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Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Feb 2, 2010 / 11:45 am

Daily Fantasy Diagnosis: 2.2

Deron WIlliams (photo. Christian Kozowyck)

Beast of the Night: Deron Williams returned from a personal leave of absence and put up 18 points, 7 rebounds, 15 assists, 2 steals, 4 turnovers and hit a three. He shot 47 percent (7-15) from the field and 100 percent (3-3) from the free throw line. January was a forgettable month for Williams, who should get things rolling again in February.

Noteworthy Lines:
Caron Butler – 6-15 FG (40%), 8-8 FT (100%), 20 Pts, 11 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 Stl, 6 TO; This was his best game in about two weeks. Butler remains a trade candidate, but wherever he ends up, his owners have to hope that he picks up the pace sooner than later.

Randy Foye – 0-3 FG (0%), 2-2 FT (100%), 2 Pts, 4 Ast, 2 TO; After showing big-time promise after having the starting job fall into his lap, Foye has struggled mightily in the past two weeks. He should turn things around soon, but until then he is a solid buy-low candidate and should be on most benches.

Kobe Bryant – 16-28 FG (57%), 8-13 FT (62%), 4 3ptm, 44 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Ast, 3 TO; He passed Jerry West as the Lakers’ all-time leading scorer. His free-throw shooting has been mediocre in recent games, which is probably the result of his ailing body.

Amar’e Stoudemire – 10-20 FG (50%), 5-8 FT (63%), 25 Pts, 12 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 4 TO; This was his second consecutive double-double after eight straight games without one. Stoudemire could be dealt to another squad soon, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll land on a team that would harm his fantasy value.

Spencer Hawes – 10-18 FG (56%), 2-2 FT (100%), 1 3ptm, 23 Pts, 7 Reb, 3 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 TO; Unfortunately, these games have been too rare for Hawes this season. He seems to have earned his starting gig back for now, but remains too inconsistent to start in most fantasy leagues. Sell high on him if you can.

Darren Collison – 7-18 FG (39%), 1-1 FT (100%), 1 3ptm, 16 Pts, 4 Reb, 14 Ast, 1 Stl, 4 TO; In his two games as a starter since CP3 went down with his knee injury, Collison is averaging 16.5 points, 5 rebounds and 16 assists. Expect some inconsistency down the line, but it’s clear that his fantasy value has skyrocketed, and deservedly so.

Kenyon Martin – 10-15 FG (67%), 4-8 FT (50%), 24 Pts, 12 Reb, 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 Blk, 2 TO; He’s turned the clock back a few seasons during the last several weeks and has rewarded his owners handsomely. However, with ‘Melo returning soon and with another injury almost a near certainty, it might be time to finally sell high on K-Mart.

Paul Millsap – 10-16 FG (63%), 5-6 FT (83%), 25 Pts, 9 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 4 Blk, 3 TO; He’s a kid playing in a candy store without the manager in it. But his binging could be over sooner than later, as Carlos Boozer seems likely to return in the near future. Sell high on Millsap as soon as possible.

Waiver Wire Appeal:
Tony Allen – 10 Pts, 6 Reb, 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 1 TO; That’s his second straight solid outing and Allen should be considered in deeper leagues.

Carlos Delfino – 16 Pts, 10 Reb, 4 Ast, 3 Stl, 4 TO; He’s still not owned in the majority of leagues, which is downright foolish. Make sure he’s not sitting on your waiver wire.

Udonis Haslem – 12 Pts, 10 Reb, 1 TO; He’s fairly steady and should be considered in deeper leagues.

Marcus Thornton – 25 Pts, 5 3ptm, 4 Reb, 4 Ast, 1 Stl, 3 TO; He’s been solid for a while now, and the absence of CP3 only helps things.

Omri Casspi – 14 Pts, 4 Reb, 1 Ast, 2 TO; He pieces together some solid games every so often, but will see another decline once Tyreke Evans returns.

Nicolas Batum – 15 Pts, 1 3ptm, 9 Reb, 1 Blk, 1 TO; He’s versatile and has performed admirably since returning from an injury.

Rudy Fernandez – 11 Pts, 2 3ptm, 4 Reb, 5 Ast, 3 Stl, 2 TO; He could take a hit once Brandon Roy returns, but for now, Rudy is playing some good ball.

Injuries:
Charlie Villanueva (back): eyeing a return tonight

Jeff Foster (back): looks likely to have season-ending surgery soon

Chris Kaman (ankle): questionable tonight

Jermaine O’Neal (back): day-to-day

Devin Harris (wrist): game-time decision

Hedo Turkoglu (eye): unlikely tonight

For Tonight:
Kevin Durant continues his scoring run against the Hawks.

Expect some big stats from the guards as the Warriors visit the Rockets.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

Follow Jason on Twitter at @fbasketballblog.

