Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Sep 16, 2010 / 11:00 am

Top 10 Fantasy Shooting Guards in 2010-11

Kobe Bryant

Kobe Bryant

We’re resuming our look at the projected top 10 fantasy players at each position. Yesterday we went through the top 10 fantasy point guards. Today we’ll look at the top 10 fantasy shooting guards. Judging from yesterday’s comments, our readers aren’t afraid to speak up, which is peachy keen. The more varied the perspectives, the better the discussion, so keep the reactions coming. Remember that these rankings are based on a nine-category scoring system.

1. Kobe Bryant: He’s about to embark on the sad decline that all players must eventually face, but don’t let that dampen your fantasy crush on No. 24 too much yet. The fact of the matter is that the man is still a walking 25/5/5, and after a summer filled with rest, recovery and plenty of motivation (i.e., Shaq in Celtic green and the trio in South Beach), Bryant should be on his way to one of his last great hurrahs.

2. Dwyane Wade: Despite the much-improved help he has in Miami, Wade remains a solid all-around stud. It’s easy to conceive of a season that sees his scoring, rebounding and assists dip a bit, but that also sees his field-goal percentage break the 50 percent mark for the first time in his career, and his turnovers dip below 3.0 for the first time since his rookie season.

3. Joe Johnson: Mr. Predictable is back in ATL, where his seasonal averages have been uncannily steady. There’s a small cloud of concern that he’ll suffer the typical post-contract slump, but Johnson doesn’t have any seriously flawed statistical categories, and even if he experiences a slight dip in production, it’s hard to imagine anything lower than 20/4/4 along with 1.5+ threes as his statistical floor.

4. Brandon Roy: He’s very similar to Johnson, but his shaky health continues to hamper Roy from being a true, reliable fantasy star. It also doesn’t help that his scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and shooting percentages all took a small step back last season. Nevertheless, his great all-around value can’t be denied. Just have a vomit bag at hand if you choose to draft him.

5. Monta Ellis: Last season’s success was a bit of a surprise from Ellis, given his newfound competition in Stephen Curry. While his 3.8 turnovers a game and 18 DNPs certainly weighed down his fantasy appeal, Ellis’s solid overall numbers make him a good, albeit risky, fit here. Like Curry, Ellis should benefit from being on a Warriors squad that has lost a handful of its offensive weapons from 2009-10.

6. Stephen Jackson: Word is S-Jax is looking leaner, and his presence at the Bobcats’ voluntary practice sessions for its summer-league team is a great sign for his priorities heading into this season. His weaknesses are his field-goal percentage and turnovers, but that’s about all that keeps him from being a couple spots higher on this list.

7. Tyreke Evans: I can hear the haters now. Bear in mind that Evans only hit 0.5 threes per game last season, which limits his fantasy value. Sure, his work on his jumpshot this offseason might pay off, but like Derrick Rose, it’s hard to imagine Evans making significantly more threes in his second season. Add to this the additions of DeMarcus Cousins and Samuel Dalembert, along with a roster that has similarly maturing prospects like Omri Casspi and Donte Greene, not to mention a healthier Francisco Garcia, and it’s easy to see that Evans’ ceiling might be lower than many think.

8. Manu Ginobili: He’s an animal when playing enough minutes, but that only happens when Tony Parker gets hurt. Make no mistake – Ginobili will have his shining streaks this season, but he’s a talented player whose fantasy appeal is notoriously limited by his paltry minutes. This season, he’ll have to contend with a blossoming George Hill for minutes as well.

9. Jason Richardson: J-Rich shot a career-low 12.6 shots per game last season, but with Amar’e Stoudemire out of Phoenix, he’ll likely see an uptick in that number and, consequently, the number of points he scores and the number of threes he hits.

10. Kevin Martin: Though his rebounds and assists aren’t too impressive, Martin already scores in bunches, hits a good load of threes and is especially helpful at the free-throw line. Yao Ming’s presence and Trevor Ariza’s departure should open the door for K-Mart a bit wider than it was last season. Add to this his declaration that he’s ready to “take off” for the Rockets this season and there’s plenty to like about Martin in 2010-11.

On the cusp: Marcus Thornton, O.J. Mayo, Jamal Crawford, Gilbert Arenas, Eric Gordon

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • JA

    I don’t like SJax so high. He is the type of player that forces you to either punt a category (low fg% and a volume shooter), or draft your team completely around him to compensate.

