Fantasy Doctor / Dec 17, 2010 / 1:15 pm

Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Week 8

J.R. Smith (photo. Mark Mann)

J.R. Smith (photo. Mark Mann)

Buy Low:
J.R. Smith has been all over the place this season. The good news is that he’s finally getting a steady diet of minutes for the Nuggets. The bad news is that it’s hard to predict when he’ll do much with them. However, Smith remains a solid source of threes and steals, despite his low field-goal percentage, and should Carmelo Anthony be dealt away in the coming weeks (which seems increasingly possible), Smith will have more minutes and shots fall into his lap.

Stephen Jackson has been turning in some lackluster lines lately. He’s averaging 12.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 turnovers and just 0.5 threes in his last four outings. But consider this: Two of those games were blowout losses for the Bobcats, and Jackson was mired in foul trouble for another, limiting his minutes and production. He’s still a solid fantasy player and could be pried a bit easier from his owners’ hands if they haven’t been paying attention to the details behind the lines.

Nicolas Batum was one of the most intriguing players heading into this season, but he soon fizzled into waiver-wire fodder. He had a nice little run earlier this month, but his last four games have been awful. Still, Batum’s true value lies in being Brandon Roy insurance. With Roy laboring with a bum knee and struggling on the court, it looks more and more likely that he’ll accumulate his share of DNPs sooner than later. Batum’s value will get an instant boost should this happen.

Roy Hibbert‘s December has been a month to forget so far. His production and minutes have been sporadic at best, and fantasy owners are vigorously shaking their fists at coach Jim O’Brien‘s maddening minute distributions. The good news is that Hibbert remains capable of turning things around and is saying all the right things about his poor play, despite his coach’s tough words about his center not “having a very good season.” Productive centers are hard to come by, and Hibbert is one of the better ones when playing well. Try to get him on the cheap before that happens again.

Luol Deng had a strong November but has been limited so far this month because of a roster that was back at full strength. However, with Joakim Noah out anywhere from 6-10 weeks after having thumb surgery, Deng’s value immediately gets a bump. He’ll get minutes at power forward and should return to being closer to the player he was near the start of the season.

Rajon Rondo, Joe Johnson, Stephen Curry and any other productive fantasy players who are injured should be considered buy-low candidates.

Sell High:
Channing Frye really turned his season around after Robin Lopez went down with a knee injury. Despite Lopez’s return Wednesday, Frye started at power forward and managed to put up 21/9 along with a steal, two blocks and seven threes. Nevertheless, the negative impact Lopez’s presence has on Frye’s value can’t be overlooked. There’s a chance that Frye will keep things rolling right along, but his owners should at least explore what kind of value he’ll fetch for them. It would do them well to swap him for another player whose value isn’t as chancy.

Mike Dunleavy Jr. has had himself a good week, but two threats to his value remain: a timeshare and revolving starting gig shared with Brandon Rush, and a history of shaky health. After such a strong week, his owners should do their best to deal him for someone without those kinds of hazards.

Kyle Lowry, as expected, has done an admirable job filling in as the Rockets’ starting point guard. But with Aaron Brooks closer to his reclaiming his starting job, Lowry’s value is ticking away. The good news for owners looking to sell high on him is that Brooks still appears a couple weeks away from returning, which gives Lowry’s owners more time to make a deal.

Glen Davis doesn’t put up gaudy numbers, but he gets the job done. Big Baby has gone from being waiver-wire material to being a viable starter in some leagues. Since Black Friday, Davis has averaged 15 points, 7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.1 turnovers, all while shooting 51 percent from the field and 77 percent from the free-throw line. Those are solid numbers. However, with the Jermaine O’Neal getting closer to returning to the court, Davis’ value will take a blow in the coming weeks.

Caron Butler had his best game of the season on Wednesday and finished with 23 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists. He’s been looking a lot better lately than he did at the beginning of the season, but his owners shouldn’t get too comfortable with him on their rosters. His name remains bigger than his actual fantasy value, so do what you can to sell high on him, especially before Rodrigue Beaubois returns to put yet another hurdle in Butler’s way.

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  • atticusmitch

    Hey Doc,

    Should I deal Noah for someone of lesser value or just sit on him? I was thinking about trading him for Deng. What do u think?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @atticusmitch: He’s out for a long time, so trading him is a fine idea, and Deng is a fine target.

  • WuMan

    Hi Doc, great work as usual.
    I’m thinking offer Caron Butler+Landry Fields for David Lee. Or Caron Butler for Darren Collison straight up. May I have your opinion? Who else I can try to target with Butler or Fields? Thanks.

  • Twiz

    Hey Doc,

    What do you think about this deal?

    I give: Jason Kidd and Gerald Wallace

    I receive: Tyreke Evans and David Lee

    If that’s a bad deal, the team I want to trade with also has Devin Harris, who I could switch out with Tyreke in the trade. Would that make it better for me? Thanks for the help, Doc.

