What makes an NBA Draft bust?
Hasheem Thabeet
As not to break my own “It’s just summer league” adage, I won’t get too excited about the fact that Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough are rampaging through Orlando right now for my Pacers like Robert Parish and Kevin McHale in ‘86 (with A.J. Price as their Dennis Johnson).
We’re still months away from the real games, from even beginning to determine whether Hansbrough will become the good pro I think he’ll be, or the Lottery pick bust his harsher critics think he’ll be.
But what exactly is a bust? What’s the right equation measuring draft position versus NBA accomplishments that determines a bust? If you’re a Top-2 pick who made one All-Star appearance, was rarely (if ever) The Guy on a good team, but was a consistent starter over a decade-long span, are you a bust? (That’s you, Antonio McDyess.) If you went late in the Lottery and barely survived five years in the League, is that automatic bust status? (Todd Fuller, stand up.)
Or is it just all about hype? Is a bust only as big as the hype he has going into the NBA? Looking at the ‘09 Draft, Hasheem Thabeet went #2 to Blake Griffin’s #1, but the divide between the “can’t-miss” potential of Griffin versus Thabeet is much wider. While Thabeet could be an All-Star, a lot of experts have predicted he won’t amount to anything in the League. At the same time, about 95% of the reviews on Griffin pretty much guarantee he’ll be an All-Star, and soon.
So if Thabeet turns into, say, Kendrick Perkins, is he a bust? Probably not. But what if Griffin matches Perk’s production? He’d definitely be considered a bust.
When people get into hindsight, history becomes easily revisionist. Everybody who hypes Blake as a surefire star today will be clowning the Clippers for picking him if he doesn’t work out by 2013. And the same people who shook their heads at Memphis this year will be calling Chris Wallace a visionary if Thabeet has an Alonzo Mourning-like career.
Anybody can look smart years after the fact. One reason I never bash Michael Jordan too much for taking Kwame Brown is because, back in 2001, EVERYBODY thought Kwame would be a star. If he’d slipped past the Top-5 in that Draft, in the next morning’s papers GMs would have been ridiculed for not taking the kid. I remember reading scouting reports on Kwame from ‘01 that called him the future of the power forward position, the next Kevin Garnett, and all the same praise you hear about Blake Griffin today.
I did some digging for at-the-time mock drafts of a random class: 1998. That’ll always be known as the year the Clippers took Michael Olowokandi #1 over Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce; the year Pierce slipped to 10th; and the year Dirk was traded for Tractor Traylor on Draft Night. In 2009, we can look back and clown. Back then?
In a mock draft done a few days before the actual draft, Sports Illustrated’s Jackie MacMullan didn’t even have Dirk going in the first round. Among the players she had slated to go in front of Dirk: Michael Doleac, Keon Clark, Vladimir Stepania, J.R. Henderson, and the immortal Ansu Sesay.
Also for SI that year, longtime NBA coach Bob Hill did a mock draft, which included this evaluation of Olowokandi: “This player has an enormous upside. He runs the 40 in 4.5 seconds, he has a 7-8 wingspan, he’s intelligent, he’s a great kid, he has a wonderful work ethic. The downside is he’s not a great shot blocker and he hasn’t played very much. But he’s a player who can overcome the lack of experience, and you can teach him to be a better shot blocker. He should be an awfully good NBA player.”
And Hill is no dummy (although a lot of Sonics fans would argue me on that); he had Pierce going 3rd in his draft, and his report on Dirk (which did describe Dirk as “big-boned”) included this: “You look at him and say ‘He’s just a basketball player. The Lord put him on the Earth just to play basketball.’ He might be — might be — the best player in the draft.”
The point is, none of us really knows anything. We can all predict who will be a star and who will be a bust, and at the end of the day, that’s all NBA GM’s are doing — guessing, predicting, and hoping they’re right. Back in ‘98, it wasn’t a crazy idea to pick Olowokandi #1 overall. Back in ‘01, Kwame made sense as a franchise building block. And in ‘09, Blake Griffin seems like far and away the best player in his draft. But the people who made the investment in Blake are guessing, just like the rest of us.
