How To End the Rockets’ First-Round Curse
On paper, the Rockets have lost two of their five best players since the start of this season. Conventional wisdom would say that their hope to break out of “first-round playoff purgatory” is now a longer shot than ever before.
But like Daryl Morey’s supremely geeky video-game scouting system, these Rockets don’t fit conventional wisdom. They’re 17-5 since Tracy McGrady limped off the court, and 15-5 since Rafer Alston was sent to Orlando. And now the question remains – will the addition-by-subtraction Rockets be able to see the Western Conference Semi-Finals for the first time since 1997?
It’s tempting to analyze their success pre and post McGrady as the definitive predictor of Houston’s playoff run. They’re 20-15 with him on the court this season and 28-11 without him. When T-Mac played, Houston supposedly was more stagnant on offense. Without him, they supposedly move the ball better. When Tracy had the ball in his hands, his teammates supposedly sat by and watched him go to work. Without him, everyone supposedly works harder off the ball.
Yao’s, Artest’s, Battier’s, and Scola’s numbers all indicate that they’re better as a team and individually without McGrady. Yao is blocking more shots in the past month and a half than he did during the first four months of the season. Luis Scola has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the change in Houston’s offensive philosophy. His points have jumped from about 11 ppg to 14 ppg, and he’s doing it more efficiently – shooting around 53% from the floor as opposed to 48% earlier on.
“Scola has been our MVP, hands down,” Battier said. “He’s been our best player. He’s been so consistent for us and he’s really held us together. He’s not a verbal guy but he’s just played, just his passion … and Yao’s been great at times, he’s been an anchor for us as well.”
So with the maturation of Scola, the lock-down defensive duo of Ron Artest and Shane Battier will this year’s post-season be any different for Houston? It’s tough to say, but there is one positive indicator in their favor.
In broad strokes, three-point shooting has hurt the Rockets in the post-season in their past two tries. They took about 21 three’s per contest in those two years combined, shooting 32% as a team in ‘06-07 and 30.8% in ‘07-08. McGrady went 14-60 (23% 3FG) combined during those 13 games. Shooting in the 23% range wouldn’t be back-breaking if a player only pulled five times.
Since McGrady and Alston left town, the Rockets are taking about 19 three’s per game. That’s dropped their rate to 20.4 three’s per night on the season, which is still fifth most in the League. Even more telling is Houston’s rate over their last seven game – in which they’ve gotten increasingly acclimated to life without Tracy or Skip; they’re pulling about 17 three’s per night now.
So what does all of this three-point analysis mean? Let’s look at one last stat: over the last three years, none of the three teams to make the Western Conference Finals (L.A., San Antonio, and Dallas) shot more three’s than they needed. The Lakers took about 18 per game in the playoffs, the Spurs shot about 19, and the Mavs about 15 per. Perhaps this season will end differently for Houston if they continue to curtail excessive three-point shooting. Unfortunately for Tracy McGrady and Rafer Alston, their absence from the lineup is one way to achieve that goal.
Source: SI
April 1st, 2009 at 5:34 pm
Ashlov says:
T-Mac being out of the lineup may not be enough for them to advance. They may need to ban him from the stadium.
April 1st, 2009 at 5:36 pm
AY says:
Ron Artest is a better compliment to what Yao and Scola can do, and they got some guys on the bench that can mix up the speed and game plan so it’s two completely different looks. So on one hand, they’ll get better in the playoffs because Ron is as tough as it comes. On the other hand, the effectiveness of von wafer/kyle lowry/run it back style in the second unit becomes much less effective in the playoffs. I hope they get out of the 1st round this year, just so they can try to get something out of McGrady instead of treating him like AIG and give him the “too big to fail/too big to trade” treatment.
April 1st, 2009 at 5:41 pm
LakeShow84 says:
Hard to believe the Spurs actually had Scola but traded him.. hes way better than Gooden..
If Yao is healthy they got a chance.. Adelman is a good coach.. Brooks will have to be consistent and RonRon cant keep on jacking when hes off.. and he will be off..
