Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Week 7
Buy Low:
Tony Parker, while slightly overrated for fantasy purposes, is more valuable than his current stats are conveying. His points, rebounds, assists, steals and turnovers have all taken a turn for the worse this season but unlike his rap career, all hope is not lost for his fantasy value.
Caron Butler has certainly been a disappointment so far this season, but his recent numbers seem to indicate that he’s close to recovering at least some of the value he’s hemorrhaged. In the month of December, he’s averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 three per game. He’s still struggling from the field but is continuing his cold-blooded ways at the line. Butler’s picking up steam and it’d be wise to nab him at a slightly discounted price now.
Antawn Jamison has had a rough week, failing to break the 16-point mark and grab double-digit rebounds since the first of the month. He remains a very valuable player at the SF/PF spots because of his mix of threes, boards, steals and low turnovers, and could be had at 80 cents on the dollar right now.
Devin Harris was supposed to be much better than this. Besides his steals (2.1 per game), all of his numbers are down this season compared to 2008-09. The groin injury that kept him sidelined for a long stretch in the beginning of the season seems to be fully behind Harris now and he should turn things around by the time 2010 rolls around.
David West is starting to pick things up but is still struggling with a case of inconsistency. He’s probably struggling to adjust to having a post presence like Emeka Okafor on board, but Chris Paul’s return helps his prospects for a turnaround. He might not meet his averages from last season, but he’s better than this.
Andrei Kirilenko, Tyrus Thomas, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin and any other productive fantasy players should be considered buy-low candidates.
Sell High:
Zach Randolph has put up two gaudy lines during the past seven days, averaging 28 points, 14.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2 steals in those games. He even hit a three on Tuesday. While his scoring and rebounding abilities are unquestionable, he remains limited in value and might not get any better than this.
Josh Howard had a very nice return Tuesday, going for 20 points, 6 boards and 3 steals. However, he’s going to be treated delicately for the near future, with reports indicating that he’ll be held out of Saturday’s game, the tail end of a back-to-back. Also, with the strong play of Jason Terry and the presence of Shawn Marion, Howard might be hard-pressed to play as many minutes as he’s accustomed to.
Ryan Gomes has been hot since Nov. 29, and the very successful return of Kevin Love hasn’t slowed him down a bit. However, history shows that Gomes is more likely to slow down than continue this hot streak, and the news that Love will return to the starting lineup surely puts a dent in his potential for long-term value.
Peja Stojakovic has rightfully earned back the starting job he lost before the season began and has been a bit of a surprise so far this year. During his past two games, Stojakovic has averaged 17.5 points and 4.5 threes. However, his history of fragile health, specifically with his balky back, seems to suggest that he should be dealt at his current peak.
Kevin Garnett was on a very nice hot streak until Thursday’s game. He’s pushed himself back into top-30 fantasy value but there’s too much weight in this balloon for the ride to continue at this altitude. Paul Pierce will play better than he has lately, which probably means a less-prominent role for KG in the Celtics’ offense. Tack on his still-worrisome health and the certainty of limited minutes down the stretch of the season and there are plenty of reasons to convince his owners to sell high on him sooner rather than later.
Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.
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December 11th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Coop says:
“Andrei Kirilenko, Tyrus Thomas, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin and any other productive fantasy players should be considered buy-low candidates.”
Hire a proof-reader for the love of God!
December 11th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
cesar says:
TP looks like a drunken in that pic hahaha
December 11th, 2009 at 9:19 pm
yao says:
who started this grammar checking nonsense on this site? seriously, who the fuck cares?
December 11th, 2009 at 11:58 pm
ProphetGK says:
Devin Harris gettin his two-step back…
December 12th, 2009 at 1:42 am
will says:
how far away is Jameer Nelson from coming back?
and do you think he’ll make an impact right away?
thanks
Will
December 12th, 2009 at 2:55 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Coop: That’s on me. It should be “…any other productive fantasy players who are injured…”
By the way – it’s “proofreader.”
December 12th, 2009 at 4:33 am
Jamal says:
Doc, what do you think about Rodney stuckey? Sell high or keep him?
December 12th, 2009 at 5:26 am
Kobe says:
Hey Doc,
Is Hibbert worth picking up? Think coach O’Brien will shake things up with Granger being out for a while?
December 12th, 2009 at 11:29 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@will: He’ll probably be back before 2010. Coach Van Gundy says Nelson will start as soon as he returns, and though he’ll have to work off some rust, yes, it looks like he’ll be usable very shortly after he comes back.