July 9th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
fallinup says:
Good one here, AB. All I can do is agree.
July 9th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
the cynic says:
The easiest way to spot an NBA bust is to look at which organization drafted him. Competent coaching and front office management goes a long way. The Kandi man probably could have been a good player if he didn’t start out with the clippers
July 9th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
robmo35 says:
Good article, and dead on about Kwame Brown. Had Jordan selected the player who turned out to be the class of that draft, Pau Gasol, with the first pick he would have been lambasted.
July 9th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Simon says:
I don’t know why people hate on you sometimes AB! The stories are always solid topics and the quality of writing is always excellent. Thanks for keeping me entertained at work!
July 9th, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Spliff 2 My Lou says:
You’re right, it’s all a crap shoot. I remember thinking Jonathan Bender was going to be great. I know his career was derailed by injuries but that’s just it. A player may have all the potential in the world or may be the best player at any given moment but it’s impossible to predict the career injury plague.
July 9th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Drink the Haterade says:
People always want to blame Kwame for not producing as a #1. My argument has always been you can’t blame him, he was drafted, he sucked then. MJ drafted him, blame the GM not the player.
If they told me that I was gonna be the #1 pick, I wouldn’t say “no, I’m not good enough, pick someone else”
And I can’t even run anymore.
July 9th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Tinmar says:
But in 1992 Shaq was the #1 and he worth it… In 1998, Duncan also did…
Every year, it is very difficult to know who will be a bust, but sometimes it is very easy to pick the good one when you have the first pick : it was easy for Shaq or Duncan or LeBron…
Simple question : is it easier to pick a future star than a future bust?
July 9th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Big Island says:
Great article.
July 9th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
knock knock says:
ALl we learned is that most nba scouts don’t know players at all. Such as the deal with Ricky rubio, tall pg with little to no athleticism, and gms are in love with him as much as they were with darko in 2003.
I would love you guys to write an article about why rubio becomes a bust in a couple years. Starting with the names of the scouts who were so enamored with him.-
July 9th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
BiG ShoT BoB says:
Yeah loved the article AB great points here and I agree with everything said. I’ve heard sure fire pick with Griffin and countless other players through the years and the truth is no ones a sure fire pick. I think what they mean is the player has the physical tools and potential to be a sure fire pick provided he doesn’t get injured, keeps a good work ethic even after he gets paid. Tht’s another thing that I think effects a lot of players. The money. It’s very hard once a guy gets all the money he thinks he needs to stay hungery. I mean how many of us can do the same job for years while making guaranteed money and still go out on your own everyday and bust your ass to get better. When you can go out make it rain on all the groupies, drive fast european cars, and do this – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7yfISlGLNU everyday?
July 9th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
YOUNGFED says:
Nawl, Blake is the truth and thats a FEDRODOMOUS prediction.
July 9th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
fallinup says:
The best teams arn’t the ones that get the 1st pick…they’re the ones that can make a mid-nothing pick into something. Spurs come to mind just with Manu and Parker becoming stars. I think it’s more impressive when teams pick diamonds in the rough than a number 1 panning out.
And just to throw it out there…I was looking at Rubio’s draft pictures. With him in a suit…that kid’s hands are HUGE!…like, bigger than White Chocolate’s hands. I’ve always said handsize helps in predicting a good player. If so, Rubio’s gonna be a star.
July 9th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
sh!tfaced says:
anybody drafted by the clippers will eventually be a bust. unless they get traded.
July 9th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
Shrink This says:
Amen Austin.
July 9th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
kowtz says:
Hype…
Can you imagine picking a Mid Range guard with sub par 3 point accuracy (jordan), over a 7′1″ Center, with par defense, above par rebounding, and a better shot at the three than him? (sam bowie)
July 9th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
g says:
McDyess doesn’t deserve to be slagged into this conversation, unless you are going to contend that injuries constitute a bust, which I don’t think they should.
