Fantasy Doctor, Featured Gallery, NBA / Oct 15, 2010 / 12:00 pm

Top 5 Biggest Fantasy Basketball Busts in 2010-11

Andre Iguodala (photo. Kelly Turso)

Andre Iguodala (photo. Kelly Turso)

It’s time to get negative. We all enjoy a healthy discussion about our favorite fantasy basketball sleepers, but it’s equally important to talk about the biggest busts in 2010-11. For purposes of this post, busts will be loosely defined as players who will most underwhelm their owners based on expectations and projected draft positions. In no particular order, here are five players who will be fantasy busts this season.

1. Andre Iguodala
He’s starting at shooting guard, a position that has yielded mixed results for him in the past, and the Sixers are featuring a young, promising point guard in Jrue Holiday, a big man on the comeback trail in Elton Brand, and a versatile rookie in Evan Turner. Top off this bitter mix with coach Doug Collins reining in Iguodala’s shots from beyond the arc and calling him to be a catalyst on offense and a stopper on defense, and it’s quickly apparent that there’s a lot working against AI9 this season. He’ll be drafted in the top 25 in many drafts, but he’s at risk to finish the season outside of the top 40.

2. Mo Williams
Besides having his heart broken by LeBron James, Williams strained his groin during the offseason, which will render him a bit rusty at the outset of the year. Another cause for concern for Williams’ fantasy value this season is the presence of Ramon Sessions, who is capable of putting up impressive lines when given enough minutes. Will Williams be a more important fixture in the Cavs’ offense this season compared to last season? Yep. But with James absent, defenses will have plenty more defensive juice to focus on Williams and his teammates, which could mean poorer shooting from the field and more turnovers. Color me crazy, but his offseason comments about his emotional struggles post-LeBron might be a bigger downer for his potential this season than many realize. Remember what happened to Steve Francis after Cuttino Mobley was traded from the Magic? Take that as a cautionary tale.

3. Baron Davis
He didn’t show up to training camp in shape and continues to work on his conditioning. Add to this Davis’ history of injuries and the possibility for an unhealthy portion of DNPs this season seems very good – in a bad way. Eric Gordon‘s emergence should also be a red flag for Davis’ production this year, and it’s likely that he’ll have to adjust playing with a potential stud like Blake Griffin in his frontcourt. Davis will be a player who should make you happy when he is drafted onto someone else’s roster, not yours.

4. John Salmons
He put up great numbers across the board when he was dealt to the Bulls in the middle of the 2008-09 season, but struggled last fall as he embarked on what was supposed to be his first full season in Chicago. Salmons is in a similar position this season in Milwaukee, where he landed and produced solid lines after being dealt by the Bulls last year. The big, unfavorable difference is that the Bucks have bulked up their roster, most notably with Corey Maggette. This, along with his knee sprain and the continued development of Brandon Jennings, and there’s good reason to be skeptical of Salmons’ chances this season. He followed up his strong start in Chicago with a flop, and it’s easy to see why he might repeat that cycle this year in Milwaukee.

5. Channing Frye
He began last season as a candidate for sleeper of the year, but quickly dropped off the map after he lost his starting job to Robin Lopez, who figures to be a more prominent player for the Suns this season. With Amar’e Stoudemire no longer in Phoenix, the Suns clearly need an interior defensive presence and a big man capable of finishing near the basket off of Steve Nash’s adept passes on the offensive end. Lopez fills both of those needs, though he isn’t anywhere near the offensive threat Stoudemire was. While some still hold hope that Frye will win the starting job, it’s clear that a starting lineup that includes Frye would just be five dudes slashing around and standing behind the three-point line. It’s not going to happen. Frye’s fantasy appeal shriveled once Lopez took over at center, and a comeback this season isn’t likely.

What do you think?

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • Chawn((99

    I have a question. Iguodala is being asked to shot less threes (increase shooting %), drive more (more free throws), there will be other players asked to creats which will allow him more open looks( again shooting % increase)….but hes gonna be a bust? If he had any fantasy value in Eddie Jordan’s wacked out offense, why wouldnt he have more value playing under a coach that will actually give him role and direction?

