Why Kevin Durant Is Better At Taking The Last Shot Than LeBron

LeBron James and the Heat defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in the Staples Center last night, 99-90. LeBron had 39 points after shooting a hyper-efficient 17 for 25 from the field. The Heat have struggled this season, but James has not, shooting 55 percent from the floor and over 40 percent from beyond the arc. While it’s easy to rehash what LeBron is doing well on offense, it’s harder to find holes in his offensive game. An opponent’s ability to keep LeBron out of the restricted area is easier in theory than it is in games, but that’s the only way you’re going to slow down the reigning MVP and world’s greatest basketball player.

Kevin Durant, on the other hand, doesn’t need to get to the hoop to drop buckets. He’s a better, more multifaceted offensive player as a result, and that’s why he’s a better option if you need a bucket at the end of a game.

Durant is having an incredible offensive season for an Oklahoma City team that has the best record in the league and the highest scoring offense (despite the loss of James Harden), averaging 110.6 points per 100 possessions; Miami is second at 109.3. While Durant is a threat all over the court, LeBron still has holes in his offensive game. He’s been successful because he’s just become so disciplined in his shot selection, it’s covered up the midrange inaccuracy that still plagues him (although to a lesser degree than before). This should not be confused with LeBron’s ability to hit from deep, particularly from the right side of the court, but once LeBron’s caught between looks past the arc and at the basket–something that’s not been happening very much this year–he’s struggled, at least as much as someone with the gaudy numbers of LeBron can struggle. Conversely, aside from a perplexing lack of left corner three-pointers — Durant’s only attempted one all season — he’s shooting better than the league average seemingly everywhere on the floor, and that’s why he’s more dangerous on the offensive end than his foil in last year’s NBA Finals.

Last night against L.A.’s porous transition defense, LeBron was a perfect 15 of 15 when attempting shots at the rim. That means he was 2 of 10 everywhere else, which included 1 of 2 beyond the arc, and 1 of 8 between the bucket and the three-point arc. For the season, he’s shooting 72.2 percent at the basket, which is over 15 percentage points better than the league average (all stats not attributed, come via NBA.com).

Part of the reason for his astronomical shooting percentage, at least for a guard who’s hovering just below a 30 percent usage rate, is that he’s attempted more than 45 percent of his shots at the rim. Equally as efficient is LeBron’s accuracy from beyond the arc. He’s shooting 40 percent on the season from long range, going 50 for 125 so far this season. Those 125 shots represent over 17 percent of his total shots this season, so it’s not like he’s just shooting fewer three-pointers, like he did last season (last season he averaged 2.4 per game; this season it’s back up to 3.3, per hoopdata). LeBron’s mixing his drives and his jumpers, so that around 63 percent of all LeBron’s attempts happen behind the three-point line or right at the rim. That’s incredibly methodical and a large reason for his offensive efficiency this season; eliminating midrange jumpers — the least efficient shot in basketball — will do that.

Durant, on the other hand, has attempted a little more than 36 percent of his shots at the rim, while still shooting close to 10 percent over the average from that distance. Maybe he’s not as unstoppable as LeBron once he gets to the rim, but he’s close. He’s also shooting better from long range than LeBron, and he’s not limited to one particular side of the floor, either. LeBron’s shooting from beyond the arc drops below the league average from the left side to the area at the top of the key. Durant is above the league average everywhere beyond the arc except the short corner three on the left side already mentioned (the majority of OKC’s offensive sets keep him away from that area, but we’re guessing that percentage would be significantly higher if he got more looks). So, despite not being quite as accurate as LeBron while at the rim, Durant is a better three-point shooter while actually averaging more shots from that distance.

That leaves us with the midrange game. Now keep in mind, this is the least efficient place to take a shot on the court, since shots (theoretically) become harder the farther out you get from the rim. Without the additional point behind the arc, it’s not a big enough payoff to take a long-range two (take note Michael Beasley).

That being said, when was the last time you saw a game winning layup? Sure, LeBron has had a few — most notably when he was still a Cavalier playing against the Washington Wizards in the playoffs. Usually, a game-winning shot is from that inefficient area between the hoop and the arc. Now if you’re down three, and you have one more chance at it, Durant is again your choice because he’s a better three-point shooter, but if you’re just down two, or one, the midrange shot is the most likely to occur. As you’ve probably already guessed, Durant is a better midrange shooter, hitting over 47 percent of his midrange shots while LeBron shoots just 40.5 percent.

But what about fouls, since one of the only ways to stop LeBron from getting to the rim is to foul him? Again, Durant is superior, and by a larger degree than either midrange shots or three-pointers. Durant is better than 90 percent from the line this season even though he’s averaging almost nine attempts a game. Conversely, LeBron is shooting 73 percent from the line and he’s getting there less than he did last season (6.6 attempts per game vs. 8.1 last season). Before some recent improvements, LeBron was actually under the league average of 70 percent in the beginning of the season. So Durant wins the free-throw battle as well.

Listen, we’re not trying to say Durant is a better player than James. Part of the reason LeBron got so many looks at the rim last night, and throughout this season and last, is the way he and his Heat teammates — when they’re dialed in (which isn’t as consistent as Miami coach Erik Spoelstra would like)–have forced so many turnovers, which lead to easy transition dunks and layups at the rim. In fact, they started last night with four consecutive dunks after forcing the Lakers into 16 first half turnovers. LeBron’s ability to defend four positions and hassle opposing ball handlers with that deadly trap on the high screen and roll, plus his vision on offense, make him a better all around player than Durant.

But with the game on the line and with only one shot attempt at victory, Durant is a better option. He’s on pace to become just the eighth player since the inclusion of the 3-point line, to shoot 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from 3-point range, and 90 percent from the free throw line. Plus, his usage numbers are just as high as LeBron’s. You can read more about Durant’s stunning offensive success this season from Zach Lowe, but it’s pretty clear from the evidence above, he’s the better option for the last shot.

What do you think?

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