Amar'e Stoudemire

Even the worst team in the NBA is one monster season by one player away from getting back in the playoff race. And it doesn’t always have to be a superstar putting in an MVP-caliber effort, either. Earlier this week (Part 1 and Part 2) I looked at some ‘09 Lottery teams and pinpointed one player who can get them back into postseason contention in 2010. Here are the remaining five guys in need of a big year…

AMAR’E STOUDEMIRE, PF/C, Suns
So much for “The Amar’e Stoudemire Project.” Remember when Shaq first got to the Suns and vowed to turn STAT into the best PF in the League and fulfill his potential as “The Next”? In hindsight, all Shaq’s stint in Phoenix did was delay — if not irreparably damage — Stoudemire’s ascension to becoming the franchise centerpiece. But assuming Amar’e isn’t traded and plays out the string this season, he’ll be the one who gets this team back to the playoffs.

When Phoenix fired Terry Porter during the All-Star break and re-installed the Mike D’Antoni system under Alvin Gentry, Stoudemire (21.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg) played like an MVP and the Suns looked unstoppable, averaging 141 points a night. But that only lasted two games. What looked like a simple eye poke against the Clippers on Feb. 18 turned into a season-ending injury, and without Amar’e, the Suns landed in the Lottery for the first time in the Steve Nash era.

Now that he’s the focal point of the offense again, the only real threat on the interior, and the offense is geared toward his strengths, Stoudemire will tote the rock more than Bo Jackson on Tecmo Bowl. You know he’ll kill teams on the pick-and-roll with Nash, but Amar’e has diversified his game. Last season he shot 44.2% on two-point jumpers (NBA leader Jason Terry hit 49%), betters than Pierce, Duncan, D-Wade, Brandon Roy, Rip Hamilton and David West.

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SPENCER HAWES, C, Kings
The Kings have plenty scorers on the perimeter with Kevin Martin, Tyreke Evans and Francisco Garcia. What they need is point production in the paint to balance the floor, as well as somebody to defend the middle. Sacramento had the League’s second-worst defense, giving up 109 points per game, and opponents shot a League-best 48.3% from the field against them.

The center position in the West is the weakest its been in years, with Shaq gone to Cleveland and Yao Ming out for the season, meaning Hawes can (by default at worst) make some headway as one of the up-and-comers at the position. And with more opportunities to win his position matchup every night, he’ll build more confidence in his game. Hawes averaged 11.4 points, 7.1 boards and 1.2 blocks last season, and unveiled a long-distance element to his game (115 three-point attempts) that made him like a poor man’s Zydrunas Ilgauskas. He got better as the season went on, too: All eight of his 20-plus-point games during the season were in March and April, and his last month included standout performances against the Rockets, Spurs, Lakers and Nuggets.

After skipping summer league, Hawes has a little hole to dig himself out of with new coach Paul Westphal. But seeing as he’s the only true center on Sacramento’s roster, it should be a quick reconciliation.

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Jeff Green (photo. David Deal)

JEFF GREEN, PF/SF, Thunder
Kevin Durant will get his 25 a night, Russell Westbrook is poised for a breakout season on-par with Deron Williams‘ second year, and rookies James Harden and Byron “I’m not B.J.” Mullens will be predictably up and down. Green will be the X-factor whose play either gets the Thunder to official “dangerous” status, or allows them to stay doormats.

The de facto leader of OKC’s core group off the court, Green (16.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is the Swiss Army Knife on it, who at 6-9 can play three positions. While he was originally drafted to be the Pippen to Durant’s MJ, depending on the night, he can also be the Odom to KD’s Kobe.

Along with Westbrook, Kyle Weaver and Thabo Sefalosha, Green is one of the OKC’s go-to defenders, who can help put a dent in the 103 points the Thunder surrended per night. And offensively, when Green’s jump shot is on, the team is a threat. He hit 38% beyond the arc last season, but in January, when Green shot 46% from three-point range, OKC was 7-7, their best month of the season and one where they didn’t have a losing streak longer than two games. Green needs to improve his mid-range game, too. He hit 34% on two-point jumpers, right in line with notorious rim-denters like Josh Smith, Ron Artest and Rajon Rondo. At the same time, 40% of Green’s attempts were two-point J’s. In other words, if he’s gonna take them, he needs to hit them more consistently.

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YI JIANLIAN, PF, Nets
By replacing Vince Carter with Courtney Lee and Terrence Williams, the Nets improve defensively, but take a big hit on the other end of the floor. Devin Harris and Brook Lopez will anchor the offense from the point and the paint, respectively, but after that there’s a void that may have to be filled by Yi.

Power forward is NJ’s glaring weak spot. Numbers-crunching site 82games.com put together a by-position ranking of each team in the League, and long explanation short, the Nets graded out among the worst in the NBA at the four spot last season. Yi (8.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) had a big hand in that. While he missed 21 games due to injury, when he was on the court, he shot just 38% from the field and routinely got beasted on defense.

At his best, Yi can step out and shoot from mid-range and long-range, drawing opposing bigs away from the lane to make things easier for Lopez on the boards. Reports out of China say he’s looked real good with the national team this summer. If he steps his NBA game up (A LOT), the Nets could improve on last season’s 34-win record and make a run in the Atlantic Division, where they fell short of a playoff spot in the final days of last season.

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ANTHONY RANDOLPH, PF/SF, Warriors
Nellie’s system is controlled chaos that relies on athletes who can play multiple positions. Apparently you can plug almost any guard/wing in there and they’ll get 20 points a night (Anthony Morrow, Kelenna Azubuike, C.J. Watson, etc.), but the key is getting some kind of production from the 4/5 spots. While Andris Biedrins is grabbing all the rebounds he can and trying to do something on D, he’s just one man.

Randolph is a threat all over the court who’s ready to start at the four. After Nellie predictably jerked him around on playing time his rookie year (17 mpg, 7.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Randolph dominated the Vegas Summer League, averaging 26.8 points, 8.5 boards, 3.0 blocks and 2.2 steals. At 6-10, Randoloph is a classic matchup problem: faster and more athletic than most power forwards, taller and more polished on the low-block than a lot of small forwards. In yesterday’s Contra Costa Times, Randolph was described as being “entrenched as a cornerstone of the franchise.”

The Warriors won’t improve much on their NBA-worst defense (112 ppg) or rebounding differential (-5.06); the last time they made the playoffs, Golden State gave up 106 points and got outrebounded by an average of 5.01 per game. What they can do to turn things around is stay healthy (Monta Ellis), find some leadership and an identity (a la Baron Davis in ‘07), and at least get some stops and some rebounds in key spots. Randolph can help take care of that last part, as well as put another guy on the floor who can drop 30 at a moment’s notice.

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