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Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Jan 19, 2012 / 10:30 am

Daily Fantasy Basketball Diagnosis: 1.19

Monta Ellis (photo. Bethany Gilbert)

Monta Ellis (photo. Bethany Gilbert)

Beast of the Night: Monta Ellis put up 30 points, one rebound, five assists, six steals and a block, and hit two three-pointers last night against the Nets. He shot 55 percent (11-20) from the field, 86 percent (6-7) from the free-throw line and had three turnovers. Ellis is having a solid season for the most part, especially if your league doesn’t count field-goal percentage (41 percent) and turnovers (3.9 per game). Even when Stephen Curry returns, Ellis’ value should remain intact.

Lines for Discussion:
Dwight Howard: 9-15 FG (60%), 6-10 FT (60%), 24 Pts, 25 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 3 Blk, 2 TO; Dwight being Dwight. His fantasy value is improved from last season, mostly thanks to his more frequent assists (2.4 per game versus 1.4 last season) and less frequent turnovers (3.3 per game versus 3.6 last season).

Andre Miller: 12-20 FG (60%), 1-2 FT (50%), 3 threes, 28 Pts, 8 Reb, 10 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO; Despite coming off the bench, Miller has been a pretty valuable fantasy asset this season, averaging 10.5 points, 3.5 ‘bounds, 6.4 dimes, 1.3 thefts and 0.5 treys, along with decent shooting percentages.

Serge Ibaka: 3-5 FG (60%), 6 Pts, 10 Reb, 1 Stl, 2 Blk, 3 TO; Believe it or not, this was Ibaka’s first time grabbing double-digit rebounds this season. His limited minutes have dogged his fantasy value in 2011-12, but there’s a good chance Ibaka recovers some of his lost value during the remainder of the season.

John Wall: 6-17 FG (35%), 13-14 FT (93%), 25 Pts, 7 Reb, 8 Ast, 3 TO; He appears to be finding his footing again. While struggles with his shooting from the field and ability to hit three-pointers will weigh his fantasy value down, Wall will be a guy you’ll want on your side during most weeks.

Andray Blatche: 5-12 FG (42%), 1-2 FT (50%), 1 three, 12 Pts, 10 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 Blk, 4 TO; Solid line from Blatche, which means it’s time for his owners to sell high. His shoulder remains a concern, so owners should look to swap him for a safer long-term asset.

Deron Williams: 6-13 FG (46%), 8-8 FT (100%), 4 threes, 24 Pts, 8 Reb, 10 Ast, 4 TO; Williams has struggled this season, averaging a career-low field-goal percentage (37 percent) and dishing out 8.4 assists per game, his lowest mark since his rookie campaign. He’s also turning the ball over a league-worst 4.3 times per game.

Marc Gasol: 10-14 FG (71%), 2-3 FT (67%), 22 Pts, 12 Reb, 7 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 4 TO; Gasol has grabbed 10+ rebounds in all 10 games so far in January. He remains a fantasy stud and maintains top 10 overall value.

DeAndre Jordan: 9-13 FG (69%), 1-1 FT (100%), 19 Pts, 9 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 5 Blk, 1 TO; Jordan is obviously still rather raw, but his owners don’t have much to complain about. While another rebound or two per game would be nice, Jordan’s out of his mind when it comes to blocking shots, as he’s averaging a league-leading 3.1 denials per game. He’s a top 50 fantasy player right now.

Waiver-Wire Watch:
Trevor Ariza: 18 Pts, 5 Reb, 7 Ast, 4 Stl, 1 Blk, 5 TO; He might’ve been dropped in your league after missing a ton of games, but Ariza deserves to be picked up in all leagues.

Markieff Morris: 3 Pts, 2 Stl; He left the game early because he was sick, but Morris started last night and could start for the foreseeable future.

Nikola Pekovic: 11 Pts, 1 Reb, 2 Stl, 1 Blk, 4 TO; He started the second half last night and is worth a gamble in deeper leagues.

Evan Turner: 20 Pts, 11 Reb, 2 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO; Make sure he’s not available in your league.

