Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Oct 30, 2009 / 2:00 pm

Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Week 1

Richard Jefferson

After the first few days of NBA action, it’s time to take a gander at players who might have already frustrated impatient fantasy owners enough to make them amenable to low-ball offers, and those that have performed especially well and will get you more than they deserve in return.

It’s a bit early to even discuss this, but there are very impatient owners out there and so long as they’re flustered or overly optimistic, there are opportunities for you to jump on.

Buy Low:
Richard Jefferson is averaging 7/3/3 while shooting 25 percent from the field after his first two games with the Spurs. He’s most likely just getting acclimated to his new squad and should pick it up within the next week.

Al Jefferson played poorly in his first game while dealing with an Achilles injury. He plays again tonight and if he turns in another clunker, he’ll be an even better buy-low candidate. If you’re bullish about his health, target him with all the guns you can spare.

Antawn Jamison is out for another handful of games, but you might be able to pry him away from his owner at 80 cents on the dollar. This also goes for Rashard Lewis and J.R. Smith.

D.J. Augustin is being dropped faster than Jennifer Aniston, which is borderline insane. He had one bad game when his team was pummeled into the ground by a team favored by many to reach the Finals, which is far from enough to warrant such quick dismissal. Raja Bell isn’t opting for surgery yet, but Augustin should still benefit from additional minutes going forward. His production will come, so nab him from the waiver wire or unhappy owners as fast as you can.

Tony Parker is putting up mediocre numbers by his standards, partly because of a hard fall in his first game. He’ll be the stud to own on the Spurs later on in the season and their playoff schedule is incredible. If you’re ever going to be able to buy low on TP, now’s the time.

Sell High:
Carmelo Anthony is averaging 35.5 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, a three and 2.5 turnovers while shooting 51.2 percent from the field and 86.2 percent from the charity stripe. His scoring, rebounding, dishing, pilfering and three-point shooting are all somewhat sustainable, but his turnovers will likely increase and his shooting percentages will decline after another week of games. Maybe this is a bit bearish, but if you agree then now’s the time to swap him out for another stud with a better chance at giving you solid all-around numbers on a nightly basis.

Jermaine O’Neal put up 22/12 in his first game of the season while shooting 83.3 percent (10-12) from the field and 100% (2-2) from the line, but didn’t block any shots. His line surely caught the attention of some owners out there, so flip him for some better long-term value while there’s time. He can’t keep this up and the clock is ticking on his health.

Danilo Gallinari is averaging 7 threes per game this season. Yes, he’s only played one game, but this might still be enough to entice bullish owners to give up more than they should for him. Gallinari will be a rollercoaster this year, and it might not get any higher than this.

Al Horford should be great to own this season, but he won’t be able to sustain his current one-game averages of 24/16/4 along with 2 blocks and just 1 turnover. If, for some reason, you’re looking to deal him, now’s the time.

Andrew Bynum was great in his first game, notching 26/13/2 along with a steal and a block. Two things are working against him being able to replicate this type of performance on a nightly basis: Pau Gasol‘s nearing return and the chances of another injury. The good news is that Gasol isn’t expected to play on Sunday and maybe even beyond, which gives risk averse owners plenty of time to swap Bynum and his risks for another stud without so many uncertainties.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • rudderband man

    Hey Doc, Augustin just got dropped in my league. Who do you think will have a better season, him or Andre Miller? I’m losing patience with Miller already.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @rudderband: Sorry about Miller. I don’t blame you for the lost patience.

    I think coach McMillan is going to have to choose between Blake and Miller sooner than later, and he’ll probably have to choose Miller given the $ they spent on him this offseason. He might salvage his value and your trust, but it might take another week or so to find out.

    I would still rather own Augustin at this point, but if Miller can notch 28+ minutes a night he’ll be productive enough. If possible, wait to see how Augustin fares tonight against the Knicks.

  • Rizwan

    Hey FD, I’m looking for a SF pick up and seen a few on waiver. What do you think is best – Yi Jianlian, Grant Hill, Travis Outlaw, Nocioni or Martell Webster?

    Also, trade option – Danny Granger for Milsap and Thaddeus Young?

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Rizwan: I think the order you put them is just about right.

    For the trade, I think whoever gets Granger wins.

  • RonNation

    Should I keep Andray Blatch or pick up Maurice Speights

  • http://www.basketsim.com/ BNZA

    Whats up Doc, can we rock?!

    Should I make a trade were I get Oden and give up Villanueva?

  • http://www.basketsim.com/ BNZA

    Drop TJ Ford for Danilo Gallinari??

    I´m afraid of Fords inconsitency and love Gallinari in D’Antonis system.

    I already have Deron, Rajon & Chalmers at PG and need a SF. Whadyathink?

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @RonNation: Stick with Blatche.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @BNZA: If you need blocks and boards, I have no problem with that deal.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @BNZA: I think Ford still has value to be had. If you really can’t think of anyone else to drop and if you’re that high on Gallo, sure. Ford will probably have some trade value for you though.

  • http://www.basketsim.com/ BNZA

    aight thanks man, I think I go with the higher ceiling

  • http://twitter.com/anthonyeladjo abpin

    What’s the word with Jamal Crawford? You think he’s gonna have a productive season? So far I’ve heard injuries over the preseason and he had a dismal first game.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @abpin: He should see more minutes going forward: http://blogs.ajc.com/hawks/2009/10/30/woodys-words-of-wisdom/?cxntfid=blogs_hawks

    I think he’ll be a decent source of points and threes and will have nice streaks of bigger value, but don’t expect the Crawford of old.

