Ranking The Other 11 Olympic Teams’ Potential Of An American Upset

I’m riding on a wave of “Dream Team” nostalgia. In June, the documentary chronicling the 1992 team’s dominance and effect on how basketball was played around the world made anyone connected to the game yearn for a good old fashioned showdown between national teams. After 66 games of fighting against each other, I want to see our American stars pool together — especially if this is one of the last times NBA stars play in international competition, per David Stern‘s several recent hints. Mostly, though, it’s because try as I might to forget it, the 2002 World Championships and 2004 Olympics changed the games to where every tournament has a fear of failure. You remember, right? In 2002, the U.S. was sixth; in 2004 the bronze medal was the team’s ceiling. I’m sure that Mike Krzyzewski has a scouting report ready for each of the 11 other teams who will play in the London Olympics that start late this month, but just in case I ranked each team by its potential to upset the U.S.

The criteria — FIBA rank, intangibles (ex: is Pau Gasol having a good day or a bad day?), player to watch — all coalesces into an unscientific metric I’ll call the Argentina Meter, with 1 being the best chance, and 11 the worst. Argentina was the first to beat a U.S. team comprised of professionals back in 2002 and probably caused USA Hoops boss Jerry Colangelo nightmares for several years after.

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GREAT BRITAIN
FIBA rank: 75
How it got here: Host country’s privilege.
Argentina Meter: 11

It’s the first time sine 1948 the Brits are fielding a team, which is just as sad as when Greece threw together a baseball team in 2000 out of castoff college players and Kevin Youkilis. This team is statistically worse than Sri Lanka, Macedonia and the Virgin Islands. A Virgin Islands team without Tim Duncan. Ben Gordon and Byron Mullens said “eh, no thanks” to his own nation in its own Olympics, and if you can think of a less patriotic thing to do — especially when there’s not exactly a line of NBA players waiting to play behind you like the U.S. — I’d like to hear it. We apologize in advance for Luol Deng, who’s going to look bad as the Empire’s only NBA player.



TUNISIA
FIBA rank: 38
How it got here: Via the FIBA Africa Championship.
Argentina Meter: 10

There’s a dearth of highlights online of Tunisia’s basketball standard bearers, but Coach K will have an easy time watching their celebration strategies (good at dancing, singing needs a little work) but it wouldn’t matter, anyway, if they didn’t have a single clip of film. The African Championship winners are led by Macram Ben Romdhane, a 23-year-old 6-8 forward who plays club ball in Tunisia. They did win a FIBA championship, which is why they’re above Britain. However, I have this nagging feeling that’s just not going to cut it against the Americans.


FRANCE
FIBA rank: 8
How it got here: Via Eurobasket tournament.
Argentina Meter: 9

Les Bleus are not going to be healthy enough to hang with an American team, not without Joakim Noah (hurt and out) or Tony Parker (recovering cornea and bruised ego from bar fight collateral damage) being either out or not 100 percent. Nicolas Batum will be a nice add, but how much has he been working out with France while he navigated his back-and-forth negotiations with Portland and Minnesota? Every piece of team harmony will need to fire right to beat the U.S., which France opens with. Bonjour, beatdown.

Here’s a France highlight video set to Macklemore.



CHINA
FIBA rank: 10
How it got here: Via FIBA’s Asia Championship.
Argentina Meter: 8

The Asian champions won’t be in the American’s Group A, but beating them in knockout play isn’t going to happen. Yi Jianlian and Wang Zhizhi are castoff big men who wilted before in front of NBA competition; who says it will change now? They beat an inferior Jordan team to reach the Olympics but won’t be able to hang in London.



BRAZIL
FIBA rank: 7
How it got here: Via the FIBA Americas Championship.
Argentina Meter: 7

The Brazilians match up against Australia in their first game and you have to like Nene and Leandro Barbosa as building blocks to this team. Four years ago. Tiago Splitter is a nice addition from its recent Worlds teams with his development on the Spurs, but it can’t stop the bleeding that America would cause with its penetration and defense on holding down Brazil’s best players. That includes guard Marcelo Huertas (11 points per in the Americas Championship), but he’ll be eaten alive by Russell Westbrook. This team could play with all the flair of its national soccer team and it wouldn’t matter because the talent isn’t there on the hardwood. On the flip side, it’s a nice chance to prepare for the 2016 Olympics they’ll host.


