Fantasy Doctor, NBA / Feb 10, 2012 / 1:00 pm

Buy Low, Sell High: Fantasy Basketball Week 7

Derrick Rose

Derrick Rose (photo. adidas)

Buy Low:
Derrick Rose has produced just 10 points, five rebounds, six assists and one steal in his last two games. His back is aching him, which is part of the reason why he only played a total of about 33 minutes in those two games. Clearly, Rose’s fantasy value has taken a hit with this latest setback, just as we were forgetting about his bum toe. He could be playing at less than 100 percent for the foreseeable future, but with All-Star weekend about two weeks away, recovered health shouldn’t be too far away.

Chris Bosh has been a shell of himself in his last six games, a stretch where he’s averaged 12.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 0.8 steals, while shooting 41 percent from the floor. This cold spell coincides almost exactly with Dwyane Wade‘s return from his ankle injury in late January. Bosh, who remains a top 30 fantasy player this season, will find another groove soon enough, so owners in need of an efficient big man should buy him on the cheap while they can.

Kevin Martin has hit just four of his 24 shot attempts in his last three games. In that stretch, he’s accumulated just 14 points, six rebounds, and 11 assists – no threes, no steals and no blocks. Martin also failed to log more than 18 minutes in two of his last four games. It’s a miserable stretch, indeed, but that also means his fantasy value has reached a low point. When healthy, Martin is a very reliable source of points, threes and free-throw help.

Brandon Jennings had his hot streak snapped last Saturday, and in his last three games he’s amassed just 22 points, 10 rebounds, 13 assists, two threes and one steal. His fall back to reality isn’t too surprising, but it would be a big surprise if Jennings wasn’t able to get on another hot streak sooner than later. If you need a point guard and don’t mind a weak percentage from the field, this is your buy-low target.

Mo Williams has cooled off in his last two games after a hot streak that lasted from the middle of January through the beginning of this month. While he looks likely to remain a sixth man for the Clippers, Chauncey Billups‘ absence for the rest of the season opens the door for Williams to continue carrying a sizable portion of his team’s offensive duties. He’ll find his shot again and will be a valuable asset once he does.

Carmelo Anthony, Danilo Gallinari, Kyrie Irving and any other productive fantasy players who are injured should be considered buy-low candidates.

Sell High:
Tony Parker has racked up 100 points and 24 assists in his last three games. But with Manu Ginobili‘s likely return this weekend, Parker’s minutes and, consequently, fantasy value will dip. This sell-high recommendation is an urgent one.

Jason Richardson has finally strung together some decent games. Maybe most importantly, he’s nailed three three-pointers in each of his last four games. That said, his knee and overall consistency are still not to be trusted this season. His owners should try to sell him off to someone who needs threes, and get more reliable value in return.

Kemba Walker has seen his averages rise a bit since D.J. Augustin started missing games with an inflamed toe. However, with Augustin set to return as early as Monday, Walker’s value will take a hit soon. While he’ll remain a usable all-around producer, this will mean his awful field-goal percentage will be all the more burdensome for his owners. This weekend will be the last chance to test the market before the rookie sees his minutes and production cut down again.

DeMar DeRozan has found himself again lately. He’s scored in double digits in each of his last four games (yes, an accomplishment given his recent woes) and most recently turned in a 25-point performance, which came with a side of four three-pointers. His owners shouldn’t let his recent appeal blind them to his weak fantasy appeal, thanks mostly to his poor accuracy from the field and lack of threes. DeRozan is a nickel that might be able to fetch a dime right now.

Jeremy Lin has been a top 25 stud in his last three games. He’s got everyone in the world rooting for him, especially his fortunate fantasy owners. But there are too many hurdles in his future to allow this level of production to continue: the return of Amar’e Stoudemire, the return of Carmelo Anthony, the eventual debut of Baron Davis in a Knicks uniform and smarter defenses. This isn’t to say Lin won’t stick on fantasy rosters the rest of the way; rather, it’s just a warning for his current owners to take a shot of reality and test the market to see what he can get them.

Throughout the season, be sure to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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  • http://Willy Willy

    Hey Doc,

    In a 8team H2H league who is better to own. Kemba Walker, Marshon Brooks, or JR Smith?

    Thanks,
    Willy

  • kevin

    do u think al harrington is a sell high? i think his age will catch up with him eventually. no way he shoots 50% for the season plus wilson chandler should be back in the mix soon

  • 12thman

    Hey Doc, what should we look for if we’re trying to sell high on Lin?