A Point Guard’s True Value
Rajon RondoPart of the newly refurbished ESPN.com, which now has a super-slick interface that can easily drag you into 20 minutes of watching video after video before you even gain total consciousness, is a new element in the box score. Right next to total points, there’s a little “+/-” category that basically measures how the game went when that specific player was on the floor.
Last night, Ray Allen dropped 36 in a win over the Raptors - and it makes sense that he was “+12″ for the night. In that game, Anthony Parker was pretty bad - his 2-12 FG hurt Toronto to the tune of “-12.”
That makes sense. But we’re not combing through box scores to get some information that is pretty easily gleaned otherwise. We dug a little deeper, looking at the numbers of each winning team last night and noticed that the “+/-” numbers are higher on average for point guards than any other position. Granted not every team runs with a well-defined one through five lineup (Boston started two power forwards last night, Philly started two small forwards, and the Warriors had two shooting guards), but there’s a noticeable surge at the point for each squad.
The seven winning point guards last night - Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Jameer Nelson, Beno Udrih, Jamal Crawford, and Derek Fisher - which isn’t a particularly highly decorated grouping, were an average of “+10.3″ per player. Shooting guards were an average of “+5.1″ per player, small forwards were “+6.7″ per player, power forwards were “+7.4″ per player, and centers were “+6.8″ per player.
If this were 1990, do you think that a truly representative sample would’ve played out the same way? I’d imagine that centers would’ve put up greater “+/-” numbers than PG’s during the ’90’s. But what about the 1980’s? Or the 1970’s?
Let’s say that this one-night sample is indicative of a greater trend that we’ve been talking about in the League for a while, which was at the heart of the Chris Paul vs. Kobe MVP debate last season, and part of the reason that the Bulls chose Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley. Across the board, point guards are the most valuable position in the NBA today.
But how would they stack up with other positions in other era’s? In general, are PG’s as valuable to their teams in the League today as centers were to their squads in the ’90’s? Are the best PG’s in the League - the Chris Paul’s, Deron Williams‘, Tony Parker’s, Steve Nash’s - as valuable to their team as the best centers in their era - the Hakeem’s, Shaq’s, Robinson’s, Ewing’s?
Take Chris Paul’s ‘07-08 campaign - perhaps one of the best seasons ever from a point guard. According to basketball-reference.com, Paul’s “win share,” which is roughly explained as how many wins he helps to create, was 17.3. Shaq’s ‘99-00 season, in which he won the Triple Crown of All-Star Game, Regular Season and NBA Finals MVP, his “win share” was 18.7.
CP3 is on pace to match last season’s numbers by and large, but his win share is far lower thus far this season, which shows that this is definitely no exact science. Ultimately it comes down to what you think.
Are point guards the most valuable position in the League today? And if so, are they more valuable than other positions during other eras?
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January 12th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
AY says:
great players will excel from any position; the rules have changed to the point that the league values speed and quickness over size and strength on average. But if you’re a great player, it doesn’t matter what position you play, your team will win.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:23 pm
chronically_ill says:
No. Anyone who’s ever played or watched ball knows that basketball is a game that requires cooperation and knowledge of positioning. All the greats knew where they had to be and where their teammates were supposed to be, even if they werent listed as “point guards.” Jordan, Pippen, Olajuwon, Shaq, Duncan all knew how to do this, even though they arent point guards.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Coop says:
players that win games: PGs and Cs. There are hardly any good Cs these days but plenty of decent PGs so make sense really.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
kooguy says:
a thought on the plus/minus…
it’s hard fairly measure to say because a playmaking pg will usually have the ball the majority of the time (see: cp3, nash, kidd) and will more likely have a greater +/- swing, on offense at least.
if a pg just feeds a hot player, then +++ but as with caledron, if your shooter is cold, then —
if kev-mart is on fire but beno can’t dish him, then no one gets +++ right?
to answer the question, no. great players will make sure they can get the ball and contribute points, whether making shots themselves or providing open looks for teammates.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
LakeShow84 says:
Hell no..
U need bigs.. The NBA has done everything in its power to make guards the cream of the crop with the perimiter rules but you can still see teams that are guard heavy and are garbage.. The game is played from the inside out.. After MJ the NBA tried to make rules that would allow for heroics from PG’s with the skill set of Eric Snow but you can still see how valuable it is to have big men doing your dirty work..
