Can Paul George Be A Star? How The Pacer Can Take The Next Step

The Indiana Pacers third-year guard, Paul George, was just named the Eastern Conference Player of the week after averaging more than 23 points, seven rebounds, four assists, a block and a steal as the Pacers went 3-0 this week. With the loss of Danny Granger to injury before the season started, has George finally found the footing necessary to become a franchise player in Indiana?

George is at an age where most people are just trying to find jobs after graduating from college. But in the hyper-intense world of professional basketball, where the learning curve is steeper than almost every other profession, he’s now expected to carry a Pacers team that’s missing Granger, and that had hopes of continuing their trajectory to elite status in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, they started the season winning only three of their first nine games, and it looked like the loss of Granger would be a lot harder to handle than most analysts predicted.

Since that awful opening couple of weeks though, the Pacers have gone 10-5 in their last 15 games, including wins in their last three. A not-insignificant factor of that success has been the play of George, who has upped many of of his season averages to career highs. Since going scoreless in the Pacers’ Dec. 1 loss to the surprising Golden State Warriors, Paul has topped 22 points on five separate occasions, and has scored in double-figures in every game as the Pacers have gone 5-2 over their last seven. We already mentioned his Player of the Week award, so it’s time to ask whether he’s finally turned a corner and become the go-to offensive player the Pacers need him to be.

George has been logging more minutes than ever before (more than 35 minutes a game after averaging less than 30 in his first two seasons), but he’s shooting at a career low 42.4 percent from the field while taking almost five more shots a game. He’s also averaging more than five three-pointers a game, which is about 2 more than what he averaged in his first two seasons with the Pacers. That being said, he’s shooting over 40 percent from long range, which is a great sign for Pacers fans, even if he’s attempting a lot more low-efficiency shots in the mid-range. According to Hoopdata, he’s taking nearly five shots a game between the rim and the three-point line. He needs to either cut down on those shots, or shoot them at a better percentage. He’s also getting to the line a little less than he did a year ago, so rather than settle for the contested 16-footer, he should try and get into the lane and draw contact, since he’s shooting close to 80 percent from the charity stripe for his career.

He’d be more dangerous if he stuck to shots at the rim, or kick-outs beyond the arc. If you look at his shooting splits (via NBA.com), it’s the mid-range game that’s lowering his overall shooting efficiency. Take a look first at George’s shot attempts from last season …

… and this season.

As you can see, he’s shooting much better from the short three in the corners this season, but he’s shooting a lot more from the mid-range than he did last year, and the percentages aren’t good — specifically on the right side of the bucket. George has been pulling up early when he’s inside the arc, rather than going to the hole for a higher-percentage shot at the rim, and a chance to draw a foul. You could infer that help defenders are converging on George faster than they did last year, since Granger isn’t there to spread the floor as much and center Roy Hibbert has struggled offensively, but George needs to keep attacking if the Pacers are going to be successful. The recent change to play him more at the three spot rather than as an off-guard, could help by matching him up against larger, but slower, small forwards, rather than the shooting guards he’d gone up against to start the season.

Despite George’s struggles in the midrange game, he’s continued to rebound at the rate he did last year, and he’s increased his assist totals, averaging almost an assist more per 36 minutes than he did last season. But it’s not just Paul’s passing that’s improved. He’s also gotten better as a defender; he’s needed to because the Pacers are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. Defensively, the Pacers are third in the league, allowing just 90.4 points per 100 possessions, so despite his shooting woes, Paul has inherited some of the better attributes of this year’s Pacers team: struggling to score points, but a lockdown defensive team. His defensive rating is the best it’s been in his career. When George is on the floor, his team only gives up 100.5 points per 100 possessions, which would be a top-10 defense. When he’s off the court, they give up slightly more, 101.7, so it’s clear he’s been active for them on the defensive end. He’s big and strong enough (6-8) to match-up against opposing forwards, so Pacers coach Frank Vogel has some defensive flexibility with his lineups.

But where the Pacers really need Paul is on offense. Despite his mid-range shooting percentages, he’s been largely successful at helping the Pacers score, especially lately. When George is on the court, the Pacers are scoring 102.6 points per 100 possessions, which would only be 12th in the league, but when he’s off the court they’re averaging 97.2 points per 100 possessions, and only Cleveland and Washington score at a lower rate. As a whole, the Pacers are the third-worst team in the league for offensive efficiency, but judging from his plus/minus numbers, George isn’t the primary reason why.

George has the body and the ability to be an all-star and the offensive focal point of a Pacers team that needs to improve it’s ability to score if they’re serious about being a challenger in the Eastern Conference. With Granger still down, it’s on George to help the Pacers score, and his increased usage rate and increased scoring have helped a bit so far, but they’re gonna continue to need more as the season progresses and defenses get more locked in. If he continues to be aggressive and challenges defenders at the rim, rather than settling for those abysmal midrange shots, he’ll be even more successful on the offensive end; hopefully, more time playing at small forward will help in that area.

George hasn’t yet reached his full potential, but he’s only 22 years-old and before Granger went down, the Pacers didn’t need him to step up as their “go-to guy.” Now they do, and — at least recently — he’s been up to the challenge. If the Pacers are going to have any shot coming out of the first round of the playoffs or getting home court this spring, they’ll need George to continue to improve and embrace his spot as the top dog in an offense that’s still one of the worst in the league; an offense that’s relied way to much on David West‘s creaky knees and turnaround jumper. We think Paul’s got it in him to become the superstar many predicted after coming out of Fresno State and having a surprisingly good rookie campaign. Hopefully for Pacers fans, he’s just scratched the surface of what he can do, but they still need a more consistent offensive effort from their best young player and the future of their franchise.

Can he take the next step?

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