Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Week 5
Dwyane Wade (photo. Jonathan Mannion)
Buy Low:
Dwyane Wade has been a nightmare (in the bad way) lately. He’s banged up and his numbers have been downright ugly during the past week or so. That said, when the Heat find a groove and once Wade heals up a bit, he should find his way back into top-15 status. He’s the definition of a buy-low player this week.
Gerald Wallace has struggled with inconsistency so far this season and is scoring, rebounding and thieving less than he was last season. Nevertheless, he continues to play 38+ minutes a night and won’t have many weeks worse than the one he just had, when he averaged a pedestrian 12/7/3 with just a steal and less than a block per game, along with 3.8 turnovers.
Andrei Kirilenko hit a low point on Wednesday with a 0/3/1 line. That followed an underwhelming 10/4 game. He’ll struggle with inconsistency this season but his value won’t get much lower than this. Kirilenko is still a borderline 1/1/1 guy, so if you’ve been eyeing him this season, consider this your AK-47 Black Friday.
O.J. Mayo has been awful this season, especially in his last three games. His poor play has pushed him to the bench in his last two games and there seems to be very little going for him. Mayo was on this list last week, but his value has dropped even lower since then, which means he can probably be had for very cheap right now. If you can afford to stash him on your bench and hope that he finds his way soon, go for it.
Roy Hibbert has averaged 7.5 points, 6 rebounds, one assist, one block and 1.5 turnovers in his last two games. In the first game he struggled with foul trouble and played only 21:32. In his second game, he left an easy blowout victory early because he got hit in the head. So, yes, this past week has been a fluke and this might be the best chance owners will have to buy low on the stud this season.
Carlos Boozer, Rajon Rondo, Chris Kaman and any other productive fantasy players who are injured should be considered buy-low candidates.
Sell High:
Darko Milicic has been playing out of his mind lately and has put up top-10 numbers during the last week. He looks to have anchored himself in that starting lineup and will be worth owning the rest of the way, but his value is being pushed up against his ceiling, which means there’s a very good chance of a drop-off in value sooner than later. His owners should at least see what they can fetch for him on the market after his career week.
Joakim Noah continues to play at a brilliant level this season, but Boozer’s return is at hand. Noah will still be a fine fantasy player, but his shots (at a career-high 10.7 per game) and rebounds (also at a career-high 13.4) are certainly going to be dented once that starting lineup is at full strength.
Lamar Odom’s story is similar to Noah’s: the return of a teammate is set to weigh down his value. In Odom’s case, that teammate is Andrew Bynum, who is less than two weeks away from his scheduled return. It’s scientifically proven that Odom’s production takes a significant hit when Bynum is in that Lakers lineup, so his owners should follow that line of logic and sell high as soon as possible.
Kevin Martin is doing his thing in Houston, scoring and hitting threes with ease. This sell-high recommendation isn’t so much based on Aaron Brooks’ pending return as it is on K-Mart’s fragile health. The fact is Martin hasn’t played in more than 61 games since 2006-07. In each of his past three seasons, Martin has played 61 games, 51 games and 46 games, respectively. Clearly, his next string of DNPs is looming right around the corner.
Kris Humphries has been a fantastic addition to many fantasy rosters this season. He gives you what you want from a big man and has won the favor of coach Avery Johnson. However, Troy Murphy seems very close to returning to the Nets’ lineup, and despite coach Johnson’s foreboding words that there might not be many minutes for Murphy, fantasy owners have to expect that Humphries is in for fewer minutes once Murphy returns. That power forward position will be crowded with Humphries, Murphy and Derrick Favors all vying for playing time, so Humphries’ owners would do well to see what he’s worth in the market today.
Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.
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November 26th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
Jimmy says:
Kev.Martin/J.Johnson/Augustin/Waiver for R.Westbrook/AK47/Jamison/Frye. How’s this trade? buying low on ak47 and jamison while selling kev martin and jj?
November 26th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
CGB says:
DOC
What do you think of Keven Martin for Gilbert Arenas?
I own Kmart, but I really think he’s overdue for an injury
November 26th, 2010 at 7:34 pm
Colton says:
Doc,
i have kris humphries and i was wondering what would be a compareable straight across trade.
November 26th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
the truth says:
Doc, is it a good idea to sell high on JRich? I’m looking to get a player with high FG% and FT% and I do have a lot of 3PT shooters on my team that also cost me on the FG% end (Jennings, Rose) so I’m looking to package Dhow and JRich. Good or bad idea?
