Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Week 3
Buy Low:
Al Jefferson will miss the next two games to tend to a family illness, but it’ll give him some time to rest, too. He’s shown glimpses of life and his steady uphill path to recovery should reach its peak by the beginning of December.
Andre Miller is starting alongside Steve Blake, but the chances for him taking over as the sole starting point guard are getting better.
David West has been pedestrian at best so far, but maybe a new coach will help his production. Chris Paul might also make special efforts to help out his reliable big man.
Amar’e Stoudemire is clearly struggling in many ways this season but his conditioning and lift off his legs will return before long. The Suns are running such a great offense and Stoudemire is so good that it’s almost certain he’ll pick things up in a big way.
J.R. Smith is back and off to a slow start. He’s not guaranteed a starting spot, but he could eventually play 30+ minutes on a consistent basis and should put up slightly better numbers than last season.
Gerald Wallace is co-leading the NBA in rebounding, along with Joakim Noah, at 12.3 per game, but his scoring, assists, blocks, threes and shooting percentages are all down from last season. The Bobcats are struggling but Crash will improve his numbers, especially with a feeble backcourt to compensate for.
Caron Butler is also experiencing the struggles Wallace is. Look for the return of Antawn Jamison to possibly help his numbers.
Jamison, Pau Gasol, Troy Murphy, Tony Parker, Devin Harris, Kevin Martin, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love and any other productive players who are injured should be considered buy-low candidates.
Sell High:
Elton Brand might be come as a surprise under this heading, but his name still means more than his actual value (or lack thereof) to some owners. Also, coach Eddie Jordan recently said there has been some discussion of shuffling the starting lineup (read: benching Brand) but that he doesn’t want to “touch that nerve right now.” Trade Brand before his wearisome lines render his name worthless.
Channing Frye is off to a great start but he’s bound to have his rough patches, especially against good teams like the Lakers last night. It’s his first season as a three-point shooting big man so don’t expect him to maintain top-35 value for much longer.
Trevor Ariza’s only weaknesses are his low shooting percentage and frequent turnovers, which were expected heading into this season. But with Tracy McGrady nearing his return, Ariza will be hard-pressed to maintain his production. He’ll still be valuable, especially when T-Mac is sidelined with his injuries, but this might be the time to deal him if you’re looking to improve a weak area on your roster.
Vince Carter will still be a strong fantasy start every week, but he could see some inconsistency once Rashard Lewis returns on Monday.
Ben Gordon is playing very well right now, but minutes and shots might be a bit more scant once Richard Hamilton returns.
Lamar Odom is tough to trade away, but his minutes, production and consistency will all take a hit once Gasol returns.
Larry Hughes has managed to be a top-25 player so far this season, but with Nate Robinson returning and Toney Douglas playing well, it’s prime time to swap Hughes for a more reliable player.
Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.
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November 13th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
will says:
Hey Doc, I really needed a shooting guard and am strong in rebounds, so I traded Kevin Love for Tmac. Was this an OK deal or did i completely get ripped off? I’m hoping that Tim Grover has done to Tmac what he did to Wade and Arenas, and that Tmac can get to maybe 16 5 5 a game. Is this reasonable or wishful thinking? I also don’t like Love that much because all he really gives me is rebounds, the second easiest stat to get.
November 13th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@will: Not a bad deal. I still don’t trust T-Mac to avoid unannounced strings of DNPs, so you should definitely consider swapping McGrady for another SG who gives you what you want, without the high injury risk, after he puts together a few solid games.
He’s a tough call this year. I’d recommend to avoid falling in love with him, but I could be wrong.
November 13th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
kevin says:
Doc should I trade arenas for bynum?
November 13th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
benny says:
how much do you think brendan haywood’s stats will go down once jamison comes back? can he still average 10 10 2 blocks ?