  • http://www.twitter.com/lakersnation @LakersNation

    Keeper Question – Beasley or Robin Lopez . . . i already have Brother Brooke has my other Keeper and D.Rose at PG

  • Antouan

    Agree with all of them! Doc, I also agree with you about not drafting D Howard to go along with CP3. If Anthony or Roy are avaible late in R2…would do you think would pair up better with CP3?

    Thanks again!

  • Casey Mack

    I can see O.J. Mayo on this list. His numbers declined last year as the Griz have become more team oriented. I see his numbers dropping again this season with Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph being ahead of him in the Memphis pecking order.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Chawn((99: You say “potato,” I say “chips.” With every big change, there’s a pessimistic perspective and an optimistic one. Where you see a higher FG% (which, I agree, is likely), I see more turnovers. Where you see more free throws, I see a big decline from his 1.2 3ptm last season. While an uptick in FG% and more FTs are nice, I don’t think they outweigh the decline in points, loss of threes and rise in TOs. All that, along with the risk that comes with so many transitions, makes me wary of his chances this season.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @@LakersNation: Go with the Lopez Bros.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Antouan: I like both Anthony and Roy, so long as they’re taken in the latter half of the second round. Roy’s health still scares me, but Anthony’s discontent in Denver is also a concern. I’d give the edge to Melo, but both have their risks.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Casey Mack: I agree. I’ve never been the biggest fan of Mayo, but yes, things aren’t exactly looking up for him this season. Besides that frontcourt, he’s dealing with a thicker backcourt that includes Tony Allen and Xavier Henry.

  • Chawn((99

    @ Fantasy Dr.

    But if the main “negative” for this year for him will be other players around him scoring, well I honestly see that helping his average. Hes not the type of player to get in a lot of isos and score. Hes not kobe, or JJ, or even B Roy. He doesnt get the ball and let everyone clear out. He scored that 17ppg last year as an opportunistic scorer. More scorers and shooters on the floor, that will get him more opportunities.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Chawn((99: Coach Collins is asking him to be a distributor, so I have my reservations about his scoring opportunities. Besides, his points aren’t my main concern here; the very real potential for fewer threes and more turnovers are my concerns.

  • Slips

    Those are actually some solid picks. Mo williams might still give you that 15-17 PPG, but his percentages are sure to drop. I still think iguodala will give you those steals and blocks that other players at his caliber won’t.

  • k to the mart

    Hey doc what do advice could u give me about handling the andrew bogut situation? I drafted lots of bigs just in case he went down,but the only problem is I only have 2 shooting guards on my roster. Do u think I should be patient with him or drop him before things get ugly?
    P.s. although I am lacking shooting guards I am not really lacking in any specific category

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @k to the mart: It depends on how ugly things get. If you’re really concerned, I’d sell high on him once he strings together a few strong lines. I’d try to avoid dropping him unless he gets seriously hurt again. Be patient with him for the first two months or so, and if things don’t get better, you might want to test the market to see if there’s a hopeful owner who might give you decent value in return.

  • http://www.twitter.com/zibala37 ZIBALA37

    @Fantasy Doctor

    I have Pau Gasol, Mike Beasley, Zach Randolph, Nic Batum and Andray Blatche but I need more 3 point shooting, which player out of the five that I mentioned should I place on my trading block?

  • fantasy physician

    how can you not include Rose on this list. His fanboys are bound to draft him thinking he will provide big returns, but he is actually a really terrible fantasy player.

    He shoots no threes, gets no steals, no blocks, low assists and rebounds and doesn’t shoot great percentages, other than from 2 pt.

    I’m going to laugh at whoever drafts him high in my league.

  • JH

    Need 4 more people for a competitive H2H Yahoo League drafting this Sunday. Feel free to join…but be active.

