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Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Nov 19, 2010 / 1:30 pm

Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Week 4

Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk Nowitzki (photo. Monte Isom)

Buy Low:
Dirk Nowitzki: Diggler’s been a mixed bag so far this season. Though he’s improved his shooting from the field and rebounding, all of his other averages have fallen from where they were last season, and his turnovers have risen. His value has always been his efficient shooting and his ability to average close to one steal, one block and one three per game. While the shooting is still there, the steals, blocks and threes are not, which puts a real dent in his value. Still, Nowitzki is too good to remain a player with second- or third-round value, which is what he’s given his owners so far. His bum ankle will heal soon enough, and so will his fantasy value.

Antawn Jamison: After a very rough start to the season, Jamison has turned things up a notch in the last week or so. On a Cavs team with very few steady options on offense, Jamison’s value to the team is obviously there. Add to this J.J. Hickson‘s poor play as the starting power forward and coach Byron Scott‘s public ruminations about replacing Hickson with Jamison in the starting five and the future is looking brighter by the moment for the 34-year-old forward.

Troy Murphy: Murphy’s foot is reportedly a non-issue at this point, but that hasn’t stopped coach Avery Johnson from handing the power forward two consecutive DNP-CDs. Trade rumors aside, it’s safe to say the Nets’ brain trust didn’t bring him in to be squandered on the bench. Trust that he’ll eventually regain a prominent role, whether it’s as a starter or as a sixth man. If you can take him off his frustrated owner’s hands, it might be a cheap-yet-wise investment.

O.J. Mayo: After a string of solid games during the start of the season, his last handful of games have left his owners waning a lot more than he’s been able to provide them with. Somehow, Mayo is averaging about three-and-a-half fewer minutes per game so far this season, and his shooting percentages, scoring, rebounding and assists are all down from last season’s marks. Mayo will regain his footing sooner than later, especially since Mike Conley has cooled off from his hot start. He can be had for a bargain these days and there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll regain most, if not all, of his value before the end of the year.

Marc Gasol: Little Gasol has been a big disappointment so far in 2010-11. His points, rebounds and blocks are all down from where they were last season and expectations of a breakout season are on the backburner for now. But the reason for Gasol’s early struggles is clear: he’s averaging 4.2 fouls per game, tied for second with DeMarcus Cousins and just behind Dwight Howard. Gasol should figure out how to lower that number soon, and a rise in his averages will be close behind.

David Lee, Andre Iguodala, John Wall and any other productive fantasy players who are injured should be considered buy-low candidates.

Sell High:
Michael Beasley: He’s been on an absolute tear since his 42-point outburst on Nov. 10. He’s been shooting 55.6 percent from the field and averaging 32.6 points, 1.8 threes, 6.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block in his last five games. While Beasley should be applauded for his big-time production in Minny, it’s hard to believe he’s capable of keeping this pace up even through the end of next week. His value probably won’t get any higher during the remainder of the season than it is right now, so do your best to see what you can get for him.

Jason Terry: Many fantasy owners were pretty down on Terry coming into this season, but he’s blown expectations out of the water so far, as he’s returned to 2008-09 form. However, once Caron Butler‘s back heals up and once Rodrigue Beaubois returns to claim a starting spot, Terry’s value is sure to be considerably deflated. His return to happy days is numbered.

Tony Parker: This sell-high recommendation isn’t based on the notion that Parker will struggle on the court because of his off-court issues (though it’s fine if you think that). This recommendation is based on his unsustainable averages so far. The main knocks on Parker’s fantasy value have always been his lack of threes (unchanged) and steals (very much changed). Through 10 games, Parker has been thieving two balls per game, exactly double his career average. He’s also averaging 7.6 assists, nearly two more than his 5.7 assists-per-game mark last season. Oh, and he’s also averaging a healthy 18.6 points per game, up from 16 points per game last season. The steals aren’t going to stay that high, and his scoring will likely dip now that Tim Duncan appears to be back on track and George Hill seems to be finding his comfort zone off the bench. He’s playing at an elite level right now, but fantasy owners shouldn’t believe that Parker has fundamentally changed his game overnight.

Gilbert Arenas: He strung together two solid outings this past week and even started twice, thanks to Wall’s absence from the lineup. Arenas is showing signs of life lately and is fulfilling expectations that he’d be a three-point machine this season, averaging 3.0 triples per game so far. In an effort to avoid tiring your eyes by listing his many risks, let’s just say that any week when Arenas puts together some solid lines is a good week to sell high on him.