All in all, depends on the matchup.. they have a chance to beat the Nuggets, Hornets and Blazers but would have to play their best bball to beat anyone else in the playoffs.. except for the Mavs of course but we all know who the 8th seed is playing..
April 1st, 2009 at 6:19 pm
kevin k says:
I still can’t believe Tmac gets the blame… the true cancer has always been RAFER SCRUB TO MY LOU ALSTON.
seriously, before you bash me, go check Rockets record without TMAC not counting this year or last year’s fluke 22 win streak. they are like 5-30(not really, too lazy to get it but the win% is pathetically low)
the rockets played very well with TMAC when they had PG that hustled, and shot better than 39% alas Bob Sura, Mike James, and Jon Barry. They couldn’t advance because they were always inferior and Yao was nowhere as dominant as he is now. They did not have Scola either.
The team is def different now. Yao, Scola, Battier, and Artest are all at their prime, and they don’t have to worry about 20% TMAC slowing them down. They are def the dark horse of the west and are capable of beating any teams.
April 1st, 2009 at 6:22 pm
kevin k says:
and all you band wagon haters, i know you guys were jumping up and down when TMAC threw that dunk down on Shawn Bradley and were hoping for the Rockets to win. Also, some of the best playoff series in last couple years were UTAH vs Rockets.
April 1st, 2009 at 6:51 pm
George W Kush Sr says:
T Mac got old quick, but if you take away his paycheck, he’d be great on the second unit with a lesser role. This team is a team right now, its nice to see.
April 1st, 2009 at 7:13 pm
E$ says:
Curse? Is it the Back2Back champion curse? bad luck, if anything. Carl Landry, Carl Landry, Carl Landry…..
April 1st, 2009 at 7:32 pm
doc says:
2kevink-any record before that 22 game streak is 2 years or more ago so its really irrelavant because Tmac could dunk back then.But the truth is he looked like Fred Sanford out there and need to go chill with Elizabeth so H-town can make Gee happy and win 4 games in the playoffs this year..
April 1st, 2009 at 8:37 pm
AY says:
doc, i think redd foxx died almost 20 years ago; if you’re going to compare tmac to someone, can they please at least have been alive in the past decade. So to revise your comparison, i’d go with “tmac looked like Ray Charles with two poorly inserted glass eyes out there”.
April 1st, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Melo2TDot says:
Rick fox is definetely alive and frequently appears on the hit tv show The Game
April 1st, 2009 at 10:49 pm
haslem says:
dunno where else to post this:
Ramon sessions is not human
April 1st, 2009 at 11:01 pm
QQ says:
Totally agree with post 1.
TMac is the asshole who keeps pulling his team down with his retarded shooting and his attitude. That’s a fucking fact. Now that he’s gone, Rockets now have the best chance to advance.
April 1st, 2009 at 11:36 pm
dagwaller says:
Ashlov, thank you.
April 2nd, 2009 at 12:23 am
Ian says:
lakeshow everytime i see scola play i just want to shot someone
April 2nd, 2009 at 7:12 am
ya boy says:
Pray.Hard..that t-mac is outta town
April 2nd, 2009 at 8:40 am
POPPI GEE says:
Houston Up! I missed this one yesterday so here is the weigh in late.
All truth the Rockets are about the same squad last year with different parts and more defensive intensity.
In the playoffs you most def. can’t live by 1 style, and the Spurs have shown us that with being able to beat teams at their own thing (Sorry Suns).
So depending on where the chips fall, the keys will be minor big 3, of Ron, Scola and mainly Yao.
Yao has to be that dude these playoffs and dominate, stay outta foul trouble and not be a liability on D. He most def. has to stop with the crucial turnovers.
Again Ron has been on his best behavior all season so, kudos to him.
I feel good against most teams aside from Spurs, Utah and Lakers. Regardless it’s a fight with any in the West so lets get it on till we get it gone! Houston Up!
April 2nd, 2009 at 11:35 am
ruben says:
trade tmac next year for a role player. or at least someone who can jump. i mean tmac cant even get off the ground.
vince carter = rockets 2009-2010 nba champions.
nuff said.