anywhere and really helps everywhere – when healthy. Bosh’s numbers are also very impressive, but the fact that he is consistently blocking only 1 shot per game ruled him out for me. Remember, 26 players were about to come off the board and that’s a whole lot of blocks. So, I did it. I took Dwight Howard and decided to punt free throw percentage for the rest of the draft. Howard can immediately help me win 4 categories (fg, blocks, boards, and hopefully points) and I’ll take that as a base. D-Will and Howard. Not bad.

And then the dreaded wait. My next two picks would be the 56th and 57th players taken in the draft. We needed best available but we also clearly needed points, threes, steals, and basically guys who help in multiple categories. When it came our turn and Jason Kidd was on the board, I looked at it as an opportunity to win a category. With D-Will and Kidd and a 14-team league, I could literally win assists. I’m not worried about Kidd’s field goal percentage at all. He’s not going to shoot enough to hurt you. He’ll probably end up shooting 40 percent but most of those shots will be threes, and he helps you so much in other categories. With Kidd, I get 100 threes, absurd dimes, boards, and steals. I also creep back into the free throw category. Although I can probably say peace to the turnover category. With the second pick, we took Hedo Turkoglu. Believe me, I didn’t go into the draft expecting to have Turk, but with what was left in the points, threes, and do-everything categories, I was pretty happy. Hedo also qualifies at both guard and forward which offers some nice versatility.

26 more picks gave us plenty of time to evaluate what categories to go at next. Clearly, we had to get some threes, but I also wanted to make sure we’re still filling blocks, as well the points category. As it got closer to our pick, we were deciding between Jermian O’Neal, Greg Oden, and Peja. Or at least grabbing two of those three. I didn’t hate the idea of JO and Oden. Remember, we’re punting free throw percentage anyway. Oden went before our pick so we grabbed JO and Peja. I’m satisfied with those picks. Both are significant health risks, but JO looks good right now. He gives us points, blocks, and boards while qualifying for either center or power forward. With Peja, there are only so many players that hit 200 threes per year and Peja is one of them.

Zach RandolphI love the Z-Bo pick in the later rounds

When we looked at teams after the draft, rounds 7 and 8 marked the end of the talent. And by the way, Tracy McGrady went all the way to the 7th round. The 88th pick to be exact. WOW. Obviously understandable. We had the 98th and 99th. Aron really wanted OJ Mayo or Derrick Rose. I was listening a little bit, but don’t really trust rookies in fantasy (especially in non-keeper leagues). Mayo went before our pick anyway. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I was actually really hoping Zach Randolph slid to us. Yes, I wanted big Zach. At this point, he gave us really nice value (especially because I think he’ll probably eventually qualify as a center as well). We needed sure points and that was hard to find on the board. With 98th pick, he’s a great value selection and we grabbed him. On the other end of our back-to-back, I once again went against everything I stand for in fantasy basketball and selected Shaq. Like I said, we’re booting free percentage anyway (and I don’t think Shaq will shoot as many as he has in the past anyway). I have a hunch about Shaq this season and since we don’t care about free throws, getting boards, points, blocks, and fg percentage this late is a nice win. The 8th was really the round where the ugly began as Jamario Moon made an appearance, Hinrich, Battier, Rafer, Drew Gooden and Joakim Noah. Yuck. Rose actually went immediately after Shaq, which almost made Aron hit me.

I’m actually fired up about our 9th and 10th rounders. While many are essentially taking cuttables (Raja Bell, Ty Thomas, Warrick, Farmar, Millsap, Bayless), we grabbed Rudy Fernandez and Monta Ellis. I love Rudy, and think he’ll play 30 minutes a night and give you real stats day in and day out [Check out the Legend of Rudy Fernandez]. With Monta, if he comes back for the second half of the season it’s a huge win. He was the last of the injured three to go. It does mean that we need to find a starter in our last three picks and there is a whole lot of ugly out there.

It’s bad when I’m desperately hoping that Udonis Haslem or Louis Williams falls to us in the 11th round. They didn’t. With our back-to-back, we grabbed one of Aron’s guys – DeShawn Stevenson (I threw up in my mouth as Aron made the pick … though the kid does hit threes and scores a little) and Andres Nocioni, who if given minutes can really play. With the very last pick in the draft, we took Robin Lopez, though we’re first on the waiver wire so it didn’t really matter who we grabbed. Still, having Shaq’s back up isn’t the worst idea.

So looking at our squad, I like what we did with the back-to-back picks. If we stay healthy, we should win boards, blocks, assists, and field goal percentage most weeks, and have a legit shot at taking points, and threes. Steals and turnovers are crapshoots anyway. We’re trying to win 5 to 6 categories weekly, and I think we’ll have a decent shot at that. Time will tell.

    The Dime Team

PG - Deron Williams
SG - Hedo Turkoglu (G or F)
G - Jason Kidd
SF - Peja Stojakovic
PF - Jermaine O’Neal (PF or C)
F - Zach Randolph
C - Dwight Howard
C - Shaquille O’Neal
Util - Rudy Fernandez
Util - DeShawn Stevenson
BN - Monta Ellis
BN - Andres Nocioni
BN - Robin Lopez (PF or C)

Yesterday the Fantasy Doctor debuted his first fantasy hoops column of the season when he ranked the 101 best fantasy players in the NBA this season. Come back later today for his Top Sleeper Picks for 2008-09.

20 Responses to ““Experts” Fantasy Basketball Draft Recap”

  1. Jkill says:

    Interesting. You looked at a draft much differently than I did. Can I have a redo hahaha? Sh*t! I really want a doover. Your team makes sense.

  2. HomeAlone says:

    Fantasy-itis! Love it.

