Before the season started, the Boston Celtics were the biggest threat in the East to a LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh oligarchy set to control the NBA for the next few seasons. In the off-season, Kevin Garnett re-signed, Paul Pierce was still staying svelte, and even though Ray Allen went south to join their arch antagonists, they picked up Courtney Lee and Jason Terry to expand their offensive capabilities and, specifically, give them a bit more spacing on offense. They drafted Jared Sullinger to help spell Garnett, who turns 37 in May. Plus, they have who many analysts consider, one of the top point guards in a league increasingly more dominated by guard play. But Rajon Rondo‘s inability to create offense for himself has been a large reason the Celtics have struggled, and in particular, his abhorrence of contact while in the act of shooting is irksome for even the most devout followers of his game.
Rondo largely obliged his preseason fawning after an incredible 2012 playoffs by taking on more of a leadership role with the team. He brought most of the team out to the West Coast for a flag football bonding trip in the offseason, and made himself a tad more available to the media; although, he’s still just as likely to waylay the press for an extended stay in the trainer’s room. Regardless, all signs pointed to a year where Rondo became a peripheral MVP candidate while leading the Celtics to a 2 seed in the East and a rematch against those men down near the beach.
Except, things haven’t really turned out that way.
Through 28 games, the Celtics are stuck at .500 and in eighth place in the east, just ahead of the Andrew Bynum-less Sixers. After flashes of brilliance earlier in the year, Rondo’s shooting has tapered off slightly while his assists have dropped and his turnovers increased. But that’s mere grousing compared to his inability to get to the free-throw line, and how that affects the rest of an aging team over a long regular season. It’s also a key factor when judging Rondo’s staying power as a franchise point guard on a team with very real title aspirations.
Per hoopdata, Rondo isn’t even in the top 50 guards in free-throw attempts for those averaging over 20 minutes a game. In fact, this season Rondo is averaging 2.6 free throw attempts in over 37 minutes of action. For comparison’s sake, Chris Paul — and a janky knee that limits him to usually just the fourth quarter when he can attack the rim with frequency — still manages to get to the line 4.4 times a game, and Kobe, Russell Westbrook and Kyrie Irving are all more than 5 free throw attempts per game. So what’s the difference with Rondo?
It’s not like Rondo can’t get to the rim. He’s one of the fastest players in the league and possesses an almost other-worldly quickness that allows him to get into the heart of just about every defense, even those keyed to stop him. There is one rather large caveat to this, and it’s his so-so jump shooting. But even that is a fallacy because per NBA.com, Rondo is shooting 57.9 percent on shots between 5-9 feet, 44.7 percent from 15-19 feet and 50.9 percent between 20-24 feet. True, he’s only shooting 27.8 percent between 10-14 feet, but he’s only attempted 18 shots from that range this season. He’s also shooting 32.4 percent from three-point range (below the league average, that’s a little over 34 percent, but still better than someone like Deron Williams, who is below 30 percent on the season). That’s not even factoring in his 64.7 percent shooting at the rim, which is a career high per hoopdata. So why is Rondo only averaging 13.6 points per game, a figure that’s at least 4 or 5 points below here he needs to be if he wants to be considered a heavyweight star?
Those 4 or 5 points could, and should, be coming from free throws. They’re also points the Celtics could use in general when Garnett is on the bench and Pierce/Terry/Brandon Bass/Jeff Green are struggling to get going. The Celtics rank 17th in the league in points per 100 possessions. While that’s pretty much par for the course for this group without its punishing defense, it’s middling. The Celtics need those extra points from increased chances at the line from their slippery point guard. There’s a reason Rondo is so reluctant to take contact in the act of shooting: He has very little confidence in his ability to knock down shots from the charity stripe. He’s a career 62 percent free throw shooter, and while he’s a bit higher this season (64 percent), that’s still the fourth-worst percentage (87th out of 90) among guards that average more than 20 minutes a night and have played in more than 10 games this year (per hoopdata). That’s awful, and it’s already directly cost the Celtics a game, too.
For example, he passed up two different chances to drive the lane for the win in the first of a home-and-home against Philadelphia on Dec. 7. First, he has an opportunity to win the game in regulation.
After receiving the inbounds, and as he’s making his turn north-south towards the rim, he has a step on the older Jason Richardson. Instead of going all the way to the bucket to get an easier shot or draw the foul, Rondo pulls up a couple feet inside the arc, and misses the 21-foot jumper.
Then, down by 1 with just 2.7 seconds to go in overtime, Rondo does it again.
After Rondo inbounds the ball to Garnett on the block, he rushes past Evan Turner, who completely forgot about him once he got the ball in to KG. As Rondo makes his cut to the rim, Garnett feeds him while he’s still got a couple steps on Turner, with a direct path to the basket. Rather that smoothly go to the rim and either attempt a lay-up or draw the foul, Rondo slips attempting to shoot a pull-up and misses the rim completely on his awkward shot.
In both instances Rondo either had a step, on Turner in OT, or a distinct advantage in quickness, against Richardson in regulation. Instead of going hard to the rim for an easier shot or to draw a foul, Rondo pulled up for a jumper. He missed in both cases, even though he shot 8 for 14 on the game.
Now, Rajon also recorded a triple-double in that overtime loss against Philadelphia with 16 points, 14 assists and 13 rebounds, but he still shied away from contact in those two big moments for fear that he would get sent to the line. It ended up costing the Celtics a victory, despite Rondo’s all-around brilliance. During the game he only attempted two free throws, missing them both.
Right now the Celtics need Rondo to improve drastically on the offensive end. He doesn’t need to average 20 points a night, but he needs to be scoring more than the 13.9 points per game he’s at now, and that starts with an increase in easy points on the free-throw line. Garnett and Pierce aren’t getting any younger; they’re going to have off nights, and when they do, it’s up to Rondo to make up the difference. Until he starts using his incredible quickness to get into the lane and force the issue on a more consistent basis, the Celtics will continue to hover around mediocrity. They’re a franchise looking for a second title with Pierce and Garnett, both of whom have maybe one or two years left before they’re down for good, and mediocre isn’t what GM, Danny Ainge, and coach, Doc Rivers, are looking for. They’re looking to win a title, and they need their young leader to play as such.
So far Rondo has been stuck where he always is, a helter-skelter player who shines on the big stage, but fails to do what’s necessary for this team during a long and grueling regular season. It’s nice that Rondo gets up for nationally televised games and in the playoffs, but if the Celtics are going to have any chance this spring, they’ve got to secure home court in at least one round of the playoffs, and right now that’s looking less and less likely.
Maybe Rondo can embrace his idiosyncratic style, and shoot free throws like Rick Barry? It’s gotta be some change because he’s got to get to the line more and hit his free throws. The Celtics are depending on it now more than ever.
What do you think is the Celtics’ biggest flaw?
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