  • advocate

    doc,
    on an offnote…is larry hughes gonna play this season? what’s the deal?

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @advocate: He’s a buyout candidate. There are murmurs of a buyout then a signing with the Cavs, who could use him to plug the gap left by Delonte West, but that is far from certain. Don’t touch him until there’s more substantial information available.

  • fLaVa

    Doc,

    Who do u think will benifit most from VC going down? I see after tonights game, everyone was around 25 mins because they are so deep.

    who do u think will absorb some of his mins and production?

  • fLaVa

    I personaly think Ryan Anderson will be nice even after Shard comes back if VC is out for a long period of time

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @fLaVa: Carter says he wants to play on Sunday against the Raptors, his former team. He is usually motivated to do his best against his old crew so expect him to play.

  • general motors

    Doc,

    Im currently on head-head 10 teams fantasy n here’s my roster.
    1. T. Evans
    2. Kevin Martin
    3. Ben Gordon
    4. Andre Iguodala
    5. A. Blatche
    6. Richard Jefferson
    7. C. Kaman
    8. Arron Brooks
    9. Martell Webster
    10.Josh Howard
    11.C. Bosh
    12.Rudy Gay
    13.D.Howard
    14.Luol Deng
    15.Kenyon Martin

    ..if Kirk Hinrich is available, would u drop luol deng for hinrich(as i try not to have 2 same team player in the roster)or drop others..or remain unchanged?

    secondly, is there anyone i should drop or trade away??

    thanks for the advice.

  • LAballer

    any word on why the hell j rich isnt playing?? there is no mention of this anywhere

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @general motors: Nice front line, though you could use more stability at the PG spot. Evans is nice, but not the best option.

    Given your roster, I would strongly consider swapping out Deng for Hinrich, since he gives you stats (threes, assists) that your team lacks, while Deng gives you stats you don’t really need.

    If you wanted to, you could trade away Blatche, whose value could drop a bit when Jamison (and now, Butler) returns. His stock is pretty high right now, so you might be able to get a lot in return.

    I’m not sure Webster is much better than options that should be sitting out on the waiver wire, since he’ll likely battle Outlaw for major minutes during the season.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @LAballer: J-Rich was serving a two-game suspension, so he’ll be back on Sunday.

  • LAballer

    lol i got j rich serving his two, jr serving his nine..jamison out and okur injured within the first four seconds of the nba season..im glad my team is already falling apart hahah..def not winning first week..

  • Sweet English

    Fantasy Doctor

    Im having nightmares with my C trouble. Marc Gasol was available and my expectations of him were pretty high from day 1, so i dropped Bogut and picked him up which i think will pay off, i dont trust either Boguts health or production consistancy. Good move?

    And secondly, Maureece speights is making a name for himself while Dalambeast lags behind, Iv got Shaq in my line up, but he is KILLING my free throw % and isnt making much noise anywhere else. Speights 4 Shaq? Is that going to be a smart move long term?

    get at me fantasy doctor.

  • Sweet English

    p.s Iv managed to pick up Kobe and Lebron so im sorted in most categories, all im worried about is Blocks, boards and ft%.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Sweet English: How you managed to get Kobe and LeBron is beyond me. Three-man league?

    Yes, good move on Gasol.

    I don’t like Shaq long-term, but I only like Speights if Brand or Dalembert sit out with an injury. Speights will help you a lot more in FT%, but when he played, Shaq will be much better and reliable for boards and blocks.

  • the truth

    doc, I’m starting to hate Charlie V. Speights is still available in our league; should I grab him, I’m really in need of REBS and I only have 4 PF/C-eligible players (M Gasol, Lopez, Boozer, Charlie V)

    Thanks.

  • MSkittle

    I got offered Artest for Gallinari. Should I do it?

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @the truth: I wouldn’t give up on Villanueva just yet, and Speights still has to steal a starting spot to have consistent value. I’d wait on it.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @MSkittle: If you would benefit from the threes, yes.

  • Blackmamba12

    Fantasy Doctor, Ive got Kobe, tony parker, melo, stoudemire and boozer, and ive been offered a trade of trevor ariza who is tunrover prone for ron artest and andre miller should i do it? also where can i find help with rebounds and blocks becuase im getting destroyed in those areas

  • Duck

    In my league I can pick up Richard Jefferson or D.J. Augustine. Which one of these guys should I pick up?

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Blackmamba12: If you’re getting Ariza, I like that deal for you. Your team is already TO prone so you’d be punting that but getting good production everywhere else in return. Artest and Miller don’t look as solid right now.

    It’s tough to say without knowing how large your league is, but Ben Wallace, Marreese Speights, Andray Blatche, Marc Gasol and Erick Dampier might be good for those stats.

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @ Duck: I’d say RJ is the more reliable option.

  • Simon

    Hey Fantasy Doctor,

    I just dropped Charlie V and John Salmons, then I picked up Aaron Brooks and Jeff Green.

    Devin Harris went down and he was my only PG. That is what triggered the move. Did I make a good call?

  • http://dimemag.com/category/fantasy-basketball/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Simon: Good call.