    League ID#: 12722
    League Name: Justice League
    Password: password
    Draft Type: Live Standard Draft
    Draft Time: Sun Oct 17 8:00pm MDT [ Add to My Calendar ]
    Max Teams: 12
    Scoring Type: Head-to-Head

  • Ric Hardwood

    Hedo? Ariza? I got busted by both them fools… hehe

  • http://www.twitter.com/zibala37 ZIBALA37

    Forgot to mention it earlier but I also have Andrew Bogut on my fantasy team

  • mess

    I disagree about Mo. He put up some pretty decent numbers when he was with the Bucks.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @ZIBALA37: Beasley’s the least appealing of those guys, so I’d say him but he won’t fetch you much. Batum will get you threes, so keep him. If Beasley doesn’t get you enough, I’d say to put up Blatche or Bogut, or a combination of those three.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @fantasy physician: I completely agree with you on Rose. More than a bust though, I’d consider him as a player whose real-life value misleads many fantasy owners. But again, I completely agree.

  • FK

    I’m being offered D Wade for Steph Curry and I can’t tell why I am so tentative to pull the trigger (other than the injury and the congestion on the Heat roster).

    Who do I want more? I feel like I know it’s Wade, yet I can’t push the accept button

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @FK: Tough call. I’d personally rather have Curry, even without Nellie around, for the reasons you’ve mentioned and because of Curry’s upside. If your team would hurt from losing some threes and steals, stay put. If you think you could do without them, and if you’re OK taking Wade’s injury risks, feel free to make the swap. If I were you though, I’d most likely stay put.

  • NYDaredevil

    Hey Doc

    I’m being offered LBJ and Noah for Pau Gasol and Blake Griffin?

    Any comments?

    Thanks!!!

  • KB8toSG8

    @NY Daredevil

    I’d most likely stay put. Griffin is gonna breakout this season and start his onslaught save for some horrible injury. For those who like a teaser, see Clippers’ preseason game vs Spurs ( Duncan was kept at bay…. ) and the first game against someone in which he got a double double in 12 mins. 12 MINS!!!

    Pau is still going to be consistently getting you 18-20 points and lots of rebounds while having a great FG%. He’s a definite keeper for me. I’m just not sure how LeBron is gonna turn out with Coach Spoelstra (?) making it very clear that sharing the rock is top priority.

  • KB8toSG8

    Oh……

    I’m being offered B.Lopez for Arenas……I’m hoping Lopez has a breakout year this time and Arenas still finds himself in trouble but on the court, he can put great numbers. I’m only worried about his injuries and suspensions. Should I take Arenas or should I stay put?????

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @NYDaredevil: Wow, enticing. I agree with @KB8toSG8 in that Griff seems set to bust out some enormous guns of vengeance this season, but his FT% is going to be killer — Dwight Howard-killer, or worse maybe. I’d actually be inclined to pull the trigger on that deal, unless you already have enough assists and threes. LBJ is a top-three stud, and it’s tough to turn down an offer that includes him.

    LBJ > Gasol
    Griffin could be more valuable than Noah, but his preseason (and keep that in mind — it was just preseason) performances aside, he’s still something of an unknown and he’ll probably kill your FT%.

    So, again, unless adding assists and threes would be overkill, and unless your team needs the extra boards (but not by much) and blocks, take the deal.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @KB8toSG8: If I’m hearing you correctly, you would give up Lopez and get Arenas. If that’s the case, run for the hill — reject that deal and don’t look back.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @KB8toSG8: If I’m hearing you correctly, you would give up Lopez and get Arenas. If that’s the case, run for the hills — reject that deal and don’t look back.

  • Duck

    Doc, I’ve been thinking this ALL SEASON, but if I ever get 1st pick in a snake, why wouldn’t I draft CP3 over Lebron? I mean in a points league, or even a 9cats, cp3 looks like he’d be so much more useful.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Duck: The consensus first pick this season is KD, but CP3 wouldn’t be an absurd way to use it either. CP3 and LeBron are essentially a coin flip for No. 2 overall this season, but there isn’t a whole lot separating these three players. If you want CP3 as your No. 1, go for it.

