New Orleans Hornets ‘09-10 NBA season preview
The NBA preseason is underway, meaning it’s time again for Dime’s team-by-team season previews. Last year we debuted the “Highs and Lows” system — predicting the respective ceilings and basements for each team. In other words, what is the realistic best-case and worst-case scenario for the 2009-10 campaign?
Added: Emeka Okafor, Darren Collison, Darius Songaila, Marcus Thornton, Ike Diogu, Bobby Brown
Lost: Tyson Chandler, Rasual Butler, Antonio Daniels, Melvin Ely, Ryan Bowen
Ceiling: Conference semifinals
Contrary to Chris Paul’s blinding speed on the hardwood, the Hornets aren’t a running team. While they aren’t quite deliberate in pace, either, they did rank 26th in the NBA in scoring (95.8 ppg), and 27th in field-goal attempts (77.6 per game) last season. Translation: Possessions are at a valued premium in New Orleans, and with CP in control of the ball most of the time, the team benefits from having the most efficient and arguably most effective floor leader in the game. (You know I have to say “arguably” only because of my affinity for Tony Parker.) Paul should’ve garnered stronger MVP talk last season; he averaged 22.8 points, 11 assists, 5.5 boards and 2.8 steals, and took a team with a banged-up Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic and a slightly disappointing James Posey to the playoffs. He’s a Top-10 player in the League. Okafor isn’t as kinetic as Chandler, but he’s better offensively and more consistent defensively. He’s a lock for a double-double, while All-Star power forward David West is a lock for 20 points and eight boards a night. When healthy, Peja is still a premier shooter in the League, and rookies Collison and Thornton provide much-needed depth at PG so Paul won’t be so worn down by the postseason. Winning the Southwest Division isn’t too lofty of a goal — N.O. was only five games back last year, and the Rockets are weaker — and with the right playoff matchup, neither is advancing a round.
Basement: 1st-round exit
As bad as N.O.’s first-round loss to Denver played out, it was merely the manifestation of multiple red flags that popped up during the regular season — most notably Chandler’s durability and CP’s inability to do everything by himself. Despite the center upgrade with Okafor, some of those same issues still exist. While strong at the one, four and five, the Hornets are most docile at the two positions that are generally supposed to be the most explosive: shooting guard and small forward. Julian Wright is slated to start at the three, while Peja moves to a sixth-man role. Wright is talented but unproven going into his third year. Every time the Hornets give him a chance to shine, he doesn’t come through. Peja’s notoriously fragile body could better hold up if his minutes are limited, but the shooting touch that he’s being paid to provide often deserts him in the playoffs, healthy or injured. Against Denver he hit just 36.7% from the field, 30.8% beyond the arc. At the two, I honestly don’t even know who’s supposed to start. Morris Peterson is an old 32, and basically fell out of the rotation last year, while Devin Brown is a serviceable reserve role player at best, not a starter. Songaila and Diogu were brought in to backup West, and Hilton Armstrong is N.O.’s seven-foot version of Wright. Depth and talent in the frontcourt beyond West and Okafor is a problem. Led by CP, making the playoffs shouldn’t be a problem. Having the horses to run with the best of the Western Conference, however, isn’t a one-man job.
*** *** ***
10/2 — Atlanta Hawks
9/30 — Sacramento Kings
9/29 — New Jersey Nets
9/28 — Denver Nuggets
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October 5th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
BRUCE says:
Hornets fate is decided by CP3. They will go as far as he take them!
October 5th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
K Dizzle says:
I would take this squad more seriously if they hadn’t just given Rasual Butler away…
October 5th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Jake says:
CP3 is a fantastic player, but like you said he can’t do everything. Health is a big issue for this team as well. They need a deeper bench and Paul playing less minutes for them to be succesful. Their slightly undersized playing Okafor at the center and as stated they need a legit 2 and 3. If they can stay healthy and somehow manage to snag a good swingman through a trade (which may not even be possible since they have no real trade chips) and CP3 can get rest during the regular season they could go deeper in the playoffs, Paul can single handidly win a series if need be (even that might be an overstatement considering how tough the West is). The X factor though, is definitely James Posey who didn’t do a thing to prove he was worth the money. This is a team where all the pieces must click or they wont go anywhere.
