Trading Brandon Knight For Rajon Rondo Would Be A Disaster For The Detroit Pistons

The rumors of a possible deal sending Detroit’s young guard, Brandon Knight, to Boston in exchange for Rajon Rondo, are premature, according to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press. But lets look at the possible trade that hasn’t happened, and likely won’t, because it could have been terrifying for both teams.

The likeliest scenario for Rondo heading to Motown involves a Celtics swap for Greg Monroe, who the Pistons have been loathe to part with so far. But the original rumors had Rondo and Brandon Knight, the Kentucky guard who just finished his second year with the Pistons and who has flitted in and out of the Pistons’ lineup as a point- and off-guard.

If the purported Rondo-Knight trade had come to fruition, it would have made a mess for Detroit’s GM Joe Dumars. The Josh Smith signing has already come under some scrutiny because it overloads the Pistons’ front court with Andre Drummond at center, Monroe at power forward and Smith at the small forward spot. None of the three can open up space with their shooting.

Zach Lowe at Grantland has already detailed how these three, without Rondo, would limit the Pistons’ abilities to open up the lane for easy buckets.

Drummond and Monroe are both limited in their abilities outside the restricted area. Monroe is young and hasn’t found a touch outside of five feet, and Drummond is even younger and more raw, with very little outside the monstrous dunks that have made him a favorite among Detroit’s faithful. That doesn’t mean they’re bad players, just growing and developing. But that can present some problems with a franchise that’s in win-now mode after the signing of Smith.

Smith will potentially augment the Pistons’ crowded paint presence. He is not a good shooter, converting just 30 percent from deep and sporting a less-than-stellar 38.7 effective field goal percentage from beyond the arc (per hoopdata.com) last season. That 30 percent mark from beyond the arc is also the third highest of Smith’s career and he’s never shot better than 33.1 percent from three ever.

But the worst part is Smith doesn’t really know he’s a bad shooter, and teams will give him a 15-footer if it means not having to deal with him in the post. Smith will take that shot, even if it’s not an efficient decision. Yes, J Smoove can take advantage of undersized small forwards, but if Drummond and Monroe are already on the block, how is he going to have any room to maneuver? He won’t.

As Lowe explains, Dumars might not have signed Smith with the intention of making the Drummond-Monroe-Smith triumvirate the front court of the future. Instead, Dumars just grabbed the best player for a smart contract for future flexibility—including the dealing of Monroe. Smith was arguably the best player available in free agency after Dwight Howard and Chris Paul signed max deals in Houston and LA. Signing Smith was better than overpaying Tyreke Evans, but again, we have to come back to the dearth of shooting in Detroit’s front-court.

Enter Rajon Rondo, one of the top five best point guards in the league, but also someone that struggles shooting the ball.

Check out how Rondo’s addition could have possibly hindered the Pistons rather than help them get better.

Rondo has an even worse effective field goal percentage from 3-point territory than Smith does: 36.0 vs. 38.7 per hoopdata.com

Rondo’s jumper has improved, slightly, from just inside the three-point line, though. He shot 48 percent from 16-23 feet last year, via hoopdata, but attempted less than four shots from that distance, and while he’s improved his accuracy and sometimes takes advantage of point guards who continue to go under high screens while guarding him, he’s still taking the less efficient long two-pointer, rather than taking a step back for the extra point.

All of this is to say that by adding Rondo to a lineup that already includes the jump-shooting averse Monroe and Drummond, and the abysmal shooting of Smith, means that defending Detroit would only require packing the paint and daring any of their starters to beat them from deep.

The league has increasingly placed an emphasis on players who can defend and shoot with range. Analytics junkies have ascertained how much more effective a 3-point shooting team will do over a team that doesn’t use the extra point to its advantage. We’ve seen the small-ball lineups of the Knicks and Heat destroy teams that can’t handle all the three-point threats on the perimeter. And while Indiana and Memphis had success in last year’s playoffs using traditional big men, Memphis struggled against the Spurs in last year’s Western Conference Finals because whomever guarded shooting liability Tony Allen, basically acted as a freelancing rover on defense, and left him alone beyond the arc. Plus, Indiana had Paul George, George Hill and Lance Stephenson knocking down 3-pointers to spread the floor for Roy Hibbert and David West.

This is before we even mention the spacing issues. If Drummond is stationed on the low-block, and either Monroe or Smith comes out to set a high-screen on Rondo’s man, the paint will be heavy with opposing jerseys. Rondo’s man will go under the screen—as the scouting report tells his defender not to fear his jumper—and either Smith or Monroe’s man will drop back because neither of them is a threat to pick-and-pop for a jumper, either.

Monroe has shown a creative interior passing game and Smith can run a solid pick-and-roll with another big man, like the super effective one he ran with Al Horford last year in Atlanta. Rondo is easily the league’s best passer and a savant at finding passing angles where none exist. But all that passing genius won’t matter if the paint is packed with two or three defenders at the same time.

With little to no shooting on the court aside from Rodney Stuckey (30 percent 3-pt shooting last year). Kyle Singler (league average 35 percent from long range in his rookie season), and a prehistoric Chauncey Billups, defending the Rondo Pistons would be as simple as packing the paint and grabbing defensive rebounds. True, Smith, Drummond and Monroe crashing the offensive glass is scary as hell, but without the shooting to spread the floor, the Rondo addition could have had cataclysmic ramifications for the Pistons.

On the other side, Boston would lose their lone star in Rondo after the dealing of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn. Celtics fans are smart enough to understand the moves Danny Ainge has made this offseason as The Truth and KG are nearing the ends of their careers and can no longer log more than 30 minutes a game. But if they didn’t have Rondo to entertain this coming season, than they might revolt after so much success since 2008. They understand what a rebuild entails, but outright tanking will rankle the Boston traditionalists.

Rondo is still an interesting trade chip, and don’t put it past Ainge to move him to another team some time this summer, but they’d have to get something back that’s more than Brandon Knight and a possible future late first-round pick. Jeff Green and Rondo will make sure this year isn’t unwatchable for Celtics fans, but if Rondo had been dealt to Detroit, it might have messed up both franchises.

Now watch the deal happen anyway.

Do you think Rondo stays in Boston for next season and how good do you think the Pistons will be with their current roster?

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