Daniel Gibson: He might be the one Cav to most impressively step out from LeBron James‘ now-vacant shadow in Cleveland. We all knew he was a three-point shooter, but Boobie has done a lot more than that so far this season, averaging 14.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.0 steal, along with his 1.8 threes per game. But with Mo Williams on the mend and set to bring some instability to that backcourt, Gibson seems set for some inconsistency for the rest of the way. His value is solid right now and it’d be a good idea to trade him for someone whose minutes are more reliable.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

Follow Jason on Twitter at @fbasketballblog.

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  • slickyrickyross

    Yo Doc,
    I’m in a 14 team h2h league and Anthony Randolph and JR Smith are both on waivers.
    Who do you think will have a better year considering they’re both getting splinters right now?
    I need help pretty much equally in the stats they provide.
    Thanks again

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @slickyrickyross: Tough call, but I’d choose Smith, who stand a better chance at shooting his way out of the hole he’s in — especially if Carmelo is dealt.

  • cdiz

    Manu for dirk a good deal?. Need REBS

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @cdiz: You should be able to do better (you’d be selling high on Manu and buying low on Dirk in one shot, which isn’t ideal), but it’s decent.

  • slickyrickyross

    Thanks Doc for the response.
    I think a dope article that Dime could do would be on the best college fantasy basketball teams from the players in the league right now!
    I.E. UCLA-Love, Westbrook, Collison, Farmar, Ariza, etc.
    Wake Forest-CP3, Al Farouq Aminu, Duncan. etc.

  • ManilaFTW

    Hey Doc, apparently someone beat me to the punch with dropping Derozan for Mo-Will.

    Here’s my current lineup, 9cats, 10managers, H2H.

    Wall
    Rondo
    Ellis
    Batum
    D. Wright
    Amare
    Howard
    Jamison
    Al Harrington
    Udrih
    Artest (lined up to be dropped for Duncan)
    Derozan (lined up to be dropped for Mayo)

    What do you think of my team?

    Available still are Carl Landry, Drew Gooden, Afflalo, Lewis, Butler, Weems.

    Thanks in advance, you’ve been very helpful lately. unfortunately The Mamba King is in my league and he’s the one who got Mo-Will. haha

  • Kevin H

    Hey Doc,

    I’m ASST-stacked and looking to trade Kidd for something of similar value. Problem is, no one is REMOTELY interested at all? What should I do? Who should I target? I’m looking for a sg/or sf/or pf eligible

  • Manu14

    Man you don’t know shit about spurs basketball and Tony Parker…
    Last year was a off/injured one BTW.

  • The Mamba King

    Sup Doc?

    I have a dillema… my team is in need of blocks and I am torn between picking Tyson Chandler or Darko Milicic (dont laugh) who do you think has the potential to perform better as the season goes along in that category? and who has the better fantasy value among the 2 based on overall stats?

    Thanks for your input it is really appreciated.

  • ManilaFTW

    @Mamba, Get Amare for Kobe

  • Kevin P.

    JJ Hickson + Russell Westbrook for Tim Duncan + DJ Augustin?

  • Kevin P.

    i currently have the most turnovers and lowest fg % in my league but am doing well in all other categories… should i do this trade?

  • jimmy

    hey doc, I need ur help big time.
    I have Lowry and Zydrunas ilgauskas as two of my bench/waiver players. I need carlos delfino on my team and I do not want to miss out on him. We still havne’t heard much from him yet but delfino should return before december. Is it time to pick up delfino? then do I drop Lowry? (brooks due back in 2-3 weeks) or ilgausaks? (haslem out for awhile).

  • fits

    Yo doc, what’s your thoughts on Tiago Splitter? He’s available in my league and I need rebounds. Should I drop Warrick for him or just keep him?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @slickyrickyross: I’ll take that into consideration — thanks for the suggestion.

    @ManilaFTW: Good squad, but it’s hard to really say whether or not you’ve got a winner in a 10-team league, since the other squads are probably strong too. I like the swaps you’re about to make. I’d also consider swapping out Beno for Drew, but it’s not a no-brainer. Gotta love the competition right here in these comments. I hope I’ll be able to equally help you both.

    @Kevin H: Kidd’s one of those dudes who is always tough to sell, despite his appeal. I’d suggest aiming for guys like J-Rich, David West, Chris Bosh, KG, G-Wall or Al Jefferson.

    @The Mamba King: Darko has played too well to deserve laughs at this point. For blocks, he’s your man. If your league counts FT%, Chandler might have better overall value down the stretch, but his health is a big concern. If you’re willing to take the gamble, however, Darko has the edge in the upside department.

    @Kevin P.: Unless you’re desperate for depth, I’d lean toward no. I think you can do better for Westbrook, especially since Duncan seems very shaky right now and Augustin is struggling with ups and downs.

    @jimmy: You’ve got the right idea — I’d drop Lowry before Ilgauskas as this point.

    @fits: Yeah, that seems like a good swap/stash.