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Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Feb 22, 2011 / 11:30 am

Fantasy Trade Analysis: Carmelo Anthony To The Knicks

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony, Dime #53

After months of speculation, we can purge ourselves and our Twitter feeds of the nauseating(ly named) “Melodrama.” Late Monday night, a big-time three-team deal took place that finally sent Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks, among other things. There are many cogs to this machine, the trade is awaiting league approval, and the wheeling and dealing for some of these players isn’t done yet, but here’s a quick look at what we can expect in the aftermath from a fantasy perspective.

New York Knicks get: Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman and Corey Brewer

Anthony goes from being the No. 1 option in Denver to being 1a in New York, which isn’t too big a deal given the more open looks he’ll get with a force like Amar’e Stoudemire inside. The Knicks are putting up four more shots per game than the Nuggets this season, and since so many pieces were given up to acquire Anthony, his offensive prowess should remain mostly intact. He’ll also be asked to play more power forward. Expect a minor dip in points, and an uptick in rebounds, threes and turnovers. In other words, his overall value should remain pretty steady.

Billups goes from being limited to around 32 minutes a game in Denver to potentially playing upwards of 35 minutes a game in New York for coach Mike D’Antoni‘s high-octane offense. That said, Billups is a ripe 34 years old, and we’ve seen how D’Antoni’s short rotation has burned out his previous point guards in New York. While most of his stats should remain steady, fantasy owners should expect Billups to dish out more than the 5.3 assists he was averaging this season in Denver, but also more than his mark of 2.5 turnovers per game.

Stoudemire’s value remains mostly the same, though he won’t be the steady top-10 beast we’ve known him to be this season. His points could see a slight dip, but he should (and that’s the keyword) be freed up to do more work on the glass. The thing to watch here is whether Stoudemire will become less engaged now that he’ll have to share the spotlight and alpha-dog duties with ‘Melo.

Ronny Turiaf now stands to be the starting center for the Knicks, which is good news if taken in a vacuum. But given his frequent run-ins with injuries and D’Antoni’s inclination to play him limited minutes, Turiaf’s fantasy value remains limited.

Brewer should have his good streaks and his bad streaks in New York. Expect him to be nothing more than a waiver-wire yo-yo to monitor whenever you need a short-term fix.

Shawne Williams and Toney Douglas should be monitored and are decent speculative adds in deeper leagues.

Williams and Balkman will only have minor value if Stoudemire or Turiaf ever go down with injuries.

Denver Nuggets get: Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari and Timofey Mozgov

Felton will likely be dealt again before the trade deadline comes around, so keep an eye on his status. Wherever he lands, Felton’s fantasy value will suffer from playing in a non-Knicks offense.

Ty Lawson, consequently, stands to finally inherit the starting point guard spot in Denver. In six games as a starter this season, he’s averaged 15.5 points, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, six assists, a steal and 2.2 turnovers. Lawson also shot 52.2 percent from the field and 92.9 percent from the line in those starts. Assuming Felton is moved, Lawson is clearly a must-add player, and should even be a strong starter in most leagues.

Chandler’s ceiling is seriously lowered in Denver, assuming that frontcourt stands as is. Hold him if you own him and hope that some moves are made to free up some space for Chandler to produce on a consistent basis.

Gallinari, like Felton, is no lock to stick with the Nuggets. Regardless of where he ends up, his fantasy value is a bit deflated. If he lands in a favorable spot, he could retain much of his production, but his best fantasy days are behind him, for this season at least.

Arron Afflalo now has a chance to spread his wings in Denver. The jury’s still out on whether he can actually step into a more prominent role on offense, but at the very least the opportunity is there.

J.R. Smith also gets a shot at taking on a bigger role for the Nuggets, though expectations should be kept in check. At best, he’ll be an inconsistent fantasy asset. Smith could also be moved before the deadline passes, so monitor his situation.

Mozgov won’t be starting in Denver, which means he’s safe to leave on the waiver wire until further notice.

Minnesota Timberwolves get: Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry

Randolph returns to being an intriguing fantasy player and will probably cause some owners to make imprudent swaps. If you’re in a deeper league, feel free to take him on board and see how it plays out. Otherwise, leave him alone and let other owners waste a spot on him. He’s playing behind the likes of Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Darko Milicic and Wes Johnson. The name of the game for Randolph, once again, is “potential.”

