10 NBA Players On The Cusp Of Important Contract Years

This season, one of the biggest (and soon to be most repetitive) storylines will be the ensuing craziness that occurs when superstars like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, and yes, even Chris Bosh can become free agents. Are you ready for another onslaught of media predictions and ESPN headlines like “LeBron wears yellow shirt outside-is Cleveland back in the mix?” or “Kobe says anything is possible” (Side note: if you think for a second that Kobe, if he comes back healthy, isn’t going to use his pending free agency to get exactly what he wants in L.A. then you’re crazy.) or “Bosh pledges eternal loyalty to Big Three; Wade, James tell him that’s REALLY not necessary.”

The point is, we all know what’s coming, just like when the water shakes from the T-Rex in Jurassic Park (sorry, Bosh got me thinking about dinosaurs). But what about the players who aren’t in this elite category? The group of players in the last year of their contracts this season, and whose play determines their pay?

For those who didn’t know, NBA front offices have a long history of misjudging players’ ability/potential based off contract year performances. Players can “trick” front offices into paying them much more than they’re actually worth (Brendan Haywood, Drew Gooden, Linas Kleiza and Jerome “Trash Bags” James to name just a few recent ones) by outperforming their statistical history. In the past we’ve seen GMs who need to make a big signing throw millions at a player who never performs as well again. But, in recent years, with properly managing the salary cap becoming increasingly important, more and more GMs are weary of taking a risk on a player with prior injury or with just one really good season.

The pressure isn’t just on the front office execs however; players in the last year of their contract (or with the early termination option like James, Bryant and others) have to perform capably or risk going into negotiations without any negotiating power. As we saw this past offseason, players like Monta Ellis (due to make $11-plus million in the last year of his old contract) chose to opt out hoping to secure a lucrative long-term contract, only to underperform or overvalue themselves and come up short. (Ellis signed a three-year $25 million contract at the end of the offseason.)

The point is, it’s essentially “put up or shut up” time for this group of players. So who has a lot riding on this year? Let’s look at 10 players in the midst of important contract years.

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DIRK NOWITZKI
unrestricted free agent
Dirk is the only true star to appear on this list. The former MVP (who boast career averages of 22.6 PPG and 8.2 RPG) is entering his 16th season and will turn 36 by season’s end. So, he’s no spring chicken. While he had a down year (by his standards) last season, by February he was back to being typical Dirk.

I can’t see Dirk playing anywhere else, but I thought the same thing about Paul Pierce this offseason. After striking out the past two year in luring a big free agent partner to Dallas, is Dirk willing to sacrifice his final years playing on a mediocre team? After making $22,721,381 this season, will he simply accept a major pay-cut so he can finally get the help he needs? This season will have a huge impact on both Dirk’s future and the future of the Mavs organization.

RUDY GAY
player option for 2014-2015
After seven years in the NBA, I don’t know exactly what to say about Rudy Gay. On one hand: he is freakishly athletic; he can play shooting guard, small forward and even a little power forward; he’s still in his prime (or just entering it depending on your definition) at age 27, and COULD potentially have that moment where it all clicks and he reaches his potential. On the other hand, while he has all the physical talents to be a superstar, he hasn’t shown it consistently enough to be anything more than a second or third option.

While he once had a capable three-pointer to go with his acrobatic finishes, he now is more than willing to iso and chuck up the long-range two-pointers instead. He could be a capable defender as well, but that would require some effort, something he hasn’t been willing to give just yet. He will never live up to the contract the Memphis Grizzlies gave him (five years, $82.3 million), which resulted in his $19.3 million player option he must decide on after the season. Much like Andre Iguodala‘s situation this past offseason, Gay must decide between long-term security, or one year of making $19.3 million. We heard this past spring that Toronto was going to lock him up to an extension this summer and then… haven’t heard a word since.

If Gay shows any signs of improvement on defense and shot selection, and the Drake-led Raptors put together a decent season, Gay might be able to trick some GM into locking him up to another lucrative extension. If Gay continues to play selfish basketball, will he end up like Monta Ellis? (Expecting a big payday and ending up taking much less money after firing your agent and looking foolish… it was a bad summer for Monta). We’re about to find out.

DANNY GRANGER
unrestricted free agent
First things first, Danny Granger will never get $14 million a year again. But think back to a few years ago. From 2008-2011, Granger averaged 20-plus PPG (25.8, 24.1 and 20.5 respectively). Then injuries robbed him of all but five games last season (and he looked like a shell of his former self when he did play).

