We’re still recovering from a fever dream we had after peeking at a hypothetical Conference-free playoff structure for the playoffs this year. But even with the Conference separation in place, there are plenty of questions as we come up on the final three nights of NBA action during the 2013-14 regular season. The Suns and Grizzlies are battling to get the final spot in a tough Western Conference, and they play tonight. The Heat and Pacers still haven’t settled who will have home-court if they — like most predict — meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. Let’s give the lowdown on the top five playoff races coming up on the end of the regular-season.
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5. Raptors vs. Bulls for 3-seed in the East
The Raptors and Bulls are both 47-33 and split their season series 2-2, but the Raptors have already won the Atlantic division, so they’ll win the first tiebreaker if they finish with identical records. If Bulls jump ahead by a game in each team’s remaining two games, they’ll secure the 3-seed, which means they face Miami in the second round. With the way the Pacers have looked over the last couple weeks, it might make for sense for both of these teams to lose their remaining two games.
Remaining Schedule:
Raptors* —> Bucks, @ Knicks
Bulls —> Magic, @ Bobcats
4. Rockets vs. Blazers for home-court in the first round
In the event of a tie, the Rockets own the tiebreaker since they won the head-to-head with the Blazers this season, 3-1. But Houston still has a tough game against San Antonio, even if the Spurs rest their starters, and the Pelicans in New Orleans. The Rockets are still up one game on the Blazers, with just two games remaining. The Blazers still have to face the Clippers in their season finale, so the Rockets will probably have home-court in the first round. Still, this is gonna be a slugfest with both teams considering themselves elite squads capable of going beyond the first round and possibly all the way.
Regardless of how this plays out, the winner of their first-round series gets the unenviable task of probably facing the Spurs in the second round.
Remaining Schedule:
Rockets* —> Spurs, @ Pelicans
Blazers —> Clippers
3. Wizards vs. Bobcats for 6-seed in the East
The Bobcats own the tiebreaker after winning the season series with the Wizards, 3-1. But the Wiz still have a game on the Bobcats, and they control their own destiny with the Heat tonight and a trip to Boston to finish the season. On the surface this doesn’t seem like that big of a deal, until you realize the No. 6 seed avoid the Pacers/Heat in the first round. The loser of this battle ends up as the 7-seed, and likely first-round opponents of the two-time defending champion Heat. So, yeah, even though the Raptors/Bulls are terrific teams in their own right, both Charlotte and Washington would rather their first-round matchup came against one of those teams.
Remaining Schedule:
Wizards —> Heat, @ Celtics
*Bobcats —> @ Hawks, Bulls
Click to find out the top two playoff races in the season’s final three days…
2. Heat vs. Pacers for top seed in the East
The Pacers hold a half-game lead over the Heat with one more win and the identical number of losses (55-26 vs. Miami’s 54-26), which means the Heat will only hold the top seed in the East if the Pacers lose their last game and the Heat win their final two. But the Pacers hold the tiebreaker: Indy and Miami split their season-series and don’t share a division, but Indiana has a 37-14 conference record, and Miami is at 34-16 in the conference this year. So the Heat can’t overtake the Pacers even if they finish with identical records.
While this might seem important — since Miami’s ability to play Game 7 on their home floor was the difference in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals — they still need to get to the Conference Finals and play to a standstill in their first six meetings. Over the last month Indy has looked lost, with lots of in-team bickering and offensive stagnancy since the break, but they’re still in control of their own destiny if they can get a win in Orlando on Wednesday after an impressive win over the Thunder on Sunday.
The Heat have all but conceded the No. 1 spot after falling to the Hawks on Saturday, and it’s looking likely that LeBron James and Chris Bosh sit out tonight’s game in Washington, since they didn’t participate in a full shootaround this afternoon. Plus, as we mentioned, the Wiz have their own race to contend with.
Remaining Schedule:
Pacers* —> @ Magic
Heat —> @ Wizards, 76ers
1. Suns vs. Grizzlies for the final playoff spot out West
The Grizzlies are a game up on the Suns, but they’re in Phoenix tonight for a game absolutely no one had circled on their calendar to begin the season. Now though, it might likely decide the fate of four teams, depending on what comes after. Right now the Grizzlies hold a game lead and the tiebreaker, so even if they end up losing tonight they can still grab the final playoff spot with a win on Wednesday. That’s because Memphis is 3-0 against Phoenix so far this season.
If the Suns win, the two teams will draw even, and Phoenix has an easier time of it with non-playoff team Sacramento remaining on their schedule. Sacramento might also be without star DeMarcus Cousins, who was assessed his 16th technical in a win over Timberwolves this weekend. He’ll have to sit the final game against Phoenix if the technical is upheld since 16 tech’s means an automatic one-game suspension. That’s good news for Suns fans — though pretty crappy for Boogie, who has been playing great of late.
In their finale, the Grizzlies will face off against a Mavs team that’s already clinched a return to the playoffs after missing out last season for the first time since the 90s. But here’s where it gets interesting, since the Mavs are one game up on the Grizzlies, but a half-game back of the Warriors for the No. 6 seed. The Dubs own the tiebreaker over the Mavs with a 3-1 head-to-head advantage this season, but if Golden State loses to Minnesota tonight and in Denver on Wednesday, and if Dallas wins out, they’ll leapfrog Mark Jackson‘s squad for the 6-seed. A 6-seed for Dallas means playing the Clippers, and not the Thunder.
So, you can bet that if Golden State loses to Kevin Love and Co. tonight, the Mavs probably won’t rest any starters on Wednesday when they’re playing the Grizzlies and with a win hoping to move up another seed if Golden State falters in consecutive games by losing in the Mile High air of Denver.
Phoenix, by far the best story and biggest surprise this season, and one of the most shocking surprises we’ve ever encountered in the modern NBA, has their backs up against the wall. They have to win tonight, but they’ll also need some luck: hoping that Golden State loses, which might force Dallas to play harder on Wednesday in their finale against the Grizzlies. Still confused? Even if you are, just know the Suns aren’t out just yet. But they have to beat Memphis tonight and get some more lucky bounces on Wednesday. The Suns can still do this, but it’s going to be tough.
Remaining Schedule:
Suns —> Grizzlies, @ Kings
*Grizzlies —> @ Suns, Mavericks
Warriors —> Timberwolves, @ Nuggets
Mavericks —> @ Grizzlies
*own tiebreaker.
Where does everyone finish?
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