Fantasy Trade Analysis: NBA Offseason 2011

Jonny Flynn (Photo. Nicky Woo)
- Minnesota Timberwolves get Brad Miller, draft rights to pick No. 23 (Nikola Mirotic), pick No. 38 (Chandler Parsons) and a future first-round pick; Houston Rockets get Jonny Flynn and draft rights to pick No. 20 (Donatas Motiejunas)
Miller remains irrelevant for fantasy basketball purposes.
Flynn goes from a miserable sophomore campaign in Minnesota to being a backup to Kyle Lowry – a backup that has to contend with Goran Dragic for minutes. Don’t expect much to transpire from that situation for Flynn.
- Denver Nuggets get Andre Miller, draft rights to pick No. 26 (Jordan Hamilton) and a future second-round pick; Portland Trail Blazers get Raymond Felton and draft rights to pick No. 57 (Tanguy Ngombo); Dallas Mavericks get Rudy Fernandez and draft rights to pick No. 30 in 2007 (Petteri Koponento)
Miller will have a diminished role in Denver, where he’ll back up Ty Lawson. He sounds ready for that role, though we’ll have to see how it pans out in reality. In short, Miller’s days of getting 30+ minutes a night are done. Expect him to chip in some assists and solid shooting percentages, but not much beyond that.
Lawson’s stock does get a little boost from this deal, but not as big of a boost as one would have hoped from a Felton trade. He should still be chalked in as a top 50 pick next season.
Felton’s stock rises with his move to Portland. He’ll have full command of the point guard spot for the budding team and will have an easy time getting around 35 minutes a night. Expect his scoring and assists to increase from their marks in Denver.
Fernandez is much more intriguing in Dallas than he was in Portland. He’ll have a good shot at starting at shooting guard for the Mavs, though his minutes will still be limited by the presence of Jason Terry and DeShawn Stevenson. In four games as a starter last season, Fernandez averaged 14 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.7 threes. That’s probably around his ceiling in Dallas, though his averages will fall under those gaudy marks.
- Cleveland Cavaliers get Omri Casspi and a future first-round pick; Sacramento Kings get J.J. Hickson
Casspi will have a lot more playing time in Cleveland, where he’ll have a shot at a starting gig and a prominent role in the Cavs’ offense. In 27 games as a starter last season, Casspi averaged 10.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.6 threes in a little more than 31 minutes a game. He shouldn’t have much trouble approaching those averages in Cleveland, though his weak free-throw shooting (67 percent in his two seasons in the league) puts a damper on his overall fantasy appeal. Casspi’s arrival leaves Antawn Jamison’s fantasy value next season a bit puzzling.
Tristan Thompson is a big winner here, as the power forward spot is his for the taking. He’ll get a healthy dose of minutes and should be good for boards and blocks. However, his free-throw shooting (48.7 percent in his only year in college) is a big downer.
Hickson joins a full-fledged youth movement in Sac-town, which should be fun to watch at the very least. He was a bit of a roller coaster for much of last season, but finished strong and seemed to have finally figured out how to bang the boards. Hickson will have a smaller role playing alongside Cousins up front for the Kings, and his lack of blocks and steals seriously limits his fantasy value next season.
Cousins shouldn’t be too impacted by Hickson’s arrival. He’ll continue to develop next season and should still be a decent mid-to late-round pick in most leagues, especially now that Samuel Dalembert’s departure seems inevitable.
Throughout the offseason, feel free to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.
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