November 27th, 2010 at 4:21 am
brian says:
ive offered Nowitzki, Gallinari, CJ Miles for Wade,Rondo and Beasley. Do you think this trade is acceptable?
I want to get those trio in a trade since rondo and wade are kind of buy-low candidates right now. my roster consists of: Holiday,Iguodala,Kidd,Gallinari,Nowitzki,G Wallace,Z Randolph,Cousins,Humphries,D Lee,Murphy,CJ Miles,Richardson,Boozer,Bynum.
what can you give me an advice of a potential good trade i could offer to get that trio (wade,rondo,beasely) into my lineup without giving up too much?
thank you so much!
November 27th, 2010 at 9:42 am
Conrad says:
Drop W-Matthews for Kleiza or Warrick? It’s either that or start TDouglas, Ty Thomas, or D-Cuz (and keep Matthews stashed for a B-Roy injury) next week as my flex. Thanks, Doc!
November 27th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
brian says:
1 more question, doc. do you think Ben Gordon is a buy-low candidate right now? he clears the waivers on sunday. in how much urgency should i be to pick him up? or should i just leave him there?
November 27th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
david says:
i offered my d.lee and ariza for his eric gordon and calderon. he accepted
what do you think?
November 27th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Nick says:
Buying low on Marc Gasol? He’s looked reallllly “meh”… is he worth my Luol Deng?
November 27th, 2010 at 10:51 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@Jimmy: That looks fine to me, though you’re taking on a lot more risk in AK, Jamison and Frye.
@CGB: That looks like a solid deal to me, though Arenas has risks of his own.
@Colton: Probably not much. Most owners still don’t trust his long-term prospects, especially with Troy Murphy set to return to the lineup tomorrow. Aim for solid middle to low-end guys on the other owner’s roster who get you stats you want.
@the truth: J-Rich should continue to be solid down the stretch, but if you want to bolster some of your categories, there’s no harm in exploring his value.
@brian: You’re probably reaching a bit with that offer, but it’s not that lopsided. Maybe offering Bynum instead of Miles would be more palatable for the other owner. Until a trade is made, Gordon isn’t set to bust out anytime soon. He’s not an urgent add.
@Conrad: I’d start TT and stash Matthews.
@david: That looks decent to me.
@Nick: I say yes, especially since I’m of the mind that Deng will struggle a bit when Boozer returns.
November 28th, 2010 at 9:20 am
brian says:
murphy is playing today, doc? i have both murphy and humphrey. should i trade one away? or keep both and hope murphy gets traded? or just keep both and see which one is able to play better and then drop the other one?
November 28th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
BrickLayer says:
hey doc,
someone just dropped troy murphy, i could drop wes matthews, delfino or affalo.
Should i make a move?
Cheers
November 28th, 2010 at 7:55 pm
BrickLayer says:
oh yeah and if i pick up murphy, would you start him next week over afflalo or matthews?
November 29th, 2010 at 2:16 am
ManilaFTW says:
Doc, I was beaten badly last week. thanks to the injuries of Wall and Rondo, and the crap that OJ Mayo gave all his fantasy owners.
Anyway, should I still tweak my roster, let me know what you think:
Wall, Rondo, Amare, Dwight, Batum, C.Butler, Jamison, Salmons, Holiday, A.Harrington, Monta, Duncan.
Available players are: Diaw, Fields, Murphy, Gooden, Hickson, Dalembert, Hedo, CharlieV, Tayshaun, Warrick, Delfino, B.Rush.
Should i be switching anyone from the notable available players?
Thanks in advance again!
November 29th, 2010 at 9:42 am
tigerstyLe says:
sup Doc. league info:
16 Team Roto
pg.Rodney Stuckey,sg.Brandon Roy,g.Eric Gordon
sf.Paul Pierce,pf.Ronny Turiaf,f.Danillo Gallinari
c.Pau Gasol,c.Troy Murphy
ut.Shane Battier,ut.Marco Bellineli
bench.Chris Anderson,Rodrigue Beaubois,Jerryd Bayless
im gettin killed in rebounds and i pretty much punted the steals cat. do you think i should start makin moves (trading Pau, or picking up someone like rondo), or should i just stand pat? as always, thanks for the wisdom!!
November 29th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
The Fantasy Doctor says:
@brian: If you can, keep both and see what happens.
@BrickLayer: I’d stay put for now.
@ManilaFTW: I would stand pat for now, though if Batum loses his starting gig, consider Fields, Villanueva or Diaw.
@tigerstyLe: I’d sell high on Roy if possible and try to package guys near the end of your roster for small upgrades.