    I also like Martin a couple of spots higher – elite FTs (% and volume) is hard to find.

  • billyea56

    If E Turner gets the minutes, he will be in the top 10 here. Hes all around game will make him a triple double threat at some point in his career….but for this year I think he will just be a solid allaround player and good fantasy pick.

  • Mark

    If Thornton make the ‘on the cusp’ list then Ray Allen and John Salmons need to be on there aswell!!

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @JA: I got no problem with your perspective. I’m probably one of the few that thinks Jackson could actually build on his stellar start to his Bobcats career in 2009-10, especially since Raymond Felton isn’t around. (Jackson is somewhat of a point guard, and that could be huge for his value.) Also, I think he goes just low enough so that he won’t be so detrimental to your team, but that depends on how you draft. I’m digging K-Mart, but I still don’t trust his health.

    Also, given your take on S-Jax, I trust that you won’t hate me if I don’t think Dwight Howard is a first-rounder?

  • Jah

    Doc,

    I don’t agree with Gilly da’ Kid on the cusp. They’ll give him the green light to put up monster numbers until the Wizards can trade him.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @billyea56: He certainly has his appeal. I’m just not too high on how he’ll mesh with Andre Iguodala.

  • Ian

    doc
    you are right howard isnt a first rounder i dont want him near my team in any of the first two rounds.

    now jackson is too high imo and kobe is 2 wade is 1 then again thats just me.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Jah: Thornton’s flying under the radar. Allen’s got a lower ceiling than the guys on the cusp. Salmons is playing alongside Corey Maggette on a deeper Bucks’ squad, which doesn’t bode well for his potential.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    (Sorry, that previous reply was to @Mark)

    @Jah: Not sure the Wizards will have an easy time trading him and his fat contract. Also, Wall will probably get the brighter green light, and Arenas could have some trouble adjusting to being a SG.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Ian: Glad to hear you’re on board with my Howardphobia. I don’t have a big problem with you or anyone else who has that take.

  • JA

    @Doc – in roto, unless you are sure to land some FT heavyweights in the following rounds, then I wouldn’t take Dwight as a 1st rounder. In H-2-H, he is definitely a 1st rounder.

  • Alex “robocop” Murphy

    I know they are both old but I still like Ray Allen and Vince Carter. I also like the potential of Anthony Morrow and John Salmons.

    This is how I see it. Ray Allen might be at the cusp of top ten based on percentages and 3′s. (He’s still on pace to break Reggie Miller’s numbers for most threes and I’m sure he’s gunning for it).

    Vince Carter last year was a little bit of a fluke. He know’s his role now and won’t back down from letting Reddick steal his minutes. I still think he can be the 20/5/5 player Orlando needs instead of having Jameer Nelson take the clutch shots.

    I like Anthony Morrow (who might see be starting once Avery figures out who he likes Outlaw, T-Will, or Morrow). He was tops in the league with 3pters and might win you that category in roto leagues as your token 3pt shooter (sorry Rashard Lewis you suck).

    John Salmons is another guy who can do the 20/5/5 if healthy. I’m sure Michael Redd is not coming back. And if he is injury free, Michael Redd is still going to be traded.

  • Nizzio

    Monta Ellis is a statistic beast! He averaged 25 pts, 7 assists and 2.5 steals! he should be in the top 3.

  • SJ

    What do you think of this mock draft team (pick 7 of 14 teams):

    1. Stephen Curry (GS – PG)
    2. Joe Johnson (Atl – SG,SF)
    3. Tyreke Evans (Sac – PG,SG)
    4. Jason Richardson (Pho – SG,SF)
    5. Paul Millsap (Uta – PF)
    6. Blake Griffin (LAC – PF)
    7. Roy Hibbert (Ind – C)
    8. Lamar Odom (LAL – SF,PF)
    9. DeMarcus Cousins (Sac – PF,C)
    10. Tiago Splitter (SA – SF,PF)
    11. Richard Jefferson (SA – SF)
    12. DeJuan Blair (SA – PF,C)
    13. Jeremy Lin (GS – PG,SG)

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @SJ: You got some Golden State, San Antonio and Sacramento love going on there. I like the order/pick positions of your players. It seems like everyone went about where they should. Your squad has strong guards, but you’re probably banking on some unproven big men to carry your rebounding/blocks. It’s not a terrible thing — it could be fun, actually. Good all-around strength, but besides maybe threes, not sure there are specialty categories. If Griffin, Hibbert, Cousins and Splitter blossom, you’re good to go.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Nizzio: Beast? Yes. Top three? Not until he can prove he can stay healthy and take care of the ball.

