There are so many moving parts when ranking players for keeper leagues – ages, contracts, long-term prospects vs. immediate returns, the league’s expiration date and the unknowns that come with real-life basketball. Clearly, this task is more of an inexact science than cooking up the typical fare of preseason fantasy rankings for non-keeper leagues. This means readers would do well to grab a few grains of salt before reading this list, which is based on the assumptions that you’ll be committing to a nine-category, head-to-head keeper league in 2011-12 and at least two seasons beyond. In general, players who are 30-plus years old were excluded, save for a couple exceptions. Following each player’s name is what his age will be when (or if) the 2011-12 NBA season begins.
1. Kevin Durant (23): This is a no-brainer. Though he had a “quiet” 2010-11 campaign, Durant finished in a virtual deadlock with Chris Paul for the honor of being the best fantasy player in the land – this just a season after finishing in a similar tie with LeBron James for that distinction in 2009-10. While KD took steps back in the majority of the major statistical categories this past season from his prior season’s marks, his age, durability and big-time production make him a lock for the No. 1 pick in keeper and non-keeper leagues alike this fall.
2. Kevin Love (23): Love’s knack for racking up double-doubles, while impressive in and of itself, overshadowed his other strengths this past season – namely, his stellar shooting percentages from the field and free-throw line, and his ability to knock down 1+ threes a game. While his free-agency status after 2011-12 poses something of a minor question mark for his fantasy value, Love has shown himself to be a fantasy beast to be reckoned with for a number of seasons to come. If he can improve his thieving and blocking numbers, Durant and Love could vie for the top spot in fantasy drafts for many seasons to come.
3. Chris Paul (26): CP3’s averages this past season were fantastic, as expected. Nevertheless, he had his owners wringing their hands in late February and early March, when it began to look like his surgically repaired knee was slowing him down. He bounced back after going down for two games with a concussion, but that span of the season illustrates what Paul offers: big-time value that can be derailed at any moment by injuries. His vulnerability to injuries, especially related to his knee, and his age knocks him down below the two Kevins above.
4. LeBron James (26): Many fantasy owners (yours truly included) got a little too drunk on visions of triple-doubles from James in 2010-11. While no one really expected him to average a triple-double for the entire season, some of us figured that they’d come a lot more frequently for him in South Beach. Now that we’ve had the luxury of observing James in his new habitat, it’s clear that there’s a frustrating ceiling to his fantasy value as he plays alongside Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and company. That said, the resilient James remains one of the supreme fantasy assets in the NBA, and considering his age and the oft-banged-up Wade’s age (which will reach 30 next season), there’s still room for LBJ’s stats to rise in coming seasons.
5. Stephen Curry (23): Though Curry didn’t quite make the sophomore leap many expected him to make in 2010-11, he still managed to establish top 10 value, thanks in part to improvements in his field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage, points and turnovers. One important thing to consider is that Curry managed to pretty much stay the course despite playing nearly three fewer minutes per game, due to various injuries he endured throughout the season. The young guard still has room to grow, and if he can avoid the nicks and bruises he encountered this past season, Curry should have no problem staying in the echelon of top 10 status for a long time.
6. Al Horford (25): Horford didn’t disappoint owners who tagged him with high expectations last fall. The big man continues to make gradual strides in many areas. In fact, Horford has improve improved his field-goal percentage, assists and scoring in each of the three seasons since his rookie campaign in 2007-08. A quick look at his averages might not make much of an impression due to the fact that he’s never averaged a double-double for an entire season, but make no mistake – Horford is an elite fantasy player who will continue to make progress in his production. He’ll eventually crack that double-double mark, and if he can continue dishing out 3.5+ assists per game like he did this past season, there’s no telling what heights this Hawk is capable of flying to.
7. Deron Williams (27): Williams’ 2010-11 season was a mixed bag. Not only was he unexpectedly traded in February, but he also struggled through wrist and hand injuries that dragged down his overall value in the latter part of the season. Nevertheless, his ability to average 20 points a game, hit 1+ threes, shoot 80+ percent from the charity stripe, steal 1+ balls and dish out 10+ assists per game (even on a Nets squad that lacked many consistent offensive weapons) cements Williams as a solid keeper. He is the oldest of the top 10 listed here, but his ability to contribute in so many areas will help him to maintain strong value for seasons to come. A player who can hand out double-digit assists on a nightly basis is a wonderful luxury in fantasy basketball, and Williams is one of just a few guys able to offer that.