  3. MT says:

    Nice team. It would be interesting to know what the other squads looked like though. And hopefully for y’all, the injury bug won’t hit. There are some serious concerns for that on your squad.

  4. bliz289 says:

    great breakdown Doc! i’ve got Deron and Peja on my squad too, so i’ll be rooting for you…

  5. bliz289 says:

    good call MT…Can we see the other rosters?

  6. nick says:

    shaq and d12 are gonna kill ur free throw percentage.

  7. Dell says:

    Your team has some nice bigs, but some serious, serious injury concerns. And one thing I’ve learned about injury concerns in bball, is that they will always happen to guys who are concerns. Except for Baron last year, that’s always the case. With that being said, and the lack of 3s and steals, your team could have a long season, and you might have to cut Monta before he gets back. And you went way too high on Kidd. He looked tired last year, and that was before he went to China to play the summer away. Shoud have picked a 3 shooter there, and listened to the Young Buck and tabbed Rose a few rounds later. Just my two cents, but good luck. My draft’s tonight.

  8. fallinup says:

    Shaq’s backup with Shaq is nice. It’s already a fact that he’s gonna miss over a quarter of the games.

    And this is just a hunch, but this will be Hinrich’s comeback year. You shouldn’t have passed on him.

  9. MoxWestCoastRep says:

    Team looks good but very risky!
    JO Oden Shaq and Kidd could all break down but they could all come up big.
    I guess that’s the beauty of fantasy!
    Love the Turk pick

  10. sans says:

    The only way that Hinrich has a comeback year is if he gets traded. Nice Picks, I can’t believe Dwight went that long. My toughest decision was taking Amare over Dwight and Kobe. Amare helps too many categories, shoots better from the line, and I shored up the extra forward spots for more blocks and boards, so I feel good. My league wouldn’t let me take Rudy, saying it would invalidate my squad, even though I had no backup g’s and will have to sit GilZero for a while. Good luck, let us know how you do Doc…and your top100 helped a lot.

  11. Meica says:

    Although I think Rose is going to put up some impressive numbers and we’re all going to look back and consider him a steal in this fantasy draft, I think you guys made the right decision taking Zach Randolph and Shaq; when you already have D-Will and J-Kidd what on earth would you need another PG for? Honestly, you had some other needs to fill—you don’t want a backcourt like Chicago does.

    Speaking of Chicago, I think the Nocioni and Ellis picks are going to be huge for you guys. Well, good luck!

  12. Gary says:

    I’d love to play in this league . . . easy money from what i see!

  13. The Fantasy Doctor says:

    Easy money. Awesome.

    To the person who brought up the ft%, I agree, I’m going to lose it every week (or most). As soon as I took Howard I forgot that the category even existed.

    As for injuries… I’d say that’s about 80% true. Here’s the deal with injuries… There are going to be some that you just can’t plan. But there is a very good chance that Shaq and JO get hurt at some point and miss some games and pretty good chance Peja does as well. At the time I picked them, they were risks I decided to take.

  14. David Brandon says:

    ok everyone…or anyone lol

    a coworker got me into this league last minute w/ the normal 8-cat, 9 starters/3 on the bench league. it was an autodraft and i had something like….an hour and a half to set up the team. so let me know what you guys think of my team:

    pg - calderon
    sg - rip
    g - foye
    sf - caron
    pf - amare
    f - timmy
    c - the caveman kaman
    c - david lee
    util - odom
    util - stuckey
    bench - candace’s brother
    bench - ramon sessions
    bench - ricky buckets

    i really want rudy fernandez and eric gordon (available on the wire, but dont really know who to drop of the last three. anthony parker and ricky hit a lot of threes last year and ramon is supposed to start and while unproven for a solid season, was great for assists the last part of the year.
    so what ya think…

  15. The Fantasy Doctor says:

    I’m not a big believer in Foye. You should grab Rudy. Drop Anthony Parker or Sessions.

  16. David Brandon says:

    good lookin out my man!

  17. Three Stacks says:

    @ David Brandon, not bad at all for an autodraft, you’re gonna be lacking in assists a bit though. Foye is hit or miss.

    You’re gonna be solid with percentages, though, with Calderon, Caron, and Amare. How many teams in the League? Pretty much impossible to get both Caron and Amare in a 12 team league. I would take that team this year anyday. Work the wire a bit and you’re golden.

  18. Three Stacks says:

    I play in a 16 team league every year, and it gets pretty crazy, you gotta draft people like Johan Petro in the 10th round and shit. I love the heavy competition, though. If you’re not constantly on your Blackberry, you’re gonna lose on the FA pickups, that’s a fact, lol.

  19. David Brandon says:

    @ three,

    man, theres 10! i dont how i got two top ten guys…but ask me if i’m complaining.

    i know i’m kinda eh w/ randy right now too. i know he came back strong tho…but i did just pick up earl watson for assists. someone just dropped him for salmons. lol i’m thinkin i’ll watch matt barnes a bit if he’s ballin when/if he starts in phoenix and i’ma probably pick up rudy for randy anyway. if rudy does get 30 minutes of tick, perfect.

    i’ve never played in a league that deep before tho. i think the most i got into was….i think it was 12 actually. so the usual.

    and yo, whats up guys?? can we really get this league of ours going!? are we gonna do it on yahoo? man, you know what….. i’ma just set it up and put the info on here and then whoever jumps on, jumps on.

  20. David Brandon says:

    ok guys,

    for whoever’s interested, here’s the info. (what, you guys didnt tihnk i was gonna really do it? sheeeeeeiiiit….lol)

    as of right now, there’s 11 spots left open. and since i couldnt think of anything cool, i just named it The League of Champions, the ID# is 120998 and the Password is dime. easy, right. so whoever wanted to get one going, here we go. i’ll repost this sometime later just in case too.

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