December 12th, 2009 at 11:32 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Jamal: He might see a slight decline in value when Rip Hamilton returns, but Stuckey’s worth holding.
December 12th, 2009 at 11:33 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Kobe: Yes and yes. I’m not sure Hibbert’s going to be consistent just yet, but he is worth stashing at least.
December 12th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
jillian says:
Hey Doc, should I drop Anthony Randolph for Hibbert? It doesn’t seem like Randolph’s gonna get any consistent playing time, especially over 20mpg when Biedrins and Turiaf come back. But Hibbert should get over 25 or 30 mpg now that Granger is out, right?
December 12th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
alby says:
who has the most value when they all come back: tmac, nelson, or lou williams?
December 12th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@jillian: Hibbert has a higher ceiling, yes, so I have absolutely no problem with that swap.
December 12th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@alby: Nelson, Williams, McGrady.
December 12th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Rob says:
Doc,
Should I give up Melo for VC and Noah? I need boards but am in 2nd place in scoring, largely behind Melo’s production. Also could use a PF and I could dump McGrady for the extra roster spot if I make the trade. What do you think?
December 12th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Rob: Not a bad deal. If your squad doesn’t have too much depth with this trade, I don’t have a problem with it. Giving up a top-10 player is always a risky move though, and ideally you’d be getting a top-30 player in return, but you could do a lot worse.
December 12th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
Kobe says:
Thanks Doc!
@jillian
I dropped Randolph for Hibbert as well, his inconsistent minutes really suck
December 12th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
the truth says:
doc, Dampier has been a defensive beast, and I’m thinking of dropping either KMart or Flynn for him, what would be the best move?
thanks again.
December 12th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Duck says:
Doc,
Thinking of dropping Gomes for either Hansbourgh, Conley, Dampier.
Best choice?
December 13th, 2009 at 1:58 am
Milkboy says:
Doc,
Nothing to ask, but just thanks for answering all our questions.
December 13th, 2009 at 2:18 am
BRoy says:
Hey Doc,
someone offered me T.Duncan and Ty Lawson for KG and Ridnour. What should I do about this trade?
December 13th, 2009 at 2:51 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@the truth: Flynn’s probably the better drop.
December 13th, 2009 at 2:54 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Duck: Conley, Dampier, Hansbrough, in that order.
December 13th, 2009 at 2:55 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Milkboy: My pleasure!
December 13th, 2009 at 2:56 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@BRoy: Interesting.
Duncan > KG
Ridnour > Lawson
You’d probably do well to decline it.
December 13th, 2009 at 11:53 am
Duck says:
Thanks for everything Doc!
December 13th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
BRoy says:
Sorry Doc, I have to throw you another one at ya
Someone offered me Jason Terry and Andres Bargnani for T-mac and Billups. What should I do?
December 13th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@BRoy: Very appealing deal. I’d lean toward yes, if your team can use the extra depth.
December 13th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
iverson3 says:
hello Doc
should I trade G wallace and billups for jamison and terry?
December 13th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Duck says:
Calderon is a FA in my league.
Should I drop Marion/Gallinari/Beasley/Conley for him?
December 13th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Duck: Maybe Conley.
December 13th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
Duck says:
Maybe Conley?
When should I decide?
Conley had a bad game today, but is Calderon worth the straight pick up?
December 13th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Duck says:
Sorry. Forgot to add this.
Who has more long term value?
December 14th, 2009 at 12:16 am
Duck says:
Nvm. Too late. He got picked up with a Will Bynum drop.
December 14th, 2009 at 4:10 am
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Duck: It’d be nice to see a report on just how long Calderon will be out. Don’t worry though. Calderon isn’t as great of a pickup as he probably seems.
December 14th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Gaben says:
Hey doc someone offered me vince carter for kevin garrnet. I am in need one scoring but kinda worried about the magic having too many players just like the celtics. should i hold on to KG?
December 14th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Gaben: With health concerns and minutes considered, VC might be the better player long-term. If you can swap out boards and blocks for points and threes, along with all the statistical differences involved, this might not be a bad idea. Base your decision on the stats you need and how this would fit with that.
December 14th, 2009 at 6:05 pm
iverson3 says:
Hey Doc,
should I trade G wallace and billups for Jamison and Jason Terry?
December 14th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@iverson3: Not unless you’re incredibly desperate for threes and can sustain your losses in other categories.
Billups > Terry
G-Wall > Jamison