The Knicks are 7-1 as the toast of the town, and their Jay-Z-owned brothers across the East River, the Nets, are 6-2 and second in the Atlantic Division. That means the Post and Daily News are foaming at the mouth to stir up a little New York rivalry and tout the two teams as legitimate threats to come out of the East this spring. Except, we’re not even through the regular season’s first month, and there are some inconsistencies in what both teams have accomplished thus far. This isn’t to say the Knicks and Nets won’t both make the playoffs as many prognosticators believed, but they’re not going to dominate the East like they’ve done through the first couple weeks of the regular season.
The Knicks, especially, have a lot still up in the air with a returning Amar’e Stoudemire looming on the horizon. STAT’s natural spot at the 4 is where Carmelo Anthony has been most effective as the Knicks have gone a little smaller during this early season surge. Tyson Chandler is still a defensive anchor at the center position, but ‘Melo has been banging bodies in the post while taking advantage of opposing power forwards with his quickness. If Stoudemire’s return and ‘Melo’s subsequent return to small forward throws the team off track, what then? Amar’e’s contract is one of the worst in the league, and only a night where Mikhail Prokhorov goes vodka shot for vodka shot with some higher-ups in the Russian Interior could lead to him being traded.
Stoudemire makes a lot of money, and was once the face of the franchise before ‘Melo arrived. He probably wouldn’t handle a role coming off the bench very well, at least not as well as J.R. Smith has responded after initially being upset about his sixth man role during preseason. Unfortunately for the Garden faithful, STAT’s ambiguous place in the Knicks lineup isn’t their only concern.
The primary bright spot for the Knicks this season is their are shooting, but shooting is also the most delicate feature, able to turn cold just as fast as it heats up. They’re shooting at an incredible rate from long range; they’re third in the league in effective field goal percentage, according to Hoopdata. In their only loss this season against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Knicks shot just 5-for-19 from beyond the arc, good for 39.5 percent. It was their first game shooting under 50 percent from long range. In their last two – including that loss to Memphis and their most recent victory over Indiana – they’re 12-for-44. So it’s safe to say their shooting luck, at least from beyond the arc, won’t continue for the duration of the season.
But the Knicks also struggle in other components of the game. They get to the line at a below-average rate (22nd in the league, according to Hoopdata) while giving opponents an average number of looks from the charity stripe. This isn’t necessarily a lack of aggressiveness but probably a byproduct of their continued reliance on shots from the perimeter. The Knicks also fail to grab many offensive rebounds, so if their shots stop falling at their current rate, there will be a dearth of second chances. The Miami Heat can afford to give up some offensive rebounds since their style of play is predicated on their small ball lineup that out-hustles opponents and forces turnovers, but New York’s inability to corral rebounds isn’t offset by two perimeter defenders and rebounders like Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. The Knicks have been fabulous and fans in New York are rightfully juiced, but they also have some holes in their fast start and Stoudemire’s impending return could throw the whole team’s balance out of whack.
The Nets haven’t been surging like the league-leading offense of the Knicks, but they’ve also been plenty good at scoring. They’re tied with the Lakers with a top-ten offensive efficiency, per Hoopdata, and they’re third in offensive rating, according to Basketball-reference. There’s a big caveat that comes with that: They have the league’s slowest pace, which means all their stats have to be parsed down for less possessions. They’ve taken the second-least amount of shots in the league. That’s not a very large margin for error. Fortunately, they’re also shooting over 45 percent, but like the Knicks, that could dip. The Nets, as a team, aren’t doing too poorly except for their snail-like pace of play where Dick Bavetta could still officiate them when he’s 110 years old. But, also, there’s something that always needs to be mentioned on a Brook Lopez team: their rebounding.
They’re still struggling to grab rebounds (28th in the league, according to Basketball-Reference) even as Kris Humphries has made up for the slack left by the historically awful Lopez by notching close to ten a game (with almost three of them coming from the offensive glass). It’s also important to note why some of these stats are a bit slanted: they’re playing incredible freakin’ slow. They’re next-to-last in the league in shots attempted and made, and even though they’ve held their opponents to the same slowed-down pace, what happens when they face a team, like Miami, that will force them to run? Their defense has been okay, but again, that comes down to setting the pace.
Deron Williams still isn’t shooting like he did in his younger days in Utah (he’s around 43 percent from the field and 28 percent from three), but he’s back to around his career averages in points and assists. It’s the pace thing that’s strange. It’s not like Williams is unaccustomed to grinding out wins – with a few years under Jerry Sloan in Utah. But can he keep the team winning when they’re only getting so many looks at the bucket, and failing to rebound when they don’t connect? The Nets are in the earliest stages of not just their franchise but their season, so it’s hard to look at such a small sample size and glean any overriding themes. Yet a continued lack of rebounding and a slow pace could spell trouble in the future.
New York is still the basketball mecca of the world, with playgrounds packed with ballers seven nights a week (trust me when I tell you finding an open basket is not easy – even in Brooklyn), and the opening weeks of this basketball season have finally given all New York basketball fans someone to cheer about not named Lin. But it’s way too early to determine just how good the two New York teams really are, and it’s certainly not enough time to figure out their chances six months from now when the playoffs roll around. But for now, you have to enjoy their hot starts.
Which team will be better by the time the playoffs start?
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