Who Should You Draft In Fantasy: Ty Lawson Or Monta Ellis?

Hopefully, you’re ready with cheat sheets, rankings and tips for your annual fantasy basketball draft party. If it hasn’t happened already, just know it’s coming. Over the past week, we’ve been breaking down and debating key matchups so when the time comes to choose, you’ll know where to go.

*based on head-to-head format*

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TY LAWSON
Fantasy basketball is just as much about situation as it is about the talent of an individual. Ty Lawson has been biding his time for a while now, despite averaging 30-plus minutes a night for the last two seasons. His first two NBA seasons were a learning experience, as he was stuck behind Chauncey Billups on the Nuggets depth chart. When Mr. Big Shot was finally sent out of town, Andre Miller stepped right in, resulting in more bench minutes for the University of North Carolina product. Last year, it was Andre Iguodala who was brought in to dominate the touches in the Denver backcourt. However, this year seems to be the one that Lawson will truly be unleashed.

This is the definition of a transition year for the Denver Nuggets. Starting from the top, the legendary George Karl has been replaced with a rookie head coach in Brian Shaw. Shaw is a former NBA guard who will more closely relate to Lawson than anyone else on the roster. Denver’s most reliable scorers of the last five years are all thoughts of the past. Gone are volume shooters like Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. Gone are the trusty, heads up players like Nene and Arron Afflalo. Gone is last season’s third-leading scorer in Andre Iguodala, and missing with injury is the second-leading scorer in Danilo Gallinari. The 2013-14 Denver Nuggets are going to be Lawson’s show to run and fantasy owners should expect big things.

Last year was a breakout season for Lawson, who averaged 16.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.2 threes and 1.5 steals. All of those, except for the rebounding, were career-highs for the fifth-year point guard. This season, he should be able to build on those numbers even more. Even when Gallinari returns from his ACL surgery, the Nuggets will be starved for offense. George Karl was an offensive whiz who could turn anyone not named JaVale McGee into a fantasy relevant basketball player, and without him, buckets won’t be as easy to come by. Lawson will hold the reigns to the offense and should have the ball in his hands a ton.

At this point of his career, Andre Miller is only there for a few spurts of relief and veteran advice, so there’s no need to worry about Lawson losing any time. As long as Ty is healthy and on the floor, the stats will come in bunches. He has missed 33 games over his first four seasons, which is some cause for concern, especially because of his bout with plantar fasciitis last season, but still, Lawson is entering the season with a clean bill of health.

The point of the draft where you’re taking both of these guys borders on whether it’s better to take the safer pick or the upside, but to me, this particular debate leans towards Lawson. Ellis will be dealing with adapting to a new situation. He’s played with some ball-dominant guards throughout his career, but never came close to playing alongside a talent like Dirk Nowitzki. It’s hard to teach an old dog new tricks, and Ellis is going to have to play off the ball for the first time in his career, especially when you consider the presence of a pure point guard like Jose Calderon. Throw in inconsistent field goal percentage and tons of mileage on his legs, and you can even make the argument that Lawson is safer AND has more upside. Fantasy basketball isn’t about who was ranked higher in the past, it’s about predicting who will have the better year this season, and that guy is clearly Ty Lawson.
-KEVIN SMITH

Keep reading to hear the argument for Monta Ellis…

MONTA ELLIS
Monta Ellis is near the top of my list for safest fantasy pick-ups in the 2013-2014 season. Know matter what city Ellis is balling in, he doesn’t seem to disappoint. When he played for the Golden State Warriors from 2005-2011, a key contributor to his fantasy value was his role in the high-octane, up-tempo style of basketball. Even after Stephen Curry was drafted in 2009, Ellis went on to score a career-high 25.5 points per game. Curry missed plenty of time, so that helped his value tremendously. If a manager targeted Ellis in his drafts, it was going to cost him. Today, managers can snatch Ellis a little later in drafts than his Warrior days, and the athletic guard will produce regardless of the jersey on his back. For ball-dominant players like Ellis, it doesn’t matter what the front of the jersey says, just what name is across the back.

After Ellis got traded to the Milwaukee Bucks for Andrew Bogut, most of the rankings online had him dipping at least three rounds. Brandon Jennings is notoriously known to jack the rock, but that still didn’t impact Ellis too much. Don’t get me wrong, it does hurt his value being out of the up-tempo system that the Warriors ran, but Ellis continues to be a steals machine and a big-time scorer. Not only did Ellis play in all 82 games in the 2012-2013 season, he also averaged an exceptional 19.2 points, 6.0 assists and 2.1 steals while logging more than 37 minutes per game. The former Bucks guard contributed over a trey a game and an underrated .4 blocks per game. When players who contribute in a category that’s not expected, it always becomes a solid boost for your squad. He’s not one of those point guards who can’t even sniff a board, averaging just under four boards per game for his career. Other than the occasional field goal percentage issues at times, Ellis produces in most categories for standard head-to-head leagues. Field goal percentage for a fantasy team will be incredibly inconsistent anyway, so that category should be the least of your worries in drafts.

Ellis experienced free agency during the offseason, and the Dallas Mavericks won him over with a three-year, $25 million deal. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban was a lock to throw money around this year, especially since they struck out on hometown guard Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, just to name a couple. Jose Calderon was added to the roster too, but he’s a pass-first, traditional type of point guard. He’s going to be a near perfect fit to how Ellis plays, being a score-first hybrid guard. Dirk Nowitzki is going to receive plenty of attention in the opposition’s defensive schemes, so I expect Ellis to benefit on the offensive side of the ball. The explosive Mavs guard is only 28 years old, and he’s proven to be a durable option. It wouldn’t shock me if this is finally the season Ellis gets selected to the NBA All-Star Game in Houston. Don’t hesitate to draft Ellis this year, especially if you selected big men in the opening rounds.
-CHRIS DIGIOIA

What do you think?

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