8. Derrick Rose (23): Rose made the leap that some doubted he could make this past season, lifting his points, threes made, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and free-throw percentage. With these improvements came drawbacks, namely a lower field-goal percentage and more turnovers per game, but they didn’t stop him from averaging top 20 numbers. There’s no doubt that Rose is a basketball player with monstrous talents. The question is how high his fantasy basketball ceiling is. Can he hit all those threes while shooting a better percentage from the floor? Can he balance his scoring prowess while dishing out an elite-level of assists per game? Those are the questions that highlight the areas in his production that may cap his fantasy value. Nevertheless, he’s young and talented enough to give owners reason for lots of optimism.
9. Dwight Howard (25): This past season Howard showed big improvements in his offensive arsenal, which came at very little cost to his strong field-goal percentage but resulted in more turnovers and free-throw attempts, a bad thing when you’re shooting under 60 percent from the line. Still, he was able to boost his rebounding and steals in 2010-11, and played nearly three more minutes per game, thanks in part to slight progress with his fouling issues. If you’re down for stomaching his weaknesses in order to benefit from his strengths in head-to-head leagues, the durable Howard is fine to take in the first round of keeper drafts. Just know that drafting other guys with better all-around value will give you an easier team to navigate.
10. Blake Griffin (22): Griffin began his NBA career with a very loud roar. Though his free-throw shooting limited his fantasy value, the rookie showed improvements in this area during latter parts of last season. While Griffin’s to-hell-with-it style of play is legitimate cause for concerns about his health, his sky-high potential is too good to pass up. He’s got the scoring and rebounding parts of his nailed down, and he even dished out around 3.5 assists per game, a huge bonus for his fantasy value. He’ll lift his free-throw percentage and improve his stealing and blocking numbers soon enough, which means Griffin’s set to offer great long-term fantasy value.
11. Russell Westbrook (22)
12. Josh Smith (25)
13. Eric Gordon (22)
14. Al Jefferson (26)
15. John Wall (21)
16. LaMarcus Aldridge (26)
17. Rudy Gay (25)
18. Joakim Noah (26)
19. Ty Lawson (23)
20. Monta Ellis (26)
21. Rajon Rondo (25)
22. Kyle Lowry (25)
23. Dorell Wright (25)
24. Amar’e Stoudemire (28)
25. Dwyane Wade (29)
26. Brook Lopez (23)
27. Serge Ibaka (22)
28. Paul Millsap (26)
29. Danilo Gallinari (23)
30. Andre Iguodala (27)
31. Pau Gasol (31)
32. David Lee (28)
33. Jrue Holiday (21)
34. Carmelo Anthony (27)
35. Dirk Nowitzki (33)
36. Greg Monroe (21)
37. Tyreke Evans (22)
38. James Harden (22)
39. Roy Hibbert (24)
40. Danny Granger (28)
41. Andray Blatche (25)
42. DeMarcus Cousins (21)
43. Mike Conley (24)
44. DeAndre Jordan (23)
45. Andrea Bargnani (26)
46. Chris Bosh (27)
47. JaVale McGee (23)
48. Marc Gasol (26)
49. Chase Budinger (23)
50. Michael Beasley (22)
On the cusp, in no particular order: Amir Johnson (24), Ryan Anderson (23), Marcus Thornton (24), D.J. Augustin (23), Luol Deng (26), Andrew Bynum (24), C.J. Miles (24), Anthony Morrow (26), Brandon Jennings (22), Nicolas Batum (22), Kevin Martin (28), Thaddeus Young (23), Landry Fields (23), Evan Turner (23), Raymond Felton (27), Jeff Teague (23), Andrew Bogut (26), DeJuan Blair (22), Ed Davis (22), J.J. Hickson (23)
What’s your squad looking like right now?
Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.
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