  • Duck

    Second of three leagues I’ll be in this year:
    (3rd in a 10 team H2H)

    1 LeBron James, Mia SF
    2 Gerald Wallace, Cha SF
    3 Al Jefferson, Uta C
    4 Marc Gasol, Mem C
    5 Derrick Rose, Chi PG
    6 Gilbert Arenas, Was PG
    7 LaMarcus Aldridge, Por PF
    8 Jamal Crawford, Atl SG
    9 Lamar Odom, LAL PF
    10 Richard Hamilton, Det SG
    11 Nicolas Batum, Por SF
    12 Beno Udrih, Sac PG
    13 Reggie Williams, GS SF

    I ended up getting Gilbert and Crawford at the same places as last time. Haha.

  • Duck

    I just got offered W. Chandler for Rip.
    Good? Bad? Eh?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Duck: Solid draft. You took Rip too high, but the other picks are good. Chandler for Rip is pretty much a wash, so “Eh.” I don’t think much of it either way, though I’ll say that Chandler is kind of glued to the bench at the moment.

  • KB8toSG8

    Hmmm…..I got another enticing offer….. Pau for B.Lopez……everyone seems to offer me someone for Lopez. But its Pau….and judging by the preseason, I think he’s gonna shoulder a bit more of the scoring load since KB is still recovering. And without Farmar (who uses the big guns only for screens…..) and Blake seems to be a willing passer to Pau…..there’s going to be a spike in his production (however minimal) and he’s also scary efficient now that his mid range jumper in the paint is falling consistently as well (last year it wasn’t as good…..) . But Lopez might have a breakout year this time with only him and D.Harris balling for the Nets (if you include Outlaw, fine…..) Hmmm……I dunno what to do.

    @Fantasy Doctor : I’ve got Nash on my squad to balance out the FT% of Griffin. And Nash is totally effective as well. But this season is starting to make me worry. Without Amare, there are bound to be less dimes for him. Do you think it’d be best for me to offer Nash for S.Curry??

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @KB8toSG8: Pau > Brook, so accept that gem of a deal.

    Nash is set for a step back this season, so if you can somehow get Curry straight up for Nash, do it.

  • G1

    Hi, I was wondering if you could give my team a quick glance? I’m playing in a Categories H2H league with 8 teams. Here are my picks in order:

    1. LeBron James
    2. Carmelo Anthony
    3. Monta Ellis
    4. Al Jefferson
    5. Al Horford.
    6. Eric Gordon
    7. Raymond Felton
    8. Hedo Turkoglu
    9. Kevin Martin
    10. Roy Hibbert
    11. Jameer Nelson
    12. Andrei Kirilenko
    13. Beno Udrih

    I like my Gordon, Felton, and Hibbert picks, but I feel like I’m lacking in the rebounds department, so I’m thinking of trading Gordon for Kidd. I figure the loss in points isn’t that big a deal because I have some insane scorers, but do you think that would be a good trade?

    Moreover, what categories do you think I could improve in?

    Thanks so much!

  • ??

    Doc,

    I need your advice, i’m in a 16team 9-cat h2h league. I built my team with bigs this year and have practically given up the 3pts made category.

    I drafted (unwillingly) OJ Mayo and Ben Gordon, and i’m looking to trade them for a point guard, can u suggest who i can probably acquire via trade for either?

    My PGs are Jarret Jack and Beno Udrih

    Thanks

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @G1: I think you took Melo too early, but so be it. Overall, good draft.

    I’m not sure you can get Kidd for just Gordon, but if you can that’s a huge steal.

    If you trade Gordon though, make sure you get threes in return or you’ll be fairly vulnerable in that category. Felton and Turk could weigh down your FG%, so keep an eye on that.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @??: Udrih will be a capable starter for your squad this season, so good job grabbing him.

