Hopefully, you’re ready with cheat sheets, rankings and tips for your annual fantasy basketball draft party. If it hasn’t happened already, just know it’s coming. In the coming week, we’ll be breaking down and debating key matchups so when the time comes to choose, you’ll know where to go.
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*based on head-to-head format*
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JOHN WALL
The Washington Wizards were one of the hottest teams down the stretch last season, and at the forefront of that run was former first overall pick, John Wall. Despite missing the first few months of last season with knee issues, Wall finished as strong as any other point guard in the league. In nine April games, he averaged 23.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists, with 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks. Entering his fourth season, there’s no reason to think that Wall can’t replicate that stretch.
Wall and Rubio are actually very statistically similar. Some in the head-to-head game might prefer Rubio’s dominance in assists and steals, but that production comes with downfalls. Rubio is just a 36 percent career shooter and he does it on over nine attempts per game, while adding only about a half of a three per game. While Wall doesn’t shoot the three-ball with any fantasy relevancy either, at least he knows his role and doesn’t take the shots, averaging just one three-point attempt per game.
The biggest and most important difference in their game is in the blocks department. Getting blocks from your guards can be crucial to your team, especially if you’ve already drafted a big man like Kevin Love or Carmelo Anthony, who barely add any value to that category. Last year, the only guard eligible player to average over a block a game was Nicolas Batum. Right behind him was Wall, who finished the season with 37 blocks in 49 games. That doesn’t sound like much, but realizing that any block you get out of your point guard is unexpected, and should just be considered as gravy. It makes a huge difference. The only point guards expected to be in Wall’s class when it comes to swatting shots this year are Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade and possibly Eric Bledsoe. If your bigs are a little weak, it’ll make a big difference if you can grab any two of these guys.
Almost equal to Wall’s dominance in blocks over Rubio is his dominance in scoring. I’m not pretending that Wall is a saint when it comes to field goal percentage, but I’ll take 44 percent on 15 attempts over 36 percent on nine attempts any day. Wall has no problem getting to the basket on any possession in which he chooses to, and as he learns to finish better around the rim, he’ll see an increase in both field goal percentage and points. He’s a much better bet to improve his percentage than Rubio, whose points often come off of jumpers.
The categories that Rubio beats Wall in aren’t as drastic as the ones the Wall trumps Rubio in. You’re crazy if you’re going to draft a player with less upside because he gets a steal more per game and has the upside to average double-digit assists. When it comes down to it, Wall has one of the highest ceilings in the NBA, and as he grows as a player, his stat lines will reflect. Don’t sleep on both Wall and the Wizards as a team.
-KEVIN SMITH
Hit page 2 to hear why one writer would still take Rubio first…
RICKY RUBIO
Ricky Rubio will have every chance imaginable in the 2013-2014 season to become one of the NBA’s top fantasy point guards. The 23-year-old Spaniard produces stats at a high level because of his uncanny ability to get teammates involved in the game. Rubio’s been coveted by coaches and general mangers around the league since he was torching “The Redeem Team” in the 2008 Olympics. I forgot to mention, he was only 17 years old, making him the youngest player ever to play in an Olympic basketball final. Bottom line, his basketball IQ will only improve and his ceiling is sky high.
The secret was out on Rubio’s Pistol-Pete-like creativity with the rock, but the real question mark was his shooting ability. I was shocked to see the amount of treys he hit during his rookie season, and I never expected him to rack up that many steals. The young point guard’s fantasy value booms because of that. Rubio finished his rookie campaign second in the league in steals, averaging 2.2 per game, behind only Chris Paul. He added about a trey a game in the 41 games he played in before suffering a torn ACL.
Rubio’s ACL injury remains the most credible concern for his fantasy value, and that’s completely reasonable. With training staffs and strength coaches knowing what they know today, I’m confident he will fully recover. In the 57 games Rubio played in the 2012-2013 season after suffering the devastating injury, he was limited to just over 29 minutes a game, down from 35 the season before. The Timberwolves guard still averaged a respectable 10.7 points, 7.3 assists and 2.4 steals per game. He’s proven he will hover around the league-leader in steals with Chris Paul, the usual top dog in that category. One of the safest picks in fantasy is players who are proven studs and still have a ceiling that’s completely unknown.
Although Rubio hasn’t been active for an entire season in his young career, he’s a proven fantasy commodity. He’s shown he has the ability to drop mad dimes when he’s on the hardwood. Not only does the Spaniard have an opportunity to finish at the top of league in assists, but he’s capable of leading the league in steals too. Boston Celtics All-Star Rajon Rondo is one of the most dominant head-to-head point guards in the fantasy realm, and he couldn’t knock down a shot from downtown if his life depended on it. That’s not the case for Rubio. He will contribute in the three-point category while dominating the typical point guard categories, an essential factor contributing to his fantasy value. I couldn’t be more anxious to see what kind of stats this kid is going to post in the 2013-2014 season. Fantasy owners, sit back and enjoy the ride.
-CHRIS DIGIOA
Who would you take first?
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