Projecting The Final 8 NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Seeds

The playoffs are getting close, and that means playoff seedings, which are as jumbled as ever this year after more than two thirds of the regular season has elapsed. The East, especially, has bunched up just below the winning streak that’s catapulted the Miami Heat to the indisputable No. 1 seed. Even if Miami lost their remaining 17 games of the season, they still might take home the top slot, and since they haven’t lost in more than 40 days, that’s probably not going to happen.

Miami is the No. 1 seed, but the rest of the Eastern bracket is very much in doubt. Indiana has taken over the No. 2 spot from an injury-riddled Knicks squad, but they lost their last two before playing Cleveland Tuesday night, and they have a losing record on the road, 14-18.

Taking a look at the remaining 15 or so games left, we might have a better idea of where teams will finish. What we do know is that Toronto probably isn’t going to catch Milwaukee for that last playoff spot, so we don’t need to worry about who will make the playoffs in the East, just where they’ll finish. Right now, seven games separate the Pacers at the No. 2 spot and the Bucks at the 8 spot. To give you an idea of how lopsided that is, Miami is 11 games ahead of Indiana after winning 23 (and counting) games in a row.

Here are the games remaining for each squad (except Miami, who is a lock for No. 1) to finish out the regular season, and the predictions for how each team will do moving forward.

*records do not include Tuesday night’s games*

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2. INDIANA PACERS (41-26)
Indiana has 15 games remaining, and 10 of them come against either playoff teams, or in the case of a Western Conference squad, a team that’s in the running for the playoffs. And they face six of those nine playoff teams on the road. That’s not good news if you’re hoping the Pacers hold on to their spot as the No. 2 team in the conference. They’re headed to Chicago on March 23, but Chicago has a nearly identical record at home as they do on the road (18-14 H; 18-15 R) after that referee blunder against visiting Denver on Monday night. After traveling to Chicago for the day, they have a playoff-bound Atlanta team at home before going on the road for a week and facing Houston and Dallas back-to-back. That’s neglecting to mention their game in Staples against the Clippers, which could be an awful ending to that road trip. Not only that, but once they do return to the confines of Bankers Life Fieldhouse, they host the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are battling San Antonio for the No. 1 seed in the west. They also face the Knicks and Celtics on the road before finishing up at home against the depleted Sixers. A conservative estimate, which has them playing .500 basketball against the playoff teams 5-5, plus a record of 4-1 against the non-playoff teams brings their record in their remaining 15 games to 9-6, which means they’d finish with a record of 50-32 on the season. Let’s see if that’s good enough to hold on to their place in the East.

15 games remaining (non-playoff or contending teams in parenthesis; asterisks denote losses): (ORL), MIL, @CHI*, ATL, @HOU*, @DAL*, (@PHX), @LAC*, OKC*, (@WAS), (CLE), BKL, @NYK, @BOS*, (PHI)

3. NEW YORK KNICKS (39-26)
Poor New York. Kurt Thomas was just lost for 2-4 weeks after “an acute stress reaction surrounding a chronic stress fracture” in his right foot. Tyson Chandler has a bulging disc in his spine and will miss a week. We already know about Rasheed Wallace and Amar’e Stoudemire: both are gone until at least the playoffs. Carmelo Anthony‘s knee is iffy, but he’s supposed to start when the Magic come to the Garden tonight. So, their team in tatters, the Knicks might get some luck in terms of their remaining schedule? Ummm, not quite. They have 17 games remaining and 10 are against playoff teams, including road games against, gulp, Boston, Miami, Atlanta, Oklahoma City and Chicago. They’re probably only winning that Chicago game, but maybe not. So that leaves 12 games remaining where they can make a push for the No. 2 seed, or just try and stay at the No. 3 seed. They have Toronto twice in a home back-to-back, Charlotte at home, Washington at home and then Cleveland and Charlotte again on the road. They’re good enough to run the table on these non-playoff teams, but with so many guys banged up, don’t count on it. I see them going 0-5 against the road playoff teams listed above — with their lone chance at a victory on the road against a playoff team coming against Chicago (with the huge caveat that if Rose is back in the lineup that’s not happening), but getting a win against Milwaukee at home while losing to visiting Indiana. Memphis will beat them, but they’ll beat Boston in the Garden. All told, a frisky answer for their remaining 17 games is 10-7 and that’s being super optimistic since they’ll have to win the season closer against Atlanta and beat Indiana when they come to town (Indiana blew them out 125-91 in Indiana less than a month ago). Right now, New York sits at 39-26, a game ahead of Brooklyn and a game back of Indiana, but those road games against playoff opponents are going to be really hard, especially after what we saw on their most recent road trip. If they go 10-7 the rest of the way (again, an optimistic estimate), they’ll finish at 48-34 and finish three games behind the Pacers for the two seed.

