Dwight Howard (photo. adidas)

3. Orlando Magic
The New Guy That Counts: Glen Davis
Projected Starting Five: Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, Glen Davis, Dwight Howard

This team scares me, and not in a “Damn, if everything breaks right they could be really dangerous” way. It’s more like “Damn, if Dwight Howard isn’t focused, they will get bad very, very quickly.” I’m not alone in saying this, but no team relies more on one player than the Magic do with Dwight. When he’s playing like he did in Orlando’s preseason opener – 2-for-9 from the field, five points, six rebounds, 17 scowls, countless instances of boredom and aloofness – the Magic have the look of a lottery team. Besides Howard, they have no size and no big-time scorers. Their best players are all either past their prime (Richardson, Turkoglu) or struggle with size issues (Nelson, Davis).

Orlando has survived the Howard era with three-point shooting and extremely underrated defense. All of that stems from the big man dominating in the middle. It’s not that the supporting cast is bad. Jameer Nelson is a gamer and someone you can go to war with. Ryan Anderson is the perfect backup forward on this team. But Hedo Turkoglu, not so much. We’re not sure who convinced Otis Smith that the Turkoglu they were getting last year was the same dude who left in 2009. He got fleeced. He’s not the same player, not even close. And count me as someone who’s pissed seeing Jason Richardson in Disney World. He was on my fantasy team last year, killing it in Phoenix (19.3 points a game). Then he ended up in Orlando and couldn’t even muster up 14 a night in blue and white. His minutes went up but his shots went down.

Howard’s best help may come from Ryan Anderson at times this year. Contrary to what many bloggers will tell you, that’s not a good thing. Forget Stan Van Gundy. Forget about the white chalk outline of Hedo. The bench isn’t game-changing, so forget about Chris Duhon, Earl Clark and J.J. Redick. The Magic’s season will come down to how far into this thing Dwight Howard wants to push himself. I guess that makes it simple then.

BEST CASE: Dwight Howard stays loyal and is somehow hypnotized to believe this is a title team. They somehow get homecourt advantage in the playoffs and then somehow win a round.
WORST CASE: Howard doesn’t care enough to be fully engaged, then gets traded, then the team falls off a cliff, everyone gets blamed and the franchise slinks to the edge of irrelevance.

2. Atlanta Hawks
The New Guys That Count: Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmanovic
Projected Starting Lineup: Jeff Teague, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Al Horford

I’ve never been a big Hawks guy. Forever solid but never special, they’ve capped themselves out as a second round team. With the East looking tougher than it has since MJ hung them up in Chicago, I doubt they even get there this year.

The Hawks are like a bootleg soda: It’s satisfying and sometimes looks (or tastes) amazing. You get the same carbonated kick, the same sugary high. But in the long run, it just doesn’t feel right. Maybe there’s an aftertaste that just fizzles a little too much or you simply hate the logo, colors and name. It doesn’t feel like the real deal. You need the brand name. On some nights, the Hawks look like they can play with anyone in the league. Horford too athletic for other fives, Smith making all types of insanely athletic plays, Johnson smoother than the Temptations. At times, it might be for only a quarter or even a quick eight minute stretch. But the Hawks can put makeup on and make themselves look like runway material. Their in-between players (Horford, Smith, Johnson) are as good as anyone. It’s all going to come down to Teague.

When Atlanta typically does fall into their problems, they usually come from too much isolation, an offense that’s too predictable. In past years, that came about because Johnson was their de facto lead guard and as the team’s best one-on-one player, he found himself alone on the wing with the ball and 15 seconds on the shot clock. Teague needs to be the liaison during those moments to get the ball moving again.

BEST CASE: Teague emerges and takes control for a team in search of direction (Are they going to be stuck in-between contender and lottery forever?), all of their starters who had down years last year come back spry, healthy and skinny. The Hawks do what they always do: get to the second round and then lose.
WORST CASE: No one steps up to play the center spot. Teague regresses and shows last year’s playoff run was a fluke and Joe Johnson’s game continues to fall apart.

1. Miami Heat
The New Guys That Count: Shane Battier, Norris Cole
Projected Starting Five: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Joel Anthony

At this point last season, the amount of attention focused in South Beach and the tracing of Miami’s prospects was unhealthy. We were all basketball doctors, all had an idea of why it wouldn’t work or why they would win title after title. Now that the initial excitement has worn off – we’ve all come to grips with knowing the two best players in the NBA both play in red and black – Miami can do what they came together to do: win.

Just on paper, the signing of Battier, the healthy return of Udonis Haslem (Who is NO ONE talking about this?) and the speed of Cole will help boost a bench that was Casper-invisible at times last year. That stuff doesn’t really worry me about them. It’s the constant questions about how LeBron will stand up to the pressure that’ll weigh them down. If James could answer the critics in December, it would be amazing and uplifting. Alas, he has to go all year, make it all the way there and then play the best he’s ever played to truly get over the hump. Even with Wade and Bosh at his side, that’s not easy.

So LeBron doesn’t want to be the villain? He should accept it, get his Christian Bale on, don the black and face his fears. It’s the only way he’ll overcome the demons that’ll surely trail him all season.

As for the rest of Miami, Wade is in better shape than ever before, Bosh is mentally as focused as he’s ever been, and the supporting cast is rounding into shape quicker than I think anyone could’ve expected.

BEST CASE: Championship. LeBron shows out in the Finals and starts his upward trajectory back towards the Golden Child.
WORST CASE: Questions go unfulfilled in the playoffs. The Heat feel the pressure and it hits a tipping point in the playoffs. The train of doubt gets moving faster and faster and Miami ends up with another long offseason.

What do you expect out of this division? Does anyone have a chance of catching Miami?

Follow Sean on Twitter at @SEANesweeney.

Follow Dime on Twitter at @DimeMag.

Become a fan of Dime Magazine on Facebook HERE.