The Hyperactive Rookie Watch
O.J. MayoThere’s one thing that completely baffles me about major media coverage of the NBA. For whatever reason, both ESPN and Sports Illustrated feel like it’s important to rank rookies, and to do so front and center on their sites. O.J. Mayo‘s had a couple good games, and all of a sudden he’s “better” than Derrick Rose. But if you asked every GM in the League right now, do you think that they would have taken O.J. with the No. 1 pick instead of Rose?
If you pick up Malcolm Gladwell‘s new read “Outliers,” you’ll see that the whole notion of making definitive judgments of rookies is completely flawed. In short, Gladwell’s point is that it takes a ton of time – roughly 10,000 hours of practice – for someone to actually get good at something. 10,000 hours translates to about ten years if you spend four hours a day working at your craft. (There are a ton of examples of “outliers” who mastered their field in fewer years, but they’re all basically in that same total hour range.) Everybody in the League today has devoted countless hours to their game, but odds are they haven’t come close to Gladwell’s threshold until they’ve gotten a couple of years under their belt.
Though your instinct is to rattle off MJ‘s rookie campaign, LeBron‘s rookie season, Dwyane Wade‘s third year as exceptions, Gladwell’s “rule” still applies. These three guys – and every other guy who has a Rookie of the Year award for that matter – were “good” in their first year, but they didn’t come anywhere close to being the player that they would eventually become until later in their careers.
So for now I’m protesting the O.J./Rose discussion and instead focusing on some other rookies that deserves some love – even if their play doesn’t constitute being called the “best” in this year’s class.
* Eric Gordon
For the third straight game, EG made more than 60% of his tries from the floor last night, hitting in double figures yet again. His 22 points were his third highest on the year, and with another three triples on the evening, he’s showing that he could be the Clippers’ long-term solution at the two.
* D.J. Augustin
He’s better than Ray Felton right now, and thankfully Larry Brown has gone against his infamous reputation as an unconditional “rookie-sitter.”
* Ryan Anderson
His career-high of 21 points against Toronto Monday night proved that if he came from Europe instead of Cal, Anderson would have been a lottery pick.
* Courtney Lee
He’s been this month’s version of Anthony Morrow, capitalizing on the minutes coming his way. Aside from a 10-minute game against OKC, Lee’s played over 20 in each of Orlando’s last nine games, and he’s shooting 56% over that stretch.
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December 17th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Kobeef says:
Brook Lopez should be added to the list of players that would have been better than klove in ‘sota
December 17th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
weezy f says:
December 17th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
weezy f says:
skip to 215 i am SPEECHLESS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbUR0SRceD0
December 17th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Heckler says:
i dunno if there is much a disparity.
derrick rose was the #1 pick….oj mayo was the #3 pick. not a big difference and both are performing well.
what be missed in the reporting or ranking…is that dj augustin is having a better season than both of them.
December 17th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
KB24 says:
well oj is better than rose in my opinion…If oj played point and had the ball in his hands as much as rose, I’d think he have more assist than he does now. He’s capable of getting almost any shot he wants.
December 17th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Dwayne Schintzus says:
george hill anyone? ian mahinmi anyone?
December 17th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Vinny says:
HOW CAN YOU HAVE RYAN ON THERE AND NOT BROOK? where’s Luc?
Rose is better than Mayo now and will get better. Mayo might be as good as he’ll ever be!
December 17th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Amar says:
I’m not a big fan of Gladwell’s writing/theories. Some of it makes sense, other parts are non-rational reaches which attempt to be valid due to culturally built up assumptions. (like his book “blink” which attempts to link similar cognitive processes in identifying if a tennis serve will be good, or in determining how best to murder Amadou Diallo)
I think the point is that the ROY award is not the award that goes to the guy who is going to have the best career from that draft class (it does work that way sometimes), just the guy who did the best in their first season . . . like, I’d say that Karl Malone had a better carrer than Pat Ewing (finals twice, 2 mvps, etc), but it’s a good thing that Pat got the ROY that season, because he had the best rookie season.
as for the rookies this season it’s easy to go and look at rose and mayo and forget about everyone else. as for rose v mayo, both do something else. rose has impressed me with his ability to drive. mayo, on the other hand, displays much more mature offensive moves.
who is better? at this stage most people would be inclinde to say rose is better . . . but this is, ultimately, a league for swingmen, not lead guards (cp, et al excused), so I expect mayo to have the better career.
December 17th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Bruce says:
Rose is better — Andre Miller and I concur.