  • imungloloupw

    if parker goes down, manu will be top 5 (maybe even top 3) for sure. He went banananas last year and was the only reason my team got into the finals despite having a multitude of injuries. crazy numbers fosho.

  • SJ

    Splitter was probably the toughest pick… it’s hard to guess how much play he’ll get, but I know SA will want to rest Duncan as much as possible. I think Jefferson will fit in better and play a more offensive role this season, too. Lin was just a gamble.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @imungloloupw: No doubt. He’s an animal when TP’s hurt.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @SJ: True. Round 11-12 is probably more prudent, but with all the buzz around him, owners might have to jump earlier on him than they’d like if they really want him. I agree that RJ will be better this season. Lin will have his good streaks.

  • hooper5013

    Derrick Rose is LEAPS and BOUNDS better at shooting than Tyreke Evans lol.

    Imagine how dope Magic Johnson would have been had he had a jumpshot lol

  • http://FantasyBasketballDaily.com Tippy

    Still showing O.J. Mayo (and Derrick Rose) no love I see, haha. I’m also starting to get the feeling that Eric Gordon is going to be a big surpise this season. Enjoying the fantasy stuff, good work.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Tippy: You know it. I’m trying my best to be the Skip Bayless of fantasy basketball. Thanks for stopping by, and you keep up the stellar work, too.

  • S.A.C

    @ Fantasy Doctor

    How do you have Kobe in front of Dwayne Wade, when Wade shoots a much higher percentage than Bryant (it’s funny how you mentioned Wade’s shooting percentage and not Kobe’s at 45%), averaged practiclaly the same points, he gets more steals, blocks and assist than Kobe. I’m just curious?

    And don’t tell me it’s from a decline in statistics with his new Amigos, cause we don’t really know that yet.

    Dwayne Wade average 4.8 Rebounds last year. Isn’t that practically the 5 you predicted for Kobe this season (25, 5, 5). Wade stats are just better and you just love Kobe. That’s all.

    And what about the decline in Kobe’s game that you so aptly mentioned? He could be worse (even if he averages the same, his shooting % will probably decline even more).

  • “Tha Boddy” Arenas Answers

    Gilbert Arenas is more dangerous than players 3-10 he shouldn’t be on the cusp and Ty Evans is a damn point guard!!!

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @S.A.C: To be honest, I’m actually not a Kobe fan, to put it lightly. And we don’t know for sure that Wade’s stats will decline — but we don’t know for sure that they’ll remain the same, either. I have a hard time seeing Wade’s rebounding and assists staying afloat with Bosh and James around to handle more of those duties. Shooting percentages are difficult to predict, but I think you’re underestimating Kobe’s ability to adapt his game. That said, I see a lot of people ranking Wade ahead of Kobe, so I have no problem if you think the same.

  • http://www.hypebball.com Sam Raphael Chadwick

    Fantasy Doc – What sites are best for fantasy basketball I live in England but would love to join somewhere any ideas?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Sam Raphael Chadwick: Take a look at Yahoo, ESPN or CBS — those are the most popular fantasy basketball sites.

  • S.A.C

    @ Fantasy Doctor

    Fair enough, on your answer!

    Thanks for the response

  • S.A.C

    @ Fantasy Doctor.

    PS: I should of put a LOL after my comment about you being a Kobe fan earlier. I really wasn’t taking it that seriously. I was just making some points. Lol.

    Thx

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @S.A.C: No worries. I just appreciate the good back-and-forth. Bottom line: I’m excited to see how things shake out with a lot of these studs. This NBA season is going to be borderline bonkers, in real terms and in fantasy terms.

  • JD

    I thought Evans was supposed to be a PG??

  • ay yo..

    I think Gilbert Arenas should definitely be in the top 10, specially from what’s been heard about him during this offseason.

    I’m not really a fan of Reke in the top 10, unless he works on the 3 ball. High TO’s , low 3′s & average % ‘s .. a little overrated.

    Morrow is borderline top 10, because of his %’s .. I’m not sure how his rebounding % ‘s will be, since NJ is a solid rebounding team.

    OJ Mayo is definitely top ten. Solid all-around stats, and he never misses games..

  • BUFFALO BRAVE

    Fantasyshark.net

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