While he may never reach that All-Star level of play again, a healthy Granger could be just what the Pacers need to challenge the Heat again these playoffs. If Granger can provide reliable scoring and stay healthy this season, he may convince another team to offer him a $7-11 million contract. (Yes, I am just assuming the Pacers will cut ties with Granger after this year if his stock is too high. They don’t have the finances to lock both him and Lance Stephenson up to big contracts.) If he underperforms (or doesn’t perform at all), Granger’s contract turns into one of the most valuable trade chips for the Pacers as the season progresses. It looks like a win-win for the Pacers, but Granger needs to perform like he used to if he expects any big money to be thrown at him.

MARCIN GORTAT
unrestricted free agent
It’s been quite a journey for the Polish Hammer. After starring as Dwight Howard‘s super-sub, Gortat earned himself a nice pay raise (five years, $33.9 million) from the Magic before being traded to Phoenix. Expected to be a franchise building block, Gortat hasn’t lived up to such lofty expectations. That’s not to say he hasn’t performed: Gortat has averaged 13.3 PPG and 9.3 RPG in two seasons for the Suns. But he’s looked more like a role player, something that the completely rebuilding Suns don’t need right now.

While his name is going to appear in the trade rumors section right up until the deadline, Gortat could be on his way to a contender. But centers have a history of becoming drastically overpaid if they perform well in contract seasons (like every Mavs center except Tyson Chandler). Pretty much… you can name an average center and at some point or another they earned big bucks after a season’s worth of double-doubles. If Gortat plays well in Phoenix, or performs credibly in the NBA Playoffs (if he’s traded, we all know Phoenix ain’t getting there), he’ll rightfully be expecting $10-plus million a year from his next contract.

ANDREW BOGUT
unrestricted free agent
Let’s just get the injury-related players out of the way. Nobody is questioning Bogut’s talent, the former No. 1 pick led the league in blocks per game in 2010-2011 (2.6) and has been one of the game’s steadiest two-way big men. But… he’s only managed to play 44 games over the past two seasons due to injuries. (Remember that gruesome foul when Bogut was trying to dunk that resulted in him landing awkwardly and breaking his wrist? That was the start of it all.) But come playoff time, Bogut came back strong and was a big reason the Warriors went on their Cinderella-like run (besides that Stephen Curry guy).

Simply, if Bogut can manage to stay healthy and perform like he always has, someone will be willing to give him a lot of money. (He says he wants to stay in Oakland but will the cap-tight Warriors be able to fend off a big-time offer?) If he goes through another injury-plagued season, he’s more than likely going to get some sort of mid-level offer or a deal similar to that of Andrew Bynum (short term, not much guaranteed money).

LUOL DENG
unrestricted free agent
Deng doesn’t deserve to be on this list. The two-time All-Star has led the league in minutes per game the past two seasons. Originally a “stopper” with a limited offensive game, Deng has transformed himself into a reliable weapon from downtown AND in the absence of Derrick Rose, showed off his playmaking skills more than ever.

The problem that lingers, however, is just how much is Deng worth? Coach Tom Thibodeau loves Deng, but according to numerous sources, contract negotiations have come to a screeching halt. If the Bulls don’t look like contenders, will the front office pull the trigger and send Deng away for a younger option — remember, the front office has had their share of arguments with Thibs before? Or will Deng finally show the effects of playing so many minutes so quickly? It seems almost unfair to think that his body could give out now, right as he looks for another contract. But that’s the way it goes sometimes. If Deng averages anywhere near his stats from last year (16.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.0 APG), another team could come calling with an offer the cap-conscience Bulls can’t afford to match. Remember, the Wizards almost reportedly traded for him this offseason.

GREG MONROE
restricted free agent ($5.5 million qualifying offer)
Another player whose individual play didn’t put him on the list. Monroe is a product of a possible transformation in Detroit. He went from apparent franchise building block to possible trade bait come spring. With the addition of Josh Smith, and the emergence of center Andre Drummond (who everyone seems to think is poised for a breakout year), Monroe might end up the odd man out.

Entering his fourth season (and the last on his rookie contract, which pays him a well deserved $4.1 million), there is no doubt Monroe will have his choice of teams calling his agent after the season. The question will be, however, how much money are they going to offer? Monroe has improved each season and last year posted 16.0 PPG and 9.6 RBG. A player somewhat in the mold of LaMarcus Aldridge (both are tall, skinny big men, with above-average midrange games), Monroe can essentially play his way out of Detroit by performing well this season. If his numbers increase with the addition of Brandon Jennings and Smith, will Detroit be willing (and able) to offer big bucks to one more player? But if Monroe regresses (a very possible outcome as well), he might face the misfortune of going through the typical growing pains at the absolute worst time. A bad season could drop his stock tremendously, and his next contract could go from somewhere in the double-digits to somewhere in the $6-9 million range. Expect Monroe, whose already told reporters he won’t discuss his contract negotiations, to come to play this year for the sneaky-good Pistons.