  • celticmelt

    Heyy doc whats goin on,

    got offered this trade trynta see wut u think:

    my: jamal crawford, aaron brooks, david lee

    for his: pau, ibaka, and gilbert

    i cant decide if im givin up too much wit the prospect of brooks comin back 100% but i been hearing conflicting reports about his health thnx as always for your help

  • Winthrop Eagles Fan

    Hey Doc,

    Standard 9 cat league, H2H weekly-lineup league
    Roster
    Nash
    Eric Gordon
    Wilson Chandler
    Bogut
    Milicic
    Felton
    M. Gasol
    curry when he gets healthy
    Noah

    I tend to lose boards, to’s and points by a large margin every week but win 3’s, asts, blks, fg % by a large margin. and Ft% and stls are either way.

    I picked up both Kris Humphries and Taj Gibson following the Noah injury considering i have no other players with PF eligibility. Who would help me me more and who should i start? or does it depends on the number games they have that week?

  • jzsmoove

    my millsap, Jeff Green and Brandon Roy for Morrow, Howard and Stephen Kackson, good idea?

  • jzsmoove

    hahaa, Stephen Jackson…and doc, I got a speech impediment too.

  • jason

    Trade Udrih for Taj Gibson? in h2h standard 9 cat leagues

    My Team: Westbrook, Terry, Curry, Iguodala, KG, Duncan, Horford, Frye, Varejao, Billups, Udrih, Dunleavy, Lawson

  • jason

    Finally dropped Batum for mike dunleavy.
    Was it a bad idea? Dunleavy had another good game tonight and is playing very well even w/ rush. I just traded ariza for batum and I really wanted to keep him but he had 2 points and nothing else tonight and suffered a shoulder injury. Am I going to regret making this move?

    Also should I keep ty lawson? I also have billups. I’m thinking about dropping lawson for reggie will, battier, josh howard, or nick young

  • GSP

    Hi Doc,

    What to do with Troy Murphy? I hear rumours he will be dealt, but would he get enough playing time to warrant a waiver pickup? He is on the wires, and I gave guys like Trevor Ariza /Derrick Favours / Amir Johnson to part with

  • ManilaFTW

    Dr. Should i drop Landry Fields or Udrih for Drew Gooden? And i picked up Rashard, learning that he’s going to the Wizards. what do you think of that?

    My guards are all banged up, Wall and Rondo haven’t been healthy together all season long. Should I just punt assists for now and focus on the other cats? or should i find stop gaps for them? H2H, 9cats, 10teams.

    Thanks in advance as always.

  • The Mamba King

    Sup Doc?

    My team is still lacking in assists because of PGs like Harris,Brooks,Conley and Boobie. So im thinking of Dropping Antawn Jamison,a major producer when healthy, for another playmaker like Jose Calderon or DJ Augustine.Who do you think will sustain better numbers going forward, especially in the assists category and also overall play?

    and also, during the 1st month of the season or so, I traded away my 2nd overall pick in Rajon Rondo + Beno Udrih for Michael Beasley + Devin Harris + OJ Mayo (I dropped him already ofcourse) at first i was concerned that i got the low end of the deal,but now i think i got the better end of the trade because of Rondos injuries.What do you think about that trade and do you think i made the right move going forward into the season?

    as always you have been helpful thanks

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @WuMan: Both deals sound fine to me. I think you’re on the right track — target buy-low guys.

    @Twiz: I’d rather have Harris/Lee. It seems fine to me, though you’re selling low on Wallace.

    @celticmelt: Brooks will take some time to get back to 100 percent, but once he, Crawford and Lee heal up, I’d rather have your side.

    @Winthrop Eagles Fan: Once he’s healthy, I’d trust Gibson more — mostly because I don’t trust Avery Johnson. Gibson gets more blocks, too.

    @jzsmoove: I’m almost always in favor of a deal that allows you to dump Roy, and this is no different (assuming that Howard is Dwight). You could probably do better once Roy returns and puts together a decent line or two, but this is fine.

    @jason: I’m fine with that swap. Though Beno will have more reliable value later in the season, your team is pretty well-off with guards. I have no problem with the Dunleavy swap. I’d swap out Lawson or Dunleavy for Young.

    @GSP: I’d leave him alone until rumors get more solid.

    @ManilaFTW: It’s not a bad swap, but I don’t think it’s an urgent move. Lewis isn’t going to be any better than he has been, and could be worse. Punt for now, but find stopgaps if you can afford to drop dead weight.

    @The Mamba King: I like Calderon a bit better than Augustin, though his health is a concern. At the time it was a decent trade, but it’d be a better deal if you had kept Mayo, who’s starting to look like himself again.

  • Winthrop Eagles Fan

    Thanks for all the hard work, doc!