Follow Dime on Twitter at @DIMEMag.

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  • Rieko

    Hey Doc,

    I dropped Randy Foye and picked up Darren Collison. Do you see that as a bad move?

  • Rieko

    Hey Doc,

    I dropped Randy Foye and picked up Darren Collison. Do you see that as a bad move? I was wondering whether I should scoop up Delfino also.

    My Team

    P.G’s: D Will, B Davis, Kirk Hinrich,and Collison(for now)
    S.G’s: Kevin Martin,Eric Gordon,
    S.F’s: Mike Miller, Corey Brewer
    P.F’s and C’s: Al Jefferson, Emeka Okeafor, and Mehmet Okur.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Rieko: Not at all. Very good move.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Rieko: The only dude I can really recommend swapping out for Delfino is Brewer, who is still a bit inconsistent.

  • AJ

    Doc, scooped up Darren Collison but a Chris Paul owner who is decimated in the assists category is offering me JR Smith. Should I make the trade, wait a little to see Paul’s status (might be 2mths), ride out Collison to gain some ground or ask for more. We are GGFFCUU yahoo league.

    My team:
    Gs: Calderon, Westbrook, Mo Williams, Curry, & Collison
    G/F: Pierce, Brandon Rush & Granger
    F/C: Okafor & Noah
    C: Marc Gasol & Perkins

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @AJ: Hold onto Collison, unless we find out tomorrow that Paul will return sooner than expected. Asking for more would be a decent move, too.

  • http://www.conradburry.com Conrad

    8-cat league: both Mike Miller & M Thornton are available…i have LouWill & Foye to drop from my team. Need FG% + stl; make a switch? Thanks!

  • dagwaller

    Two things. In one of my leagues, Martell Webster is something like the 30th ranked player. I know very well that this has to do with his ridiculous 3 point shooting. However, I also know that he is an incomplete player whose FG percentage as a whole and lack of production in other areas hurts me.

    The question, then, is: how do you feel about player rankings when evaluating trades and talent? I would drop Webster for Goran Dragic, but I feel that his high rating could get me an even better player in a trade. Channing Frye is another good example of this. It blows my mind that people would drop someone ranked in the teens(!) in the ratings.

    Also, what do you think of this deal? Brandon Jennings and Bogut for Danny Granger and Al Horford. Horford has been extremely average as of late, and Danny Granger has also been very disappointing. Bogut has been a beast, but BJ’s percentages are fairly atrocious.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Conrad: I’d lean toward swapping both for both.

  • maddawg

    hey doc,

    who do u think is gonna get more burn in the long run.. martell webster or nic batum? thanks

  • http://www.conradburry.com Conrad

    you don’t think Lou Will is worth stashing if he gets traded to another team?

    i think I will switch out Foye for Mike Miller. Foye is on a downturn and Mike is taking away touches from him. Plus, Mike has a nice near-50 FG% and decent steals to go along. I’m 2nd in my league in 3s (i have Danilo & Frye :D ), so I think Thornton wouldn’t help me as much as Mike would overall, and I also don’t see Foye being as big a part of the offense as he was when Mike was out.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @dagwaller: Rankings are a great way to quickly assess a player’s fantasy value, but they’re not the best. As you mentioned, rankings can be fool’s gold if they’re based on fleeting strong percentages or low turnovers for certain players. Some owners are heavily reliant on rankings, and they can sometimes be fooled by high rankings. More times than not, rankings are a fairly accurate way of evaluating a player, but no one should stop there.

    I like the Granger/Horford side of that deal, though I dislike trading for Granger, given his health concerns.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @maddawg: They’ll get almost equal playing time. Also, remember Travis Outlaw? He’ll be back in March and will make things even more dicey for them.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Conrad: Yeah, he could be, but he’s been so mediocre lately that it’s tough to deny that Miller or Thornton wouldn’t be better players to own.

  • kevin

    Should I drop jameer nelson, wilson chandler, or john salmons for marcuz thornton?

  • alex

    whos better,marcus thornton or corey brewer

  • nola

    barg for maggette?

  • nola

    also, al jeff and jennings for marcus thornton and melo

    obviously i really need a center. the only person i have that’s good for center is TD. next best is perkins and shaq :(

  • nola

    also, al jeff and jennings for marcus thornton and melo

    obviously i really need a center. the only person i have that’s good for center is TD. next best is perkins and shaq :(

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @kevin: Probably Salmons.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @alex: Thornton’s more steady, but Brewer’s peaks are higher. I’d go with Thornton.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @nola: I’d rather have Maggette right now, Bargnani for the long-run.

    If you’re looking to trade ‘Melo and Thornton for Jefferson and Jennings, try to get someone a bit better than Jennings.

