Jermaine O'Neal

Last year we debuted the “Highs and Lows” system — previewing the NBA season by predicting the respective ceiling and basement for each team. Same theme, different season…

Added: Carlos Arroyo, Quentin Richardson, Shavlik Randolph

Lost: Jamario Moon, Luther Head, Mark Blount

Ceiling: 4th seed, Eastern Conference
Of the three things that absolutely have to happen for the Heat to perform up to their potential, at least two of them — and some people would say all three — are long shots. First, Dwyane Wade has to be dominant from wire to wire, just like he was last season (30.2 ppg, 5 rpg, 7.5 apg, 2.1 spg). Second, Michael Beasley has to make the leap from promising rookie to legitimately dangerous threat, preferably of the 20-and-10 variety. And third, Jermaine O’Neal has to stay healthy, hopefully for 70-75 games … Wade turning in another MVP-caliber season is the most likely scenario. Beasley will see a lot more minutes as the starting small forward and can score with almost anybody at the position; if his personal problems are held in-check, he could be the beast Miami needs him to be. And O’Neal averaged 13 points and two blocks for the Heat after coming over in a midseason trade; if he improves his rebounding (5.4 rpg), he gives them a strong presence in the middle … Mario Chalmers is coming off a solid rookie year where he started every game at point guard, got some playoff experience, and proved to be a budding defensive stopper. Newly-signed backup Carlos Arroyo is an upgrade over Chris Quinn, and being stronger at the point takes pressure off Wade to create everything by himself … On the same note, the Heat have good shooters in Chalmers, Beasley, Daequan Cook, James Jones and Quentin Richardson to spread the floor, keep the defense honest, and therefore make Wade’s drives to the rim more effective.

Basement: 8th seed, Eastern Conference
The offseason stalemate between Wade and Pat Riley was indicative of Miami’s potential downside. Wade is the stand-alone superstar here, and before committing to a long-term extension, he wanted Riley to make some moves in free agency. Riley, on the other hand, didn’t want to venture into Luxury Tax Land when he had no guarantee Wade would even be there beyond 2010 to make the investments worth it. So nobody did anything, and the Heat go into this season with another mediocre roster and no read on Wade’s future plans … O’Neal played 68 games last season, but started to break down towards the end, missing Game Six and playing just 42 seconds of Game Seven in the Atlanta series. He just turned 31 this week, but his body seems seven years older. And behind J.O. at center is even more creaky Jamaal Magloire and undersized Joel Anthony … Center isn’t the only position where depth is a concern. Udonis Haslem’s backup at PF is Shavlik Randolph; Arroyo can be a nice change-of-pace PG one day and a reckless turnover machine the next; Cook wants to prove he’s more than just a spot-up shooter at the two; and Jones isn’t any more than a spot-up shooter at the three, plus Dorell Wright is looking more and more like a total bust … Even if Beasley improves on his rookie numbers (13.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg), will he improve enough to be the reliable #2 option Wade needs to make the Heat a serious contender? Personal issues aside, Beasley’s defense still has a long way to go, and he’ll be playing outside of his natural power forward position … Wade can carry Miami to the playoffs again — he’s too good not to at least get them an 8th seed in the East — but the conference is tougher this year. Once they get to the playoffs, having a superstar like Wade makes the Heat a threat against anyone in a seven-game series. It’s getting a favorable seed that will be the tough part.

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10/19 — Oklahoma City Thunder
10/19 — Milwaukee Bucks
10/15 — Portland Trail Blazers
10/14 — Chicago Bulls
10/13 — Golden State Warriors
10/12 — Toronto Raptors
10/9 — Houston Rockets
10/8 — Detroit Pistons
10/7 — Memphis Grizzlies
10/6 — New York Knicks
10/5 — New Orleans Hornets
10/2 — Atlanta Hawks
9/30 — Sacramento Kings
9/29 — New Jersey Nets
9/28 — Denver Nuggets

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