That guy could have averaged 20-10 for years and been a hall of famer if not for the micro-fracs. He practically averaged a double-double JUST LAST YEAR, OFF THE BENCH… which is why San Antonio wasted no time in picking him up.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:07 am
Kevin says:
Good read AB
July 10th, 2009 at 1:26 am
Ian says:
tinmar duncan was 97
robmo no jordan wouldnt have been lambasted if he pick paul over here we thought he could be the number 1 pick but you guys have some weirds scouts that hype the shit out of many guys.
austin good article but mcdyess was an excellent player he made an allnba and allstar team how is he a bust?
July 10th, 2009 at 3:35 am
vince says:
?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!!?!?!??!!?!?!?
Antonio McDyess was a beast before injuries… how is he a bust?
July 10th, 2009 at 4:55 am
SwedishMooze says:
I remember sitting in Arco Arena when Geoff Petrie was booed for taking Peja… the whole place was cheering and chanting for John Wallace after his run with Cuse… how’d that play out?
July 10th, 2009 at 6:50 am
Flying_Aussie_Dutchman says:
Great great article AB.. Some people may give you shit about your articles, but man, I think you write some pretty good stuff.
This kinda stuff is good to read, keep them coming.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:06 am
Chicagorilla says:
Just because Michael Jordan held the president position at Washington doesn’t mean he picked Kwame. That’s what the GM’s job is right? Now he’s in Charlotte and he still is not the GM, yet everyone keeps saying these are his picks. They are not. Mike could have some infulence on the pick because of his positon of power, but the GM is the one who makes that call to D.Stern on draft night. So stop saying MJ picked Kwame, it’s like everyone wants MJ to be fucking up when he really doesn’t have his hand in that shit.
July 10th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Dukesman2000 says:
No one knows but Thabeet will be a bust
July 10th, 2009 at 10:28 am
parker says:
Thabeet is an African Shawn whatchamacalit from Utah
July 10th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
chris says:
draft busts are easy. if you get a player with a top 15 pick who (barring injuries) doesn’t contribute in the league for at least a few years, that’s a bust.
hard to judge the 06/07/08 drafts yet, but looking at the top 15 picks for the prior 6 years, some clear draft busts stand out:
2005 – fran vasquez, y. korolev, sean may, rashad mccants
2004 – r. araujo, luke jackson, robert swift, sebastian telfair
2003- darko milicic, mike sweetney, marcus banks, reece gaines
2002- nikoloz tskitisvili, dajuan wagner, melvin ely, marcus haslip, fred jones
2001 – kwame brown, eddie griffin, desagana diop, rodney white, kedrick brown, steven hunter
2000 – stromile swift, marcus fizer, dermarr johnson, chris mihm, jerome moiso, courtney alexander, mateen cleaves, jason collier
to me, it looks like 4 to 6 of the top 15 picks are busts every year, and in years when the talent pool is a bit thinner, even more. i guess predicting performance over even 5 years from a 20 year old is risky business, thank god i don’t have to run my business that way.
July 10th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
jay says:
i cant see psycho t being a complete bust! he was picked in the teens…if he was a lottery pick yeah but he is what 13…if he turns into a role player..bird is a genius.. a role player at 8 is a bust..but whom am i …stephen a smith??
July 10th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
BiG ShoT BoB says:
Listening to these comments I think the problem is people think the NBA should consist of 12 allstars on every team when that’s just not the way it works. Guys just don’t get drafted because GM’s think their going to be stars they also make picks based on needs. The truth is most teams are built with 9 or 10 role players and 2 or 3 certified allstars if that. Everyone can’t be a Lebron or Kobe in fact most people are not going to be, that’s what makes those players special. Just like we all can’t be doctors or lawyers and most people are either cleaning floors, working in the kitchen, or picking up trash. They are just important. Everybody needs someone to do the dirty work the NBA is no different.
July 11th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Maynard says:
Nice drop. I will point out that nobody will — or at least should — kill the Clips if Griffin isn’t all that since they didn’t have an alternative, except for trading the pick. There was no clear-cut second-best player in this draft, and they would have been immolated immediately for passing on the obvious choice.
You can’t blame Jordan for trying it with Kwame and his potential. You CAN blame him for decimating the kid’s chances after he took him by tormenting him with his exclusive brand of psychological abuse.
I think Fordham fans would argue that assessment of Hill as well! But he was dead-on with Dirk.