Why A Condensed NBA Schedule Poses A Threat To Veteran Teams

Throughout the NBA lockout, David Stern said repeatedly that he and the owners would be willing to lose the season if that is what it took to get what they deemed to be a “fair” deal. While those claims by Stern would most likely have come to fruition if the two sides didn’t come to a last-minute agreement, once a deal was in place, Stern wanted to maximize the number of games played this season. It was announced that the NBA would have a 66-game season this year stretching from Christmas Day until the end of April.

During a regular NBA season, teams usually open their training camps sometime during the last week of September. They then play about six or seven preseason games throughout the month of October before opening the regular season at the end of the month. This month between when training camp opens and when games begin allows players to get in game shape and prepare for the rigors of an 82-game schedule. However, this year there will be just over two weeks between the start of training camp and Opening Day. At this point most of the players are not close to game shape, and many may be simply out of shape – and having two weeks to get players ready for a season is just simply not enough time. Their bodies will struggle to adjust that quickly, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some sloppy basketball in the first few weeks.

While the limited training camp time is a concern for the players, the biggest test they will face is the sheer number of games they will have to play in a condensed period of time. Every team in the NBA will have to play a back-to-back-to-back set at some point this season, and according to a tweet from Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski on Sunday night, “One league official says there are seven NBA teams that have two stretches of five games in six nights this season.”

Playing that type of schedule will be brutal, even for some of the world’s best athletes. Most teams look sluggish on the second day of a back-to-back, so imagine how exhausting it will be for teams to play three games in a row, or five games in six days. I think the condensed schedule provides a huge advantage to younger teams this season, and teams with a small window to win a championship (Boston, San Antonio, and Dallas come to mind) will be significantly disadvantaged when compared to younger squads.

Over the past few seasons, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has had the strategy of limiting his stars’ minutes over the course of the regular season in order to keep them fresh for the playoffs. He frequently has held Tim Duncan out of games on the second night of back-to-backs in order for him to rest his balky knees, and has done a good job of monitoring the minutes of Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker as well. However, this year Popovich may have to rethink that strategy. With the Spurs and every team playing more back-to-backs than in previous seasons, will Popovich be able to sit Duncan on the second night of back-to-backs anymore? Let’s say the Spurs have 18 back-to-backs which is 36 games played on consecutive days. How many of those can Popovich afford to have Duncan sit, especially in the ultra-competitive Western Conference? And that is not even taking into account games Duncan might have to miss because of an injury.

The same thing can be said of the Celtics and Mavericks. In years past, when a veteran player like Kevin Garnett got injured, the Celtics might be slow to bring him back knowing that they would make the playoffs so they might as well get him healthy for that time. This year the Celtics can’t afford to do that. With a shorter schedule, the competition for playoff spots will be much tighter than it would be during an 82-game season. Veteran teams like the Celtics, who two years ago played like they were on cruise control just waiting for the postseason, won’t be able to do that this year. Talent alone is not enough to get you to the playoffs in a shortened season.

On the other end of the spectrum, teams loaded with young talent will have an advantage in the condensed season. Younger players (other than Greg Oden) tend to be more durable and able to sustain playing more minutes than older players, and younger teams will experience the benefits of that this year. A team like the Grizzlies, with a core of Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol (all signs point to him returning), and Rudy Gay, will be able to absorb the condensed schedule more than the veteran teams mentioned above. Other teams, like the Heat, Bulls, Hawks, and Thunder with young cores will also likely have success and be seeded higher than some veteran teams.

So while at the end of the day, it is likely that the eight most talented teams from each conference will make the playoffs this year, the scheduling advantage provided to younger teams cannot be ignored. With that advantage comes the fact that the nonchalant attitude we have seen toward the regular season by some playoff teams in the past few years will likely be diminished this season, as every game takes on a little more importance.

What problems do you see with the NBA’s 66-game schedule?

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