NIGERIA
FIBA rank: 26
How it got here: Via the Olympic Qualifying Tournament.
Argentina Meter: 6

The wild card no one wants to play against is Nigeria because only FIBA executives knew this team was playing a week ago. I’m kidding, of course, but who thought a team led by Ike Diogu would go down and snag the country’s first Olympic bid? Ike had 10.8 rebounds per game and 16.6 points on 59 percent shooting. That’s not bad. Couple it with Al-Farouq Aminu‘s NBA experience (the competition won’t be a huge step up for him) and this team has the “why not?” attitude that should be lethal against Tunisia in the first game. Also, watch out for Derrick Obasohan.


AUSTRALIA
FIBA rank: 5
How it got here: Via FIBA’s Oceania Championship.
Argentina Meter: 5

The 6-10 Aleksander Maric is Australia’s best hope up front against Blake Griffin and LeBron, and isn’t the frontcourt always the matchup that haunts U.S. opponents? Maric plays against high-level competition in Greece with Panathinaikos and averaged 15.7 points and eight boards a game in the Oceania championship. Don’t forget about the recently re-signed Spur Patty Mills, who’s been playing on this team seemingly forever and knows his NBA competition well. Here’s some clips of Maric’s past from Euroleague.



RUSSIA
FIBA rank: 3
How it got here: Via the Olympic Qualifying Tournament.
Argentina Meter: 4

Welcome back Andrei Kirilenko. The spindly Russian got 8 boards a game and 16.2 points per during his four games in Caracas, Venezuela, last week. The now-CSKA Moscow forward is now 32 but he’s the unquestioned leader of this team. He even threw in a 16-point, 13-board and seven-assist night against the Dominican Republic in Russia’s second game of the tourney. I just don’t like his chances leading against a U.S. team that won’t respect him. It’s much harder to establish leadership when your teammates see everyone on the U.S. trying to “Baron Davis” your cap.



LITHUANIA
FIBA rank: 6
How it got here: Via the Olympic Qualifying Tournament.
Argentina Meter: 3

Arvydas Sabonis isn’t walking through that door. However, Linas Kleiza is, and that’s been good enough so far. Who knew? The former Nuggets forward put up 19.3 points per game in the Olympic qualifier for the fourth-most points per game in the tournament. He’s able to guard multiple positions and is their clutch guy with his inside-outside prowess. In the international game that’s huge. He’ll give up size but, might be able to surprise. Jonas Maciulus pulled down a team-high 7.7 boards per game but he’s only 6-7. How is he going to compete with America’s bigs (hint: not well)?



ARGENTINA
FIBA rank: 4
How it got here: Via the FIBA Americas Championship.
Argentina Meter: 2

Scola! The man with the hairband is an afterthought on the Rockets but is filthy when he puts on the baby blue of Argentina’s national team. He averaged 21.4 points per game to win the Americas Championship in 2011 to qualify for the Olympics. Add in Manu Ginobili, Carlos Delfino (though he’s coming off hernia surgery) and Andres Nocioni and the U.S. will get a huge test in group play from the boys from Buenos Aires. They’ve got NBA experience and even better, the legacy of being the first to embarrass the U.S. While this group of NBA players won’t have anyone on the team who was part of the 2002 or 2004 squads, Ginobili still carries the torch for Argentina.


SPAIN
FIBA rank: 2
How it got here: Via Eurobasket tournament.
Argentina Meter: 1

Ricky Rubio won’t play because of his knee injury, but the Brothers Gasol bring their American Redemption Tour — with Serge Ibaka, too — into London for some payback on Pau’s behalf. His treatment by Laker fans since winning the championship in 2010 has been astonishingly bad after a fairly eye-opening start with the team. It will fall short of tapping each other in like two wrestlers, but expect both brothers to play with an Iberian Peninsula-sized chip on their shoulders. That trio matches up better than anyone else with America’s frontcourt right now. Also to consider: After how well the Spanish national soccer team has cruised through international tournaments, these Spaniards are going to feel the heat to build in their ’08 silver.

Who has the best chance to beat the U.S.?

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