November 13th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
the truth says:
Doc, what do you think of KryptoNate? Will he ever get back to last season’s form? I’m thinking of dropping him for Kenyon Martin. I got Nate for 3s, stls and points, but I’m leading my league in those cats without him. Thanks in advance and mad love for the doc for dropping knowledge on us uninformed folks day in day out.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:52 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@kevin: If you are good with threes, assists and steals and want to improve your boards, blocks, FG% and turnovers, then yes.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:56 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@benny: I don’t think his value will take too much of a hit. Yes, I think 10/10/2 is definitely feasible for him.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:59 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@the truth: I don’t think Nate will be consistent this year, especially with the emergence of Danilo Gallinari and Toney Douglas, who will both take away touches and shots from him. If you think you’d benefit from his boards, steals and blocks, K-Mart is a solid option. Just be aware of his obvious health concerns.
Thanks for the kind words and thanks for reading! I think all you guys are pretty informed already. It’s always good to hear and learn from all of your thought processes and ideas.
November 14th, 2009 at 7:35 am
ds says:
hey doc
i read in an earlier post that you should sell high on brandon jennings…
im in a h2h 14 team league and have deron calderon and mo williams and ( bargnani and danilo )on my team and i have way too many assists and 3’s and was looking for a player to get me steals and blocks with decent fg ft %’s
what kind of value do you think i could get for him?
any player recommendations for who i shold try to pick up?
you think i could get josh smith??? probably not right but yea i don’t know what kind of trades to look for
like what’s equal value of a rookie tearing it up… cuz i don’t want to rip my self off by selling too low just cuz he’s a rook
thanks!
November 14th, 2009 at 10:14 am
pol says:
Hey Doc,
I’m currently in a 12-team 8 cat H2H league with this roster
Andre Miller
Courtney Lee
John Salmons
Chuck Hayes
Brook Lopez
Carlos Boozer
Kendrick Perkins
Anderson Varejao
David West
Andris Biedrins
Chris Duhon
Dwight Howard
Devin Harris
I tried to focus on big-ball with a dash of assists/steals while tanking 3pts and FT%
I’m not really happy with Duhon and Salmons at the moment because they’re killing my FG% and are severly underperforming from where I drafted them
I’m also wondering if Biedrins is worth keeping as his first couple of games were abysmal before he got injured
Just wondering if you had any input on the team for drops/pickups/trades?
November 14th, 2009 at 11:30 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@ds: You can target Smith in a package deal, but probably not in a one-for-one.
Kevin Garnett, Shane Battier, AK, Jeff Green, Lamar Odom and, if you want to reach, Marcus Camby are all options if you want a one-for-one deal.
Take a look at those owners to see if they’d benefit from swapping for Jennings’ stats.
I hope it goes well!
November 14th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
fiyaman says:
yeah Doc what about Boozer he’s up for sale in my league.. is he a good buy low guy
November 14th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@fiyaman: Definitely, though his stock has risen this past week. If you can get him for a cheap price, go for it.
November 14th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
fiyaman says:
how bout amare and marion for Caron and boozer?
November 14th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
Richard says:
Hey Doc, Should I trade Andre Miller for Aaron Brooks?
November 14th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
alex says:
hey doc, barbosa isn’t doing that great…should i drop him for dahntay jones?
November 14th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
alex says:
or maybe guys like corey brewer, nocioni, terrence williams, ty lawson, or will bynum? thanks
November 15th, 2009 at 12:56 am
Ron says:
Hey Doc,
Should I trade Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller for Devin Harris, Aaron Brooks and Paul Milsap?
November 15th, 2009 at 1:13 am
Duck says:
Someone in my 8 man H2H just dropped Michael Beasley.
Should I pick up him and drop one of my players not producing good stats, or am I okay with what I have?
I was considering dropping q-rich, ronnie brewer.
i also was looking to trade r.allen and/or ariza and/or odom.
what do you think i can get from this?
November 15th, 2009 at 1:43 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@pol: Salmons is already coming around little by little, but Duhon is definitely a candidate to trade or even swap out if there’s someone worthy enough.
I also think Varejao is borderline droppable since he’s lost his starting spot. (J.J. Hickson could be a decent replacement.)