Martell Webster looks like a sneaky winner here. He started his first game of the season right before the All-Star break and could hold onto that gig. At the very least, he’ll see more minutes now that Brewer is out of town. He’s worth adding in deeper leagues and monitoring closely in others.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • dagwaller

    Thoughts on Al Harrington?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @dagwaller: His value remains about the same in that crowded frontcourt, but the right deal could do him good. Keep an eye on him. If things stand as is, he’s still not too appealing.

  • Ashmit

    Doc,

    Quick Question – Brandon Roy or Tony Allen the rest of the way? Cheers.

  • dagwaller

    I traded away Brandon Jennings, who I thought was having a poor year, FOR Rudy Gay.

    What do you think? I’m beginning to have doubts, but I saw Jennings as an Agent 0/Billups (earlier this season)/Aaron Brooks type.

  • Ronald

    Doc,
    I’m trading away Felton and Roy for Wade and Bynum do you think this is a good trade for me?

    I have..
    Felton
    Mayo
    Kevin Martin
    Love
    Durant
    Brand
    Cousins
    David West
    Kidd
    Turkoglu
    AK47
    and I recently dropped Delfino for Ty lawson

    Thanks.

  • Ike

    Raymond Felton for Ron Artest… comeon Nuggets

  • GSP

    Sup Doc,

    Hope you have a great long weekend. Thank god the Meladrama is over. I was able to keep Lawson on my roster, but now I have a logjam at PG, with CP3 / Udrih / Gibson / RoddyB. I need depth at PF/C and was thinking of giving up Beno for Serge Ibaka. Do you think that this is semi-decent for me?

    GSP

  • http://waldorfandstatler.bandcamp.com DVS Jackson

    Doc…my weak link is SG. all the good ones are gone and the only ones available are combo guards i have to gamble on.

    Luke Ridnour, Leandro Barbosa and Ramon Sessions are the movable pieces (w/Salmons and Jrue as immovable)

    is Toney Douglas worth any of these in the face of this trade?

  • SJ

    Lawson is fair game in my league… if Felton gets traded, should I drop Aaron Brooks, Beno Udrih, or Richard Jefferson?

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Ashmit: Allen.

    @Ronald: Though Bynum is always a DNP risk, I dig that deal for you.

    @GSP: Good riddance to the Melodrama, indeed. I hope you enjoyed the All-Star weekend. I think that’s decent for you, though I suspect Udrih will thrive with Tyreke out for at least a spell. I’d rather give up Gibson or Roddy for Ibaka, but I don’t know if that’s possible or not.

    @DVS Jackson: I’d lean toward no. If you’re desperate, consider moving Barbosa for him.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @SJ: Probably RJ or Brooks.

  • GSP

    Hi Doc,

    Would you consider trading CP3, Marc Gasol, Troy Murphy for Josh Smith, Maggette and Elton Brand? I’m desperately trying to move one of my PG’s for value elsewhere. Does this deal make some sense? Only 4 weeks left in my fantasy league (so hard to wait on a guy like Troy)

  • DT

    Hey Doc so what about Landry Fields? Does his production go down/increase/or stay the same? I feel that his rebounding numbers may increase or stay the same but his points might take a dip and also his FG%

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @GSP: Yeah, that’s about fair. I wouldn’t wait on Brand, and though you’re selling a bit low on CP3, this is good enough.

    @DT: Fields should be just about what he’s been. No big change to note there.

  • nick

    I’m hearing they’re keeping Felton. This has GOT to be a bluff–or am I just holding on for wishful thinking’s sake?

  • scalabrine 4 mvp

    hey doc

    is it worth starting Noah tomorrow? really need rebounds and fg% also blcks and 3pm but they arent as important. will start 2 of these 3 centers frye, noah, hibbert

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @nick: Who knows at this point. The semi-good news is that while Felton will come off the bench for the Nuggets, coach Karl will play both Felton and Lawson together at some points.

    @scalabrine 4 mvp: Yeah, Noah sounds fine to start right away. He’s apparently in good shape, so especially if you need FG% and rebounds, go for it.