  • AJ

    Doc AJ again,

    It looks like Pierce might be out. I might need to replace his shooting, scoring and 3ptm for a while. An owner sent me an offer of JR Smith for Darren Collison, which you recommended holding off on. I agree but that was before the Pierce injury. I want to counter with Brandon Rush/Calderon for JR Smith/Channing Frye (with the hopes that they trade Amare Stoudamire)?

    Which side of the trade do you like?

  • Duck

    Hey Doc.
    How was your trip?

    Also, with Pierce out, do you think Tony Allen should be a pickup? Also, will Ray Allen’s value go up?

    Also, I picked up Foye, but have some possible choices in FA.
    Anyone you think I should switch with?

    Rush/Fernandez/Corey Brewer/Batum/Affalo/Dragic.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @AJ: Yeah, things don’t look good for Pierce, though we’ll find out for sure tomorrow.

    I like the Smith/Frye side of that deal by a bit, though you’re definitely taking on a lot of inconsistency there.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Duck: The trip was great, thanks!

    Yes, Allen should be picked up, but we won’t know Pierce’s status for sure until tomorrow it seems.

    Ray Allen is at the center of trade rumors, and if Pierce is out for a while, his chances of being traded rise. So, if he stays with the C’s, yes, his value gets bumped up a bit, but if he gets dealt it really depends on where he lands.

    I think you should stick with Foye, though Brewer and Fernandez are enticing options right now.

  • Duck

    That’s great to hear.

    Thanks for replying so quickly.

    Hm okay. So should I be sticking with Foye and not picking up Tony Allen? Or should I drop TYoung/JRich for him? (JRich hasn’t been doing so hot)

    Also, who should I start tomorrow?

    TPark (will he be playing)
    MMiller
    DGallinari
    RFelton
    RAllen
    JRich
    TYoung
    RFoye

    Top 5 players?

  • De Jesus

    Hey Doc,

    This is my first year doing NBA fantasy and I stumbled upon your site and found it very helpful. I was wondering if you could rate my team and give me any tips on moves I should make.

    I am sitting in 4th place in a Head to Head league.

    My team is: J Kidd, R. Allen, A. Miller, Rip Hamilton, G. Wallace, Landry, Dirk, Beasley, M. Gasol, Shaq, Collison, Lou Williams, Mo Williams (Inj),and T-Mac.

    Notable FA’s: Dunleavy, Rudy Fernandez, Brad Miller

    I’ve been holding on the T-Mac since about week 3, hoping that my gamble would pay off.

  • Nick

    Hey Doc,

    Good to have you back.

    The deal hasn’t let me down in these two days so far (already seeing ground being made up) with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green in for Z Randolph and Haywood.

    That being said, I need some assists (I see a lot of ground I could make up with a good solid assists guy), and though I asked something similar yesterday, can you tell me which of these guys would fit in my lineup best [assists, points, blocks are priorities, although blocks wouldn’t probably be exchanged]

    Scola for:

    Rip Hamilton; Manu Ginobili; Jonny Flynn (maybe); JR Smith; Hedo Turkoglu; Ben Gordon; Ray Allen

    I need long term to fit in to this lineup (I’m way ahead in rebounds):
    Okafor, Okur, Aldridge, Bosh, Scola, J. Green, Durant, B. Davis, D. Williams, E. Gordon. 9 out of 10 of those are pretty much must starts to hold my team together.

    FYI 10 team roto, 10 starters each week, salaries and money limits on the deals [all players I showed you fit the limit… Hamilton and Ginobili are only possible keepers].

    Thank you for reading this, damn!

    Nick

  • Duck

    Also Doc, as an attachment to what I said earlier, does Belinelli have better value than any of those players?

  • the lurker

    yo doc!

    i need a source for steals and blocks and i’m hoping i can get them for the price of one. jared jeffries and shane battier are on the wire. what do you think?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Duck: Well, it now seems that Pierce’s foot is better than reported, so Allen’s appeal plummets a bit.

    Play Miller, Allen, Gallo, Felton and Richardson.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Duck: His value depends on when Turkoglu returns, so don’t expect too much from him.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @De Jesus: Thanks for the comment! It’s good to have you on board.

    You could probably use some help up front. Look to deal some of your guards for a center, especially since you have Williams. T-Mac has been a fruitless venture for many owners so far, and right now there’s no reason to expect that to change. Dunleavy and Fernandez deserve a look right now, and if you’re getting impatient with McGrady, it might be smart to swap him out for either one of them. But if you don’t need immediate help, you can surely hold onto him for a bit longer.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Nick: It’s great to be back!

    I like Manu best of those players, while Hamilton and Allen are both intriguing. I wouldn’t hesitate to much to trade Scola for Ginobili if you can.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @the lurker: Battier’s probably the better long-term bet, though he’s a bit banged up right now.