Since productive big men are scarce in fantasy ball, they might be hard to find on waiver wires in 12-team leagues.
Biedrins should be better once he returns, but I wouldn’t count on the same numbers as last season. If you’re skeptical of him, wait until he returns and puts up a good line or two then trade him off.
David West is a good trade candidate right now, though it wouldn’t be a bad idea to wait until his stock rises a bit.
November 15th, 2009 at 1:46 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Richard: Brooks will be inconsistent, but his peaks will be higher than Miller’s.
The backcourt situation in Portland is a mystery, but I’m skeptical of Miller’s ability to put up great numbers this year.
If you can deal with ups and downs, go with Brooks.
November 15th, 2009 at 1:50 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@alex: Yeah, Barbosa’s a frustrating case this year. He appears to be affected by a bum wrist, which doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon.
Jones and Brewer seem good. Bynum could take a hit once Rip returns.
November 15th, 2009 at 1:54 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Duck: Beasley seems like a good pickup. Q-Rich seems like a better drop than Brewer.
Odom is a great sell-high candidate, with Gasol nearing a return. Someone like Boris Diaw would be a great target for an Odom deal.
Ariza’s got huge value right now and you can probably target top-25 players for him, while Allen’s value is low right now. You can still probably target guys like Anthony Randolph, J.R. Smith, Jose Calderon, Stephen Jackson and Luis Scola for him. It depends on what stats you’re looking for.
November 15th, 2009 at 2:53 am
fear of the truth says:
eyy doc, u think im reachin offerin my kaman,okafor,david west for his dirk nd bosh?
November 15th, 2009 at 5:30 am
where high ankle sprains happen says:
hey doc,
my teams stacked with boards and blocks and i need some assist. what do you think about me trading away aljeff for jkidd?
November 15th, 2009 at 8:14 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Ron: Not a bad deal, but you’re trading for more inconsistency, especially with Brooks and Millsap. If you’d benefit from the blocks and extra boards, it might be worthwhile.
Overall though, it’s tough to tell you not to do it. It’s basically Billups for Harris, which is near a wash, and Miller for Brooks and Millsap, which is hard to argue against.
November 15th, 2009 at 8:15 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@fear of the truth: Yes, definitely a reach, but if you can pull that off, more power to you.
November 15th, 2009 at 8:16 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@where high ankle sprains happen: Not bad, but you’d be selling low on Jefferson. Kidd’s going to give you around top-80 value, while Jefferson could soon give you top-30 value. If possible, I’d wait until next week or the week after to see if Jefferson improves and then deal him off for a better PG.
November 15th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Duck says:
@FD
Thanks for the advice.
What do you think of this trade?
Someone offered me,
Gerald Wallace + J Terry for Ariza and R. Allen.
Someone also offered,
Al Jefferson + David Lee for Ariza/Allen and maybe Odom.
November 15th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
WuMan says:
Hi Doc,
Who is better in 9Cat H2H, Courtney Lee or Chris Douglas-Roberts? What do you think the near future out-look for Marreese Speights?
Thanks.
November 15th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Duck: I like the Jefferson/Lee deal better for you.
November 15th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@WuMan: Tough call, since they’re fairly even.
Lee’s value comes mostly from his 2.2 steals per game and low turnovers, while CDR’s value comes from his high shooting percentages and scoring. CDR’s better all-around, but Lee helps a ton in the steals department.
If you haven’t heard yet, Speights is out until around January with a knee injury, so his near-term outlook isn’t good. (Elton Brand’s value, however, just saw a slight boost.)
November 16th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
Duck says:
@FD.
Thanks for all of your input, but I have one last question.
Is Jefferson/Lee worth Ariza/Allen/Odom?
Or should I just offer Ariza/Allen?
November 17th, 2009 at 11:55 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Duck: I think you can try to get away with offering just Ariza/Allen, though Jefferson’s owner might want Odom’s boards to make up for the load he’s losing.