Mickael Pietrus: 12 Pts, 4 threes, 3 Reb, 1 Stl; If you need threes, scoop him up.

Shannon Brown: 14 Pts, 2 threes, 2 Reb, 1 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO; He’s looked solid in January and deserves consideration if you need a guard.

Zaza Pachulia: 5 Pts, 11 Reb, 1 Blk, 1 TO; If you need a big man, Pachulia should be on your list of candidates.

Tayshaun Prince: 29 Pts, 3 threes, 3 Reb, 2 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 1 TO; He’s Hansel right now and should be picked up if you have room.

Francisco Garcia: 16 Pts, 2 threes, 5 Reb, 2 Stl, 1 Blk, 1 TO; That’s two consecutive solid outings for Garcia, who’s worth a speculative add if you need threes.

Mo Williams: 26 Pts, 2 threes, 1 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO; He should probably be owned in your league.

Injuries:
Vince Carter (foot): day-to-day

Rudy Fernandez (Achilles): day-to-day

Eddy Curry (hip): could be ready for tonight

Dwyane Wade (ankle): day-to-day

Jason Richardson (knee): day-to-day

Hedo Turkoglu (back): day-to-day

Spencer Hawes (Achilles): day-to-day; could miss an extended stretch of games

Marcus Camby (ankle): day-to-day

Andrea Bargnani (calf): may be ready for Sunday

Jamaal Tinsley (dermatitis): monitor his status

Josh Howard (quad): likely out tonight

Timofey Mozgov (back): day-to-day

Rajon Rondo (wrist): left last night’s game early; day-to-day

Bill Walker (knee): day-to-day

Markieff Morris (flu): day-to-day

Nicolas Batum (eye): should be fine for Friday, but monitor his status

For Tonight:
Mario Chalmers should have another solid night, as the Heat host the Lakers. Also, see if Mike Miller can have a strong follow-up to his season debut.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • http://deleted dagwaller

    Doc – somehow, Luis Scola is ranked like 246 in my league. This is the same league in which I drafted Curry and Gordon 2nd and 3rd, respectively. It hasn’t been a good season, lol.

    Anyway, am I safe to drop Scola? It’s a 10 team league, so there’s plenty of talent on the waiver (top ranked FAs are Ridnour, D Wright, and Redick all in the top 70). I just have no clue how Scola could possibly be ranked so low.

  • http://deleted dagwaller

    Oh, and is Danny Green a safe swap for Gerald Henderson? Ranked MUCH higher, but I’m afraid someone will snatch Henderson up and when Manu returns, I’ll regret the move.

    Then again, Kemba Walker moved to SG recently, right? THEN AGAIN, Henderson is still averaging over 3o mgp.

    I’ve gone cross-eyed.

  • NTstateOFmind

    hey doc- who do you think has more upside between Derrick Favors and Trevor Booker?

  • Danny

    Hey doc-

    I don’t know anything about basketball or fantasy basketball, so please do all my thinking for me, even more than just giving us a helpful and well-written daily article.

    Just kidding…

    If I needed to ask you who had more upside between Derrick Favors and Trevor Booker, I’d just delete my fantasy team and start watching the world series of poker every night.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @dagwaller: Well, if you covered his name and looked at his stat line, you’d expect him to be a waiver-wire yo-yo. He turns the ball over 2.6 times and dishes out 1.6 assists, and he doesn’t steal or block much. Also, his FG% isn’t all that impressive. I wouldn’t see a problem swapping him out for Wright or Ridnour. Scola’s name > his numbers. Henderson is fine to swap for, though his lack of threes limits his appeal.

    @NTstateOFmind: Favors.

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Danny: …not gonna say anything.

  • YUP

    Doc,

    Ridnour or B. Knight?

  • EL_Guro

    Sup doc?

    I play H2h 10team 9cats league
    This my team:

    Wade,Deron,Conley,Teague
    Gay,Turkoglu,Ryan Anderson,Varejao
    Monroe, Blatche,Bynum,Ibaka

    I think i need more assists, so should i drop turk and stash Baron Davis?
    The drop off in 3s shouldnt hurt too much because baron also makes a few 3s per game,and also Baron in the D’antoni system sounds like fantasy success. What do you think? And how does my team look to you?