December 17th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Bron42 aka Thugnificant says:
KB24, mayo has never been a high assist guy..from high school till now and he had the ball in his hands ALOT in high school and college..hes always just been a gunner.
December 17th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
nerditry says:
I agree with Gladwell, my feeling has always been that it will usually take 5 years for a starting NBA point guard to “mature” and reach the next phase of their abilities developing.
December 17th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
doc says:
Strong ass players in a strong ass class.
December 17th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Dank says:
good post.im tired of the John Hollinger/Marc Stein expert ish. im so tired of it. it turns me off basketball completely. ESPN is full of shit at this point. with crap like crap reporters like Ed Werder. these dudes who are reporting to us got their degrees when most of us werent even born. stop the madness!!!
we need some new blood to cover this league. its a league for the young!
December 17th, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Vinny says:
dANK-MAYBE IT ISNT AN AGE THING???
December 17th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
ur brother says:
its all bout practice
December 17th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
dmitry of jersey says:
anyone else think the Heat are gonna be regretting passing on OJ?
December 17th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Chris says:
Rookie Rankings aren’t about who is better. They are about who is performing better. So, when O.J. Mayo gets bumped above Rose, it isn’t because they think Rose has suddenly gotten worse. Its just Mayo had a run of good games.
And there is no way that A) Mayo has peaked. He’s a rook, no matter how good he’s doing on a bad team and B) he’d have more assists than Rose. Besides, i think he does touch the ball as much as Rose.
And, dmitry, i’m really not sure if you noticed, maybe you haven’t, but you see..the Heat already have a two guard named D. Wade and he has a couple skills. I don’t know. Maybe I’m just crazy.
December 17th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
me says:
i love oj mayo…hes so hot
December 17th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
dmitry of jersey says:
Chris, you’re just SO clever!
the blazers had a 2 guard named Clyde Drexler so they passed on Jordan.. brilliant! detroit had a small forward named Prince so they passed on Carmelo…great!
i’m not saying OJ will be as good as Jordan or even Carmelo, but the point is in the NBA you always take the best player available..don’t matter who’s on your roster. if you don’t you look like a fool.
December 18th, 2008 at 12:40 am
Chris says:
The Blazers passed on Jordan because the theory of the time was “All you need is a big man” and Bowie fit the bill. Not because of positional issues.
Detroit had talent at every postition. Dumars just thought Darko would be a beast. Obviously, he was wrong.
Rose and Beasley were rated #1 and #2 by everyone. Actually, the Heat were almost scared off by “character issues” that Beasley supposedly had. They reportedly tried to trade down several times to draft Mayo or another player but couldn’t find an offer good enough.
Looks like the Heat did take the best player available. Nice try though.
December 18th, 2008 at 2:45 am
Joaquin says:
Dmitry, Sota looks more dumb for trading Mayo for Love. As if they didn’t learn from trading B-Roy and who’s that guard again?
You just can’t go wrong with picks 1-3 in this year’s draft. That’s just how it is.
December 18th, 2008 at 7:56 am
Kjetil says:
So it’s wrong to rank the rookies based on their season performance, but it’s ok to call Anderson a lottery pick based on one game? Hmmm…..
December 18th, 2008 at 8:46 am
shake&bake says:
Good call on Anderson being a lotto pick if he came out of Europe.
December 18th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Flip says:
“if he came from Europe instead of Cal, Anderson would have been a lottery pick”…
now where’s the ratio behind that statement???
December 18th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Dave says:
Drafting is an extremely inexact science, as a quick look through the “busts” from past years demonstrates. It isn’t really about how “good” a player is, but how productive they can be within a given team system. How that unfolds is almost impossible to predict, even for top picks.
That being said, trading OJ for fat Love has to be one of the stupidest things ever done on draft day. Of course, it had to be Lurch who did it. OJ and Rose will battle for primacy in this year’s class for a long time. At this point, it really isn’t clear who will prove to be decisively better.
December 18th, 2008 at 10:11 am
dmitry of jersey says:
@chris: you are crazy if you don’t think the Blazers having drexler wasnt a huge factor in passing on Jordan.
@dave: I agree. it’s too early to tell anyway, but the way things are shaping up the Wolves will likely be kicking themselves for trading OJ. him and jefferson would have been a nice combo.
December 18th, 2008 at 11:24 am
JCARR says:
Rudy Fernandez
December 18th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Jules says:
Pretty hilarious that Beasley isn’t even mentioned.