Dirk Nowitzki (photo. Nike Basketball)

3. Memphis Grizzlies
The New Guys That Matter: Dante Cunningham, Jeremy Pargo, Josh Selby
Projected Starting Five: Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol

Oh, it pains me to put this team third in its own division. Potentially, I think they have what it takes to go deeper than they did last year. They’ve shown they own San Antonio, and with Dallas being as weak as ever upfront, I can’t see them matching up with the Bash Brothers. But this is for the regular season, and in the regular season, you have ups and downs, players going for numbers, bad luck turning into Achilles tendon tears (oh my, Darrell Arthur) and the disease of more. On paper, this could be the best starting five in the game. In real life, I’m waiting for something to screw it all up.

Besides Gay’s injury, Memphis had so many things go right for them last year – Gasol and Randolph never getting hurt or even having a rough patch of games, Allen having the best year of his life, Conley playing better than he ever has – that you either have to assume they all turned a corner at the same time or figure it was a meeting of the comets. I’m not saying it can’t happen again. But almost inevitably, they’ll take a small step back this season.

Rudy Gay told me all summer his return won’t hurt anything. But no matter what he says, the framework of last season will be disrupted. You’re working in a 20-point scorer, possibly a future All-Star back into your lineup. That’ll take time.

And we’re talking regular season. The Grizzlies are built for seven-game marathon series. They should still get a shot at those this spring.

BEST CASE: The magic continues. Gay flows seamlessly back into the lineup, and everyone is content with the same roles they had last year. The team gets favorable playoff matchups and advances all the way to the West Finals.
WORST CASE: Problems arise almost from the start as everyone wants something: a little more PT, a few more shots, some more respect. Just as Gay comes back, they lose someone else to a major injury and struggle to stay in the playoff race.

2. San Antonio Spurs
The New Guys That Matter: Kawhi Leonard, T.J. Ford
Projected Starting Five: Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, DeJuan Blair

Even at their old age, these bachelors continue to hit up clubs and pick up chicks they have no business copping numbers from. Weren’t they supposed to be done five years ago? Well, when you really sit down and look at the roster, outside of Duncan and Manu, it’s very young and very athletic.

They won’t match last season’s pace for a number of reasons, but most importantly because there’s just no way they can keep it up. I don’t believe they were as good as their record advertised last season and the same situation – rolling up a high seed before getting upset in the playoffs – could happen again. Gregg Popovich will manage his stars through all of these back-to-back-to-back sets and will almost certainly forfeit games here and there (One way I could see the Grizz finishing ahead of them).

But they still have Ginobili, whose winning spirit – *cliché alert – pushes them over the top 10-15 times a year. There’s just something about him. Even the worst Denzel movie is at least watchable because he makes everything seem genuine. Ginobili always gives his team a shot at winning. Memphis, to me, is the better team. But I’ll side with San Antonio’s consistency. Whether they go for wins or not, the Spurs just have a habit of finishing with a great record. Just like the habit I have of talking in clichés when I write about them.

BEST CASE: Popovich has the best coaching season of his career, Parker doesn’t get into any more off-the-court disagreements with teammates and the Spurs rid their consistency in a season of unknown all the way to the West Finals.
WORST CASE: Duncan’s legs give out, Parker finally gets dealt and it screws up the team’s chemistry, and the condensed schedule puts San Antonio in a major bind. They start the playoffs on the road and are gone sooner than the liquor at Charlie Sheen’s holiday party.

1. Dallas Mavericks
The New Guys That Matter: Lamar Odom, Delonte West, Vince Carter
Projected Starting Five: Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Brendan Haywood

Remember that one year where the Mavs finally ditched the offensive juggernaut thing and became a staunch, hard-nosed, defensive unit that capitalized on everyone else’s mistakes and protected their own paint? That team just won a championship right? Well now that team is gone. Some of it is in New Jersey. The rest is in New York, Minnesota and Los Angeles. Instead, they have Carter (about the last person you’d want playing defense), Odom (who is more versatile than he is staunch) and West (too crazy to lean on in big moments).

Mark Cuban has laid out his master plan for everyone to see, and while it could pay off in the future, for right now the Mavs will have to defend their title in an entirely new way. Haywood is strong around the rim, and a better-than-average shot blocker. But he’s not the athlete nor the energy man that Chandler is.

For Dallas, this season will be a mental test. How bad do they really want it? The second time is always harder than the first, and for the Mavs, not having some of their leading men from last year will only make it more difficult. Team after team have tried to rely on VC and it hasn’t worked out. Odom was phenomenal in L.A. when he had Kobe and Pau besides him. But how will he react to having a bigger role here? And can any of their young players step up and fill the void left by DeShawn Stevenson and J.J. Barea?

BEST CASE: Mere mortals bow in the presence of Dirk while their offensive versatility proves too difficult to defend without much time in-between games to study it. Dallas plays in the shadows for most of the year before making a run at the end of the regular season and carrying it all the way to another championship.
WORST CASE: They fall off in much the same way the 2007 Heat did after winning a title. Too much turnover, too much offense and very little defense brings them to their knees in a first round exit. They don’t have that same itch, that desperation for the title like they did last year and it shows almost right from the start.

Does Memphis have what it takes to win this division? Are the Mavs better this year than last year?

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