    Thanks

  • http://Willy Willy

    Hey Doc,

    Do you think Andre Miller will see 30+ min with solid lines for the rest of the season? or is he just seeing a boost since R.Fernandez is out?

    Should I drop someone like P.George to pick him up?

    Thanks again,
    Willy

  • http://Willy Willy

    sorry, one more for you.

    do you think it would be worth it to drop C.Kaman for M.Morris? Kaman has had some good games, but his minutes are dropping now that Smith has started in the Hornets lineup

    thanks,
    Willy

  • nbaman

    Doc,

    Should I give up on Devin Harris? Pick up Mo Williams or Markeef Morris, or Tayshaun? I have Brandon Knight as well who is expendable.

    Thanks!

  • IGP

    Hey Doc,

    Should I drop Derozen for Ridnour, Ariza, Reddick, Beasly or Thad Young?

    I dominate boards and points, but I really need FG% and 3’s. Should I just keep Derozen and hope he gets it going?

  • juanronin

    Doc;
    What do yopu think of Jared Dudley? Hold or drop?

  • stunnaz

    kyle lowry for lamarcus alridge is it worth it?

    granger,tyreke and hawes for ellis and deng.

    are those trades fair? who wins?

  • Duck

    Any free agents I should swap out for Doc?
    Some of the players you mentioned on your waiver wire are free. For example, I’m just worried about Evan Turner’s consistency.

    http://games.espn.go.com/fba/freeagency?leagueId=1741&teamId=4

    Droppables = Jrue, Parsons, Kemba

  • http://Willy Zippy

    Hey Doc,

    Marshon Brooks has been BALLIN! He’s played 40min in the last two games. Should I drop P.George to scoop him up?

    Thanks,
    Zippy

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @YUP: Knight if you don’t care about turnovers; Ridnour if you do.

    @EL_Guro: No, Hedo’s too valuable so far to just drop, even in a 10-team league. Your team looks fine to me — not sure you need to be too worried about assists, but Davis will help you there. His FG% and health will hurt though. I’d stay steady for now.

    @Willy: I don’t think he’ll see 30+ minutes. He was fairly solid before Rudy went down, so I think he’ll remain a top 80 guy. I’d rather have PG though. I have no problem with swapping Kaman for Morris.

    @nbaman: I don’t blame anyone for giving up on Harris at this point. I’d go with either of those guys — Prince, Morris and Mo, in that order. Go with Morris if you’re feeling up for a riskier bet with a higher ceiling.

    @IGP: Given your needs, I’d swap out DeRozan for Ridnour or Redick, in that order.

    @juanronin: Drop if there’s someone worthy of a pickup.

    @stunnaz: It depends on your needs, but overall I’d rather have Lowry in the first one — it’s fair though. In thesecond, I’d rather have Ellis and Deng — sort of fair, but fool’s gold if the owner takes the three for his two.

    @Duck: Nothing is a must-make move there. Kemba for Turner is a consideration though.

    @Zippy: He is, isn’t he? That swap sounds fine to me.

  • Popo

    Hey Doc,

    What is up with Monty Williams in NO?? Carl Landry’s apparently been put on minutes exile..

    I’m strongly considering dropping him for Parsons..

  • IGP

    Thanks Doc!

  • asdf

    Hey doc,

    Who’s more important in the short and long term to you: Derrick Favors or Markieff Morris? I dropped Morris after his last crappy few games and decided to stash Favors instead. But then Millsap is balling out of his mind so now I’m worried about Favor’s overall value for the future. When Favors plays, he usually grabs a good amount of rebs and blocks. Morris, to me, seems like a wild roller coaster even if he’s bound to start.

    Thanks

  • http://dimemag.com/author/the-fantasy-doctor/ The Fantasy Doctor

    @Popo: Yep, definitely in the doghouse. I have no issues with swapping him out at this point.

    @asdf: Morris for both.