October 5th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
chebs says:
two double double guys plus chris paul..i like it
October 5th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
ticktock6 says:
I can’t argue with a lot of this. The Hornets are the type of team that, if they’ve got the mindset and the chemistry and a little bit of luck, could go WCF finals deep. But… the right factors have to fall into place. I think the roster’s more talented, plus the odds are against the team being so injured two years in a row. I see them as a low 50-win team. I’m intrigued about Emeka Okafor. Also it is notable that they were on top of the West most of 07-08 without a quick 2 or 3. (There are some early indications out of training camp that Peja is going to slide over to the 2 with the second unit, BTW.) I don’t know… there are just those teams that don’t seem like they should work on paper and then they do because everyone’s on the same page. I’m anxious to see what happens!
October 5th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
loganlight says:
We disagree Austin…
I see the basement for the Hornets as missing the playoffs all together – a scenario that I believe will happen. Don’t be surprised to see CP3 as disgruntled as ever when the season finishes up.
The West has improved too much for the Hornets lack of style to fit in… 2 years ago they were able to run, last year they hobbled, this year I expect a crawl. Should be interesting to watch them develop, but PHX and UTH will return to the playoffs and Portland is too young and talented to miss out as well… PLUS, I think this is the year that Durant makes his mark on the postseason. OKC will take the Hornets spot.
Bold predictions? Naw, just the truth.
LL
October 5th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
the cynic says:
this team stinks, unless Peja somehow travels back in time 7 years to when he still had game
October 5th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
bob says:
I just can’t take those who say the Hornets won’t make the playoffs seriously.
They added two decent back-up bigs, two promising rookie guards, and traded a hobbled Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. But that wasn’t enough, apparently. Having better, healthier players makes them less likely to make the playoffs.
Oh, how did I forget the below average starting shooting guard, Rasual Butler? Without him, the Hornets are doomed.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:01 am
Trey bing bay says:
WCF is optimistic at best. As long as they stay healthy and Juju does something/anything to keep Peja coming off the bench then who knows WCF it might just be. Whatever happens i’m curious to see what Emeka can do, should be a good season. I wish it would hurry up and start otherwise I may be forced to watch the WNBA finals…..if it’s still going on!?
Also lets hope Devin Brown has channeled his inner Kobe and been a demon in the gym. Probably not.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:41 am
K Dizzle says:
@ bob
yeah, you right. Givin away a consistent shooter like Sual to save capspace is what teams tryin to win do. A below average two guard is better than no two guard…
October 6th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
ticktock6 says:
@ K Dizzle Your argument fails because they still have the below average 2 guard they had in 2007-08. Mo Peterson’s stats as starter that year and Butler’s last year are virtually identical. Would you pay 2 virtually identical 2 guards? Why is the team wrong or cheap for not wanting to?
October 6th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
bob says:
Thank you, ticktock. I swear, listening to these people, it seems like the Hornets gave away an All Star for nothing. The Hornets of 07-08 had Mo Pete starting, and they were a better team than last year’s. This Hornets team has a FAR better bench than last year’s, and it also has Mo Pete starting. From an objective standpoint, it would be idiotic to claim that this current Hornets team is worse off than they were before.
October 6th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
NOEngineer says:
Love ya TickTock!
The bench appears to have been upgraded from pathetic to average. The first unit will probably decline a bit from 2007-2008 (when Peja was stroking and Chandler surprising), but be better than 2008-2009 (when Chandler and Peja were hampered). Rasual’s athletecism will be missed, but it is a minor change when you look at MoPete’s stats and professionalism. Julian Wright’s athleticism slightly exceeds that of Peja. Playoffs if CP3 and David West miss less than 10 games each. WCF if Julian Wright catches fire….