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Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Feb 17, 2010 / 10:00 am

Fantasy Analysis: Butler to Dallas, Camby to Portland

Caron Butler (photo. Douglas Sonders)

The big news over the weekend wasn’t about the lackluster slam dunk contest, the competitive All-Star game or the Shakira/Alicia Keys halftime show; it was about the huge deal between the Dallas Mavericks and the Washington Wizards. Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson were sent to Dallas in exchange for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross and James Singleton. Let’s breakdown the fantasy ramifications.

Butler is the biggest piece in the deal, but his owners should probably be torn about his potential to thrive in Dallas. He was finally getting things rolling for the Wizards, putting up two big lines before the break, but with Dirk Nowitzki leading the way on offense and Jason Terry always a threat to be a major spark off the bench, it seems that Butler is playing second, or even third fiddle yet again. Playing alongside a distributor like Jason Kidd could help though. Expect something around 17 points, 1 three, 6 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game, which isn’t shabby but far from spectacular.

Haywood, who was the unquestioned anchor at the center spot in Washington, now finds himself with a potential battle for minutes in Dallas. In the short-term, with Erick Dampier expected to miss some time after surgery on his dislocated finger, Haywood should have solid value. But once Dampier returns, expect Haywood’s numbers to eventually dip back to 2004-05 levels, when he averaged 9.4 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, which is still usable in most leagues, but definitely a step back from his strong first half. Sell high on him before the month is up.

Shawn Marion‘s mediocre value is mostly unchanged, though his dismal offensive production takes another hit with this deal.

Terry will come off the bench behind Butler, but his numbers shouldn’t change much at all.

Howard is definitely an intriguing player now. He was struggling mightily in Dallas but if Antawn Jamison gets dealt before the deadline, Howard could, by default, end up being one of the leaders of a depleted Wizards squad. If he can stay healthy, expect numbers in the neighborhood of 17.5 points, 1 three, 6.5 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal per game. An improvement is far from guaranteed from the touch-and-go swingman, but if you can buy low on him, take the gamble.

Gooden will split time backing up the PF and C positions, but if Jamison gets traded, he could end up with a decent load of minutes and decent production for fantasy teams.

Andray Blatche could be the big winner in this deal. He’ll likely start at center and will also benefit from a Jamison deal. He’s shown what he can do for a short-handed Wizards squad. Pick him up or buy low on him if you can.

Mike Miller should also see an uptick in value. He was already set for a big second half, and this deal combined with the seemingly certain departure of Jamison cements that.

Not to be outdone, the Blazers added much-needed strength to their frontcourt by trading for Marcus Camby on Tuesday. The Clippers received Travis Outlaw, Steve Blake and $1.5 million in return.

Camby’s owners might be tempted to get very superstitious but they shouldn’t worry too much. Yes, seeing Mr. Glass heading to a team that saw its two starting centers go down with season-ending knee injuries this season in the span of 17 days is like seeing Miley Cyrus star in movies about unkind girls and an autonomous car, but if you own Camby, you aren’t exactly banking on his health. He should get just as many minutes as he did in Los Angeles, and could grab more boards, since LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t a rebound-monger like Chris Kaman is. Camby should roll right along in Portland.

Juwan Howard‘s fleeting fantasy value is now a mist. Start looking for other options if you’ve been relying on him.

Aldridge could see his rebounds dip back to around 7.5 per game, but other than that he shouldn’t be affected much, since Camby isn’t high maintenance on offense.

Martell Webster and Nicolas Batum can breathe a bit easier with Outlaw gone. They’ll continue to cut into each other’s minutes, but will remain ownable in most leagues.

Jerryd Bayless might be the biggest winner in Portland. With Blake gone and Brandon Roy set to miss more time (and maybe the rest of the regular season), Bayless should find himself with plenty of minutes. Even with a fully healthy backcourt, Bayless will see more action than he did for most of the first half of the season. Pick him up immediately if he’s still available in your league.

Blake’s value remains mostly unchanged, and his owners just have to hope that Baron Davis goes down with an injury.

Outlaw finds himself on yet another team with a crowded SF spot, as he’ll be competing with Rasual Butler and Al Thornton for minutes, limiting all of their values.

Craig Smith and DeAndre Jordan will likely split minutes at the PF spot, but Jordan’s superior rebounding and blocking makes him the more appealing player to own.

Kaman’s value seems to benefit, but he’ll have to shoulder a bigger load on defense, which could mean more blocks along with more fouls. He could grab another board or two per game, but overall, this deal shouldn’t affect his value much.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • http://www.dimemag.com Aron Phillips

    Looks like Gooden will never play a game in Washington. Story coming soon.