    For Mayo, target guys like Devin Harris, Baron Davis, John Wall or Brandon Jennings.

    For Gordon, target guys like Mike Conley, Tony Parker, Leandro Barbosa, Rodney Stuckey and D.J. Augustin.

  • gMuneeKLIK

    @The Fantasy Docter

    Hey Doc,
    Did my first draft last night on Yahoo, I ended up getting the first pick in a 16 person standard draft. I ended up taking Dwight Howard with my first pick. My line up consists of:

    PG: Russell Westbrook
    SG: Brandon Roy
    SF: Luol Deng
    PF: Luis Scola
    C: Dwight Howard
    Util: Marc Gasol
    Util: Eric Gordon
    Bench: Omri Casspi
    Bench: Louis Williams
    Bench: Terrence Williams (I personally think he’s going to be a sleeper this year)
    Bench: Ty Lawson
    Bench: Mareese Speights
    Bench: Tyler Hansbrough

    I know I will dominate in rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. Possibly points too if the stories I’ve read about Dwight working on his post game with Hakeem The Dream are true. I was just wondering if there are any players you suggest I keep an eye out on for Free Throw percentage and Assists. Your analysis’ are the only ones I trust next to my gut haha. Let me know what you think.

  • KB8toSG8

    Hmm….what would you guys think of an Al Jefferson for Andrew Bogut move????

    I’m personally not very enthusiastic about this one since Bogut is coming on from a horrible hand injury. But I’m hoping he and Jennings can turn into a poor man’s Shaq and Penny or even Shaq/Kobe………(yeah, I love to dream lol.)

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @KB8toSG8: I’d take Al Jefferson every single time — for this season.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @gMuneeKLIK: Wow, Howard at No. 1? If turnovers aren’t counted, then I can kind of see this happening. We’ve been waiting on improvements every single summer for Howard, so I’m not holding my breath this season, Hakeem or no Hakeem. If you’re asking for players that might be available on your waiver wire who could help with FT% and assists, I’d see if Ramon Sessions, Jeff Teague, Steve Blake, J.J. Redick or Kirk Hinrich are available.

  • gMuneeKLIK

    thanks Doc, I made a typo. I had the 7th pick haha my mistake. Can you give me your opinion on Terrence Williams and what you think he will do this season? I will definitely keep my eye out for Sessions and Teague. Blake too because he may start over D. Fish at times

  • bballin

    I’m in a 10 team H2H league. Here’s the stat categories and positions…

    PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, Util, Util, Util,

    Categories: Field Goals Made (FGM), Field Goal Percentage (FG%), Free Throws Made (FTM), Free Throw Percentage (FT%), 3-point Shots Made (3PTM), Points Scored (PTS), Total Rebounds (REB), Assists (AST), Steals (ST), Blocked Shots (BLK), Turnovers (TO)

    I know you know all the acronyms since you are THE Doc but hey, copy and paste is a beautiful thing!

    So here’s my draft. Let me know what you think and what moves I may need to make

    1. (5) Dirk Nowitzki PF
    2. (16) Steve Nash PG
    3. (25) Al Horford PF,C
    4. (36) Andrea Bargnani PF,C
    5. (45) Jason Kidd PG
    6. (56) Nene Hilario PF,C
    7. (65) Andray Blatche PF,C
    8. (76) Jason Terry PG,SG
    9. (85) Luol Deng SF
    10. (96) Andrei Kirilenko SF,PF
    11. (105) Anthony Morrow SG,SF
    12. (116) Mike Conley PG
    13. (125) Thaddeus Young SF,PF
    14. (136) James Harden SG

  • @stevenash

    Hi I’m in a roto league my lineup is d Williams, s curry, b Roy, k durant, d granger, josh smith, dwight Howard Tim Duncan, a iguodala, and lamar odom with j rich, griffin, and d collison on my bench. Do u suggest I take pau gasol for Howard? Also should I dump anyone on my benxh for m gasol or j Noah? Thanks