Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Oct 4, 2010 / 10:30 am

NBA Fantasy Risk vs. Reward: Oden, Yao, Amar’e, Bogut & Blake Griffin

Greg Oden

Greg Oden

So far we’ve looked at the projected top 10 fantasy point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards and centers. Now it’s time to take it one step further by weighing the risk vs. reward for five big names during the 2010-11 season. Share your reactions below, and remember that this is based on a nine-category perspective.

Greg Oden
Risk: Slowly returns and works his way to a monster month before his knee eats itself and ends yet another flirting harlot of a season.
Reward: You draft him in the 10th round, bear with a gradual return to the court and reap the benefits of an Oden peaking at 12/10 and 2.5 blocks per game just in time for your league’s playoff period – and this time he keeps his photos to himself.
Verdict: Risk

Yao Ming
Risk: Hits the ground running, plays a steady 25 minutes a game and puts up 12/7 and 2+ blocks for a couple months before his feet disintegrate along with his NBA career.
Reward: You take him in the eighth round and he ends up working his way back up to 30 minutes a night, averages 18/9 and 2.5 blocks by fantasy playoff periods, and all comparisons with Bill Walton disappear – until he retires and becomes a color commentator for ABC.
Verdict: Risk

Amar’e Stoudemire
Risk: He struggles mightily without Steve Nash around to drop him easy passes and lobs in the paint, shoots a career-low percentage from the field, turns the ball over more than three times a night, feels a growing soreness in his knee and continues to be a lackluster rebounder/shot-blocker. Oh, and he finds out he’s not Jewish after all.
Reward: You pick STAT at No. 12 overall and he thrives in coach Mike D’Antoni‘s familiar system, goes neuralizes the city MIB-style and erases all memory of its unrequited love for a malevolent king this past summer and finally shows what he can do as the unquestioned leader of his own team to the tune of 28/9.5 and 1.5+ blocks per game.
Verdict: Reward

Andrew Bogut
Risk: After suffering the arm version of Shaun Livingston‘s injury last season, Bogut takes a similarly long time to fully recover and accumulates chunks of DNPs throughout the season and is limited to practicing self-high-fives to end the season.
Reward: You draft him in the third round, make a photo of his injury your team’s icon to strike fear into opponents, and though Bogut misses the first month of the season, he ramps up his production right before the All-Star break and eventually helps your squad with 14/9 and 2+ blocks per game during your playoff run.
Verdict: Risk

Blake Griffin
Risk: He retains his health but has a difficult time finding any kind of consistency, loses his shot at winning the Rookie of the Year award, but becomes the first player to oust Tim Duncan with the most boring game face in the NBA.
Reward: You spend a seventh-round pick on Griffin, he ends up being just as good as advertised, averages 19/9 and becomes the first player to oust Tim Duncan with the most boring game face in the NBA.
Verdict: Reward

What do you think? Who else should be on this list?

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • Jo Dezzy

    Arenas – leg injuries already? isn’t it still training camp
    T-MAC – can his body still do what his mind wants it to?
    Bynum – will he ever play a full season with those bad knees?
    Hansbrough – will he ever be the energy player we saw at Duke?
    Josh Howard – will he return from a bad knee and not need his “chronic” pain relief?
    Pryzbilla – Something about blazers and knee injuries. how long till he’s the best, backup center in the league?

  • Dr Drey

    Afew flaws with yours Jo, Bynum we know wont play a full season, Hansbrough played for NC, not duke, and Pryzbilla is the 3rd string Centre, With Camby and Oden being infront of him…

    Good article Fantasy Doc, look forward to more info (sooner rather then later please)

  • JC

    Przybilla is not 3rd string. Camby will be played as a PF more than anything

  • icey

    no way b.griffin will slip to 8th round pick in normal 10 player fantasy leagues..

  • Stunnaboy09

    19/9 is a bit generous for Blake Griffin considering he has Boom Dizzle, Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman starting with him as well…

  • Duck

    Hey Doc,
    My league will be having its draft in a couple weeks and so I was wondering if your mock draft could be based on a 10 team H2H points league?

    If not, when do you think this article will be up? I’m quite excited.

  • raffi

    bynum should prob be on the list

  • Dr Drey

    so you guys think camby will be there infront of aldridge… so which of those is the best backup PF in the league?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Duck: I’ll try to get the mock draft up soon. It’ll be H2H, nine cats, but I will probably go for a 12-team league, since that’s the standard.