Even though it isnt directly related i look at it like Small Ball versus Actual NBA Teams.. Small ball is flashy and good for tickets (offense) but having legitimate bigs who HOLD DOWN THE PAINT slows the game down in your favor and wins the game (defense)..
And wasnt Pauls line last year HISTORIC?? Shaq was just a murderous, dominant big man in that Triple Crown Year and he only averaged around 3-4 assts.. But a big man owns the paint and in BBall you want to own the paint.. not neccessarily the perimeter..
Like how Lebron can be some dominant with such a streaky shot.. sorry had to jab somewhere..
January 12th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
George W Kush Sr says:
Lets ask Denver.
Real question is why do big suck so bad compared to past generations?
You could name average-to-decent big men from the 80’s and 90’s and realize that these guys would smash on most of the bigs we have around now.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
AB_40 says:
today yeah probably ever since the new rules that position got a lot easyer on their games and bodies.
And these players are great players don’t get me wrong. But you don’t have to double these players when they DON’T have the ball. Shaq, Robinson, Olajuwon and at times Ewing were.
The big man level of todays nba is so so and if players are so so they don’t get used a lot. And good bigs don’t know how to play together… look at phoenix and the lakers. these players arn’t used to playing with solid big men next to them. It’s a whole new world for em and they don’t know how to feed of one another. The problem on those teams is that they both have former mvp’s who need the ball in their hands to be effective. Man I can write about this all night but it’s 2 am here so time to sleep haha.
January 12th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
dagwaller says:
I think that this stat is a bigger indicator of the league-wide discrepancy between the starter and his backup. I don’t think that it necessarily means that the starters these days are better than they were back then; I just think that it means that the talent pool is a little more shallow, probably because of expansion.
But we already knew that.
January 12th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Ian says:
coop
u said it
its because the league doesnt have the same quality of big men it did in the 90s
and no pgs arent as valuable as big men did back then.
do u think 4 scrubs with parker deron or paul will win as many games as the same scrubs with the admiral hakeem or shaq?
fuck no
but the 2 most important positions still are big men and pgs
January 12th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
blah says:
anyone see eddy curry was hit with a gay sexual harassment lawsuit from his driver?
January 12th, 2009 at 11:25 pm
GEE...Who's drunk off that Hen? says:
I would say at this time yes. Only because that seems to be the part where players are progressing the most.
The West alone is pretty PG heavy as far as great ones.
That is what worries me with Houston.
Look at San An, N.O. Dallas and I would even throw in L.A. cause of Fisher’s experience.
At this time based on progression I most def. say the pg spot is probably the most critical.
A floor general is of the most importance.
January 13th, 2009 at 12:59 am
the Heckler says:
**** BREAKING NEWS ****
EDDY CURRY IN A SEX LAWSUIT…..and there is a crazy ass catch. read link:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01122009/news/regionalnews/knicks_sex_scandal_shock_149861.htm
January 13th, 2009 at 3:27 am
Byrone says:
wtf is up with guys postin this curry sh*t??? BREAKING NEWS? cmon… guess that’s the only way them knicks know how to make noise these days…
January 13th, 2009 at 8:34 am
srb says:
yahoo has had +/- for a long time now in their box scores
January 13th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
Big Shot BOB says:
No I don’t see point guards being as dominant in this era than big men were in the 80’s and 90’s. For one big men draw double teams which suck the defense in and create open looks for everyone else. Especially a guy like Shaq who was so dominate that coaches had to change they’re game plan just deal with him. He changed the game in that since. The reason point guard play is so important in today’s game is because the quote on quote big man is becoming extinct. If you look at the dominate big man coming out of college these days none of them are over 6′10. You had Beasley last year and this year you have what’s the kid from Oklahoma’s name oh yeah Blake Griffin and niether are above 6′8. So the league looked at this trend and catered they’re games rules to feature the perimiter players.
Now point guards are more important in this style of play because they’re the main position you need to be succesful running the ball. When you start that fast break you need someone who is going to make the right decisions on when and who to pass to and when to shoot. And instead of teams defenses being drawn into the paint by a big man it’s guys like CP3 and Tony Parker that can get to the paint off the dribble or pick and roll and kick out to perimiter shooters.
January 13th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
Mo says:
I don’t think you can look at CP’s win shares right now and compare them to what he finished with last seaon. I think you have to wait to see what his win shares end up being at the end of the season. Currently the top 20 win share leaders are all under 10.0. Lebron is leading right now with 9.0 and CP3 is 2nd with 8.0 followed by Dwight Howard at 6.8.