17 games remaining: (ORL), (@TOR), (TOR), @BOS*, MEM*, (CHA), BOS, @MIA*, @ATL*, MIL, @OKC*, (WAS), @CHI*, (@CLE), IND*, (@CHA), ATL

4. BROOKLYN NETS (39-28)
While New York has the injury bug, and Deron Williams seems to have righted himself after his Stephen Curry ankles waylaid his performance for much of the season’s first 50 games, the Nets still have an insane road trip they just started. The started on a good note, too, beating Detroit handily in the Palace on Monday night, 119-82. But they don’t get back from their jaunt across the country until April 4! Of those eight road games, half of them are against playoff teams, and that’s discounting Portland, who is only half a game behind Dallas and three and a half behind the Lakers in the No. 8 spot out West. So, the Nets are facing some testy teams on their trip. Imagine they lose to the Mavericks and Clippers (their next two opponents), but beat Phoenix and Portland. They’ll lose to Denver, but they beat Utah (who struggled mightily against a Knicks team missing ‘Melo, Tyson and Amar’e). Then they finish off their road trip with a victory in Cleveland. That means they’ll have gone 5-3 on their current road trip. Not too shabby. Of their remaining eight games, five are against non-playoff teams. So that’s five more wins right there, though lets subtract one as a let-down game. So they go 4-3 on their current road trip (as of this writing), and win four of their five games against non-playoff teams. That leaves meetings with Chicago at home, and Boston and Indiana on the road. They’ll beat Chicago in a slugfest (no sure thing since Chicago plays well on the road), but lose to Indiana and Boston on the road. That means they’ll go 9-6 the rest of the way and end up with the identical record as the Knicks: 48-34. What’s the tiebreaker you ask? Well, it’s usually the winner of the division who gets the nod, but they’re both in the Atlantic. The next one is head-to-head, but they split their season series 2-2 this year. The next tiebreaker is the conference won-lost percentage. Right now the Nets are 29-14 in conference play, and the Knicks are 24-13. So, if both teams finish with a 48-34 record, the Nets would get the three seed based off their conference record. Now New York could win more games in the conference and Brooklyn could lose them, but I’m not taking the time to go through ALL of them. Let’s just say that Brooklyn has a better chance of winning the tiebreaker over the Knicks as of this writing (and that pains me to write, too).

15 games remaining: @DAL*, @LAC*, (@PHX), (@POR), @DEN*, @UTA, (@CLE), CHI, (CHA), (PHI*), @BOS*, @IND*, (@TOR), (WAS), (DET)

5. ATLANTA HAWKS (37-30)
Al Horford has been a beast since the All-Star break. Josh Smith is still in town and Jeff Teague has made a significant improvement this season. Atlanta, whom many picked to falter little with the subtraction of Joe Johnson and his horrendous contract this summer, is in pretty good shape. Of their remaining fifteen games, six are on the road, including a brutal stretch starting in Milwaukee that has them playing four games in five nights at Milwaukee, Indiana, Toronto and Boston. They also have two more games against the Knicks in New York, and they have to travel to San Antonio for a game in April. All told, that’s not so bad. They win when Milwaukee comes to town, who they just barely beat in February, but lose to them on the road to start that road trip. They beat Portland and Toronto, but lose in Indiana and Boston. That makes them 3-3 before coming home and hosting Orlando, Cleveland, New York and Philly. They go 3-1 in that stretch, losing to Cleveland, but beating Philly, New York and Orlando. They’ll lose to San Antonio and then Philly on the road, which makes them 6-6 heading into their final three games at home against Milwaukee, Toronto and New York. If they win two out of three, they’ll have gone 8-7 over their remaining 15 games, and they’ll finish at 45-37.

15 games remaining: MIL, (POR), @MIL*, @IND*, (@TOR), @BOS*, (ORL), (CLE*), NYK, (PHI), @SAS*, (@PHI*), MIL, (TOR), NYK*

6. CHICAGO BULLS (36-30)
Bummer of a game against Denver on Monday night, since it places them in a tie with Boston for the six seed. They also have 16 games remaining with only seven of them coming against playoff teams or playoff-bound teams. Half of their remaining schedule is on the road, including three of their last four. They’ll beat Portland at home, and win when Indiana makes a visit in what is sure to be a pound-it-out affair. They beat Minnesota on the road, but lose to Miami at home and then lose again after traveling to Dallas. Back at home they lose a let-down to Detroit, and then travel to Washington for a win before losing in Brooklyn. That’s 4-4 in their next eight games. For their remaining 10, they have a win against Orlando at home and then travel to Detroit to get a revenge win after the loss at the United Center. They’ll win back at home when Toronto visits, and beat visiting New York, before going on the road again and losing to Toronto this time. They’ll lose in Miami before heading north to get a nice win in Orlando before winning their final game against Washington at home. That’s 6-2 in their last eight, meaning they’ll go 10-6 in their remaining 16 games and finish with a record of 46-36, which would catapult them ahead of Atlanta for the No. 5 seed and a spot to play New York in the first round. Something that can’t be forgotten is the return of Derrick Rose. I know a lot of people have postulated the possibility he doesn’t come back at all this season, but I just don’t think his competitive drive keeps him out of the playoffs. If that’s the case, it’s bad news for Knicks fans, since Chicago will be a lot harder to beat in a seven-game series with the former MVP back to shepherd Chicago’s woeful offense.

