We’re more than a month into the 2013-14 NBA season and the Eastern Conference is about as top heavy as it gets. Aside from Indiana (16-2), Miami (14-3) and the Wiz (9-9), no team is at .500 or above. Consequently, 12 teams in the West are at .500 or better and the ‘Wolves are just one game back at 9-10. So why the discrepancy?
A couple big outlets have called attention to this unusually decisive disparity between the conferences.
USA Today’s estimable duo Sam Amick and Jeff Zillgitt both spoke with retired GM and player and current TNT commentator, Steve Kerr, and former coach and current ESPN NBA analyst Jeff Van Gundy. The latter sums up the cringe-worthy games between the East and West so far this year:
“The Eastern Conference this year, it won’t end up as bad, because they’ll play each other more. But man, some of those games right now, it’s embarrassing,” ESPN analyst and former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy said.
The former cites the Knicks, Nets and Bulls as the reason for the increased winning percentage in the Western Conference:
“The biggest problem is the Knicks, Nets and Bulls,” TNT analyst and former Phoenix Suns general manager Steve Kerr said. “Those were teams who were supposed to be pretty good. In fact, I thought Miami was going to be challenged in every round of the playoffs coming in because of the Nets, Knicks, Pacers and Bulls. Now, all of a sudden, Derrick Rose is injured. The Knicks are a complete mess. Brooklyn’s injured. It’s like, ‘Let’s just get to the conference finals already with Indiana and Miami.'”
Just look at this disparity between conferences:
ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh attempted to figure out why the divide is so stark this year, and landed on two different reasons, only one of which is quantifiable.
First, he appears to draw a line between the ownership and management in the Western Conference in comparison to the Eastern Conference. Think Mikhail Prokhorov, James Dolan and Michael Jordan in the East, and smart meddle-free owners in the West, like San Antonio’s Peter Holt — who generally leaves all the decisions to R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich. This is unfair though, since Donald Sterling (Clippers), Jim Buss (Lakers), Clayton Bennett (Thunder) and others could rightfully be criticized for some of their decisions (we won’t get into their personal peccadilloes).
Then Haberstroh mentions the influx of international talent in the west, and how that’s given them an advantage over the homegrown players in the East. After using All-Star appearances to differentiate the foreign talent in each conference, (Zydrunas Illgauskas is the only foreign-born Eastern Conference All-Star over the last decade, and most people can’t even remember that), Haberstroh uses WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) to make his case:
We can look at this objectively rather than looking purely at All-Star appearances. According to research presented in the 2012-13 Basketball Prospectus, international players contributed 101.6 wins over replacement player (WARP) to Western Conference teams in the 2011-12 season. How about out East? Just 29 WARP. The gap widens over time. In the past decade, we’ve seen 949.4 wins contributed by international players to the West efforts compared to just 267.1 WARP from the East. The trend continues to this day
But it’s not as simple as Haberstroh makes it seem when he writes, “The West has Dirk Nowitzki and the East has Andrea Bargnani.” Haberstroh’s second reason in the piece, injuries, acts as the real culprit for the gulf between conferences.
Find out how injuries have all but negated most Eastern Conference contenders.
The injuries in the East shouldn’t get the short straw in this discussion, but should be front and center. If Derrick Rose, Tyson Chandler, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, Brook Lopez (now playing again), Bradley Beal, Ersan Illyasova, Larry Sanders and Al Jefferson had all remained healthy, who knows where the Knicks, Nets and Bulls would be right now? Instead, they’re all below .500 and facing an uphill battle chasing the Heat or Pacers for home-court this spring.
The Knicks and Nets, especially, have grabbed the headlines with in-fighting, bickering and a general malaise when faced with the challenge of digging themselves out of a series of early season failures. It’s even affected ticket sales! (which is a good thing if you’re a poor basketball fan like we are).
While the Nets can point to Deron Williams’ injury as a reason for their struggles, with such a stacked bench, you’d think they would be able to survive the rash of injuries they’ve encountered. While Shaun Livingston is an excellent backup, Andrei Kirilenko hasn’t played, Paul Pierce is now out for the next month, Garnett isn’t getting any younger and Brook Lopez just returned.
The Knicks seem to be the most broken, in last place in the East and currently in the middle of an nine—game losing streak (and counting) that’s got most of Manhattan huffily looking towards the Islanders and Rangers to fill the void. But that’s almost entirely because of Tyson Chandler’s unfortunate Fibula fracture.
Chandler only got to play four games with the Knicks before he fractured his right leg. In his 107 minutes on the court, the Knicks gave up an average of 92.2 points per 100 possessions. That would be the second best defensive efficiency in the league, trailing only the resolute Pacers.
In the 666 minutes (that’s a bad sign) Tyson has been off the court, the Knicks give up an average of 107.5 points per 100 possessions, which would be the worst mark in the league. The Knicks are in the bottom five for defensive efficiency anyway, since Chandler has missed so much time, but he’s the wedge that separates the Knicks from the rest of the East. Carmelo Anthony is playing hard, and so is most everyone else. When the Knicks are pondering what’s going on during this losing streak, they need not look further than the lack of an interior defender. That’s what you need in the NBA, and Chandler’s absence has been downplayed while the majority of fans blame coach Mike Woodson.
The same can partially be said about Deron Williams and the Nets. He’s got the second best on/off ratio on the team, but even that’s in the negative. Williams has struggled in the nine games in which he’s appeared, and his persistent ankle issues should take some of the blame. He’s only shot 40.5 percent from the field this season and averaged 6 dimes per game. That’s a far, far cry from the Deron Williams many expected after last season’s second half surge.
Do we even need to get into the Bulls? I think most of you can piece together what they’re missing AGAIN this year.
That’s three Eastern teams who were supposed to compete for a top-four Eastern Conference playoff berth, but are instead floundering below .500 because integral pieces are sidelined with injuries. The reason for the contrasting conferences lies with injuries, not some deep chasm between the two conferences. If Andrew Bogut goes down for Golden State (and the loss of Iggy has already significantly downgraded their defensive efficiency rates), Blake Griffin goes down for the Clippers, LaMarcus Aldridge limps off for Portland, Tony Parker gets injured for San Antonio or Kevin Durant blows out his knee for Oklahoma City, the Western Conference wouldn’t be doing so hot, either.
Listen, the Spurs have always killed the Cavaliers, but it’s not some overarching theme when we’re still less than halfway through the second month of the season. Just hope the Eastern Conference gets healthy in a hurry, or we could be looking at a quirky Raptors-Wizards second round match-up that sets the Twitter-verse on fire when Rudy Gay attempts 50 field goals in a single playoff game.
Why is the West so much better than the East this year?
Follow Spencer on Twitter at @countcenci.
Follow Dime on Twitter at @DimeMag.
Become a fan of Dime Magazine on Facebook HERE.