ERIC BLEDSOE
restricted free agent ($3.7 million qualifying offer)
I originally wanted to put Bledsoe at the top of this list, but changed my mind after going over the situation again. There isn’t another player more hotly debated in NBA war rooms than Bledsoe. Is he an All-Star caliber point guard or a player whose offensive deficiencies will prevent him from reaching the next level? Well, it would appear Phoenix is betting on the first being true, as their new front office traded away respected veterans for him (remember their new GM is a former member of the Celtics organization, and Bledsoe’s defensive prowess and lacking offensive repertoire has some of the makings of a Rondo-esque player).

But can Bledsoe make his mark? If he breaks through, which means continuing to shoot from three-point range like he did last year (39.7 percent, but he only shot 79 total) and not the season prior (in which he shot 20 percent) and shows he can run an offense full-time (Bledsoe, like many young point guards, is turnover prone…but he has shown steady improvement), then he’ll be in the market for a hefty pay raise.

While I like him a lot, I don’t think I would pay him more than Jeff Teague money right now ($8 million) because my head says his performance is somehow a product of playing behind Chris Paul. But, if Bledsoe can average high double-figure scoring numbers and eight or nine assists a game playing nearly every minute for the lowly Suns, they might have to pay him more to keep him around. It all comes down to how well he performs throughout the year.

EVAN TURNER
restricted free agent ($8.7 million qualifying offer)
What exactly is Evan Turner? After three seasons in the NBA, we’re still asking that question. Is he a huge point guard, a big, slow-footed shooting guard, or a slightly undersized small forward? The 76ers picked up the last year of his rookie contract (which pays him nearly $7 million this year) in an effort to figure that out. One thing important to remember is that the front office that drafted him is no longer present in Philly. The completely rebuilding, “We’re pretty much aiming for the No. 1 pick” 76ers will put the ball in Turner’s hand often this season and he’s expected to play major minutes for them (so he can show his true value to them, or so that they can show him off to a willing trade partner).

Either way, this is a make or break it year for Turner, who hasn’t lived up to his lofty expectations after being the No. 2 pick in the 2010 Draft. The scouting reports on Turner read “high volume shooter, slow footed, good at everything but great at nothing.” But, for those who see the glass half full, Turner HAS improved each year in the NBA, averaging new highs of 13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 6.3 RBG, and finally improving his three-pointer up to league standards as well (36.5 percent). But those numbers don’t scream franchise-caliber player, and the 76ers may be ready to move on from the Turner era.

So think of this year as an audition for Turner’s future employer. If he ups his averages once again, he might be able to convince someone in the market for a playmaker to give him a nice contract. (You would rather have Turner than Marcus Thornton, who makes over $8 million a year, right?) But if Turner looks out of sorts in the City of Brotherly Love, GMs will be hesitant to throw money at a player who doesn’t have one major skill.

DERRICK WILLIAMS
team option ($6.3 million)
At one point there was a legitimate debate between Kyrie Irving or Derrick Williams for the No. 1 NBA Draft pick. That was clearly a mistake after seeing Kyrie take off, but the talent is there for Williams to make an impact. The biggest issue is what position is Williams? He reportedly dropped 20 pounds this offseason in an effort to be ready for more playing time this season.

With starting small forward Chase Budinger back on the shelf after undergoing another procedure on his knee, Williams will have no excuses this year. Usually a high draft pick’s rookie contract is just picked up, but the cap-maxed Timberwolves haven’t decided if Williams is worth the $6.3 million next year calls for. (They have until October 31 to exercise it.)

With career averages of 10.5 PPG and 5.1 RBG, Williams doesn’t have the stats of a No. 2 pick, but in the final 33 games of the regular season last year, Williams, playing major minutes for the injury-stricken Timberwolves, averaged 15.2 PPG and 6.6 RPG, and shot 34 percent from three-point range.

Like Turner, this year is an audition for Williams. If he steps up, his contract will be extended and he will probably get a long-term deal. If he continues to be just average, he might be one of the most rumored trade targets come deadline time (if he isn’t already). The course of Williams’ whole career can be altered by the outcome of this season. Let’s hope he’s ready to play.

Which players are under the most pressure to perform this year?

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