16 games remaining: (POR), IND, (@MIN), MIA*, @DAL*, (DET*), (@WAS), @BRK*, (ORL), (@DET), (TOR), NYK, (@TOR*), @MIA*, (@ORL), (WAS).

6. BOSTON CELTICS (36-30)
Boston won’t get the opportunity to have their All-Star point guard return this season like Chicago, but they’ve rallied well in his absence, going 16-7 since his injury was announced during the win against Miami back in late January. Paul Pierce is pretty much the definition of a wily veteran and even though KG can only give Boston 30 or so minutes a night, when he’s on the court they’re incredibly hard to score against. Probably the best thing to have happened since Rondo’s injury is the emergence of Jeff Green as a scorer off the bench, or the all-world scorer he became as a starter in place for Garnett (out with the flu and other aches) against Miami in their heartbreaking loss Monday night. The Celtics aren’t going anywhere and when Danny Ainge decided to keep the core together at the trade deadline, the rest of the Eastern Conference probably wasn’t too happy about that. They have three of their next games on the road, and two of them figure to be really tough: at Dallas and at Memphis. If they can win one of those games and their upcoming game in New Orleans, they’ll be 3-1 heading into their home date with the Knicks on March 26. They win that battle with the Knicks, but falter in Cleveland in a let-down game. They beat Atlanta at home, but then lose to New York on the road and again when they travel to Minnesota (maybe Kevin Love will be back to give them a boost?). But their next three are easy victories at home against Detroit, Cleveland and an improving Washington team. Then continue the mini win streak and beat Brooklyn at home, before heading south to Miami, whom they always play tough there (remember Game 5 of the ECF last year?). They lose a hard fought game to Miami, but beat Orlando and then Indiana when they come home. After going 10-5 over their next 15, they leave their starters at home when they travel to Toronto and lose, finishing the last 16 games at 10-6 and a 46-36 record, good for a tie with Chicago. Since Chicago would finish second in the Central Division behind only Indiana, and Boston would finish third in the Atlantic behind Brooklyn and New York, the Bulls get the five seed and Boston is relegated to the six seed and a match-up against Brooklyn in the first round.

16 games remaining: (@NOR), @DAL, @MEM*, NYK, (@CLE*), ATL, @NYK*, (@MIN*), (DET), (CLE), (WAS), BKL, @MIA*, (@ORL), IND, (@TOR*)

8. MILWAUKEE BUCKS (33-32)
Milwaukee is not significantly behind the Boston, Chicago and Atlantas of the world, but those teams aren’t much further back than Indiana and New York. Regardless, Milwaukee is going to have a tough time clawing their way to a better seed than their current spot as the warm-up for Miami in the first round. Let’s go through their remaining 17 games and see if they might be able to take the addition of J.J. Redick to their lineup and move past someone — anyone! — in order to avoid Miami. They’ll beat Portland at home in a shootout, but then lose to Atlanta and Indiana on the road before returning home to beat Atlanta. They win in Philadelphia as Jrue and Co. have fallen apart since Bynum decided to have surgery, but falter when the Lakers and Thunder come to town. They beat visiting Charlotte and Minnesota, but when they head to New York they lose before recovering at home against Toronto. Miami kills them in Miami, but they travel to Orlando and get a win before heading on to Atlanta to lose. They win in Charlotte (as MJ almost goes into cardiac arrest screaming at Bismack Biyombo to box out Larry Sanders), but lose to visiting Denver and finally they lose their last game of the season in Oklahoma City to finish at 41-41 on the year for a date to steal one game against Miami (we’re guessing Game 3).

17 games remaining: (POR), @ATL*, @IND*, ATL, (@PHI), LAL*, OKC*, (CHA), MIN, @NYK*, (TOR), @MIA*, (@ORL), @ATL*, (@CHA), DEN*, @OKC*

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Here’s how the Eastern Conference standings will look going into the playoffs:

1. Miami (duh): bazillion-not so many
2. Indiana: 50-32
3. Brooklyn: 48-34, tiebreaker goes to Brooklyn
4. New York: 48-34
5. Chicago: 46-36, tiebreaker goes to Chicago
6. Boston: 46-36
7. Atlanta: 45-37
8. Milwaukee: 41-41

Did we get our final projections right?